Weaver's Tantrum

The Last Tantrum

2011-06-13T11:48:00.002-06:00

After three plus years of writing about the Orioles I have decided to shut down the blog. This is mostly a time management decision. I have a hobby that might turn into a profitable small business if I put more time into it. I also have a new female friend who I want to spend more time with. As a result I have given up my ESPN affiliation (congratulations to Camden Depot) and made the decision to stop writing in this space.

Since my time as a blogger coincided with Andy MacPhail's time as O's president I would like to wrap up with a few words about his tenure. The two adjectives I have most often employed to describe Andy M. are "competent" and "conservative." His free agent signings were often lamentable but he avoided the big mistake by limiting contracts to one or two years. His drafts have been solid with the notable exception of the Hobgood pick. While I have often wished Andy would get more active in the international market, he has delivered one top prospect (Schoop) and one of the best Japanese pitchers in baseball. Andy's early trades restocked an empty farm system and his later trades filled holes at the major league level. Andy gets credit for hiring Buck Showalter.

MacPhail's risk-averse approach has brought the team to a point where they are able to beat the worse teams in the league but are usually bested by the beasts of the AL East. Sadly, mere competence is not enough in the East. The O's remain the fifth best organization in the division, a fact highlighted by the massive haul of prospects the Jays, Rays, and Sox picked up in the draft last week. The Orioles don't have the money the Sox and Yankees have. They don't seem as good at finding the "extra 2%" as the Rays and Jays. Andy MacPhail succeeded in changing the Orioles from a laughingstock to a competitive team. Can he change them into a playoff contenders though? Can he land the big free agent bat? Can he make the risky trade pay off? I'm not so sure.

One thing I am sure of is that I will come to the Oriole BlogOsphere to find out. Some of the best sportswriting in the country is done on fan-driven blogs devoted to the Baltimore Orioles. Their passion is unbelievable. They pour countless hours into research and writing about a team that hasn't won since the Clinton administration and they do it for little or no monetary reward. Also, some of these writers are flat out brilliant. It has been a real pleasure to be a small part of a great community of fans and writers. Thanks to all of you for the links and feedback.

Go O's!

All-Time Young Orioles Team

2011-05-05T05:53:00.003-06:00

A few days ago ESPN.com ran a piece on the best seasons by players 22 years old and younger. Interesting reading. Here is a similar rundown for the All-Time Young Orioles Team. Criteria is 23 years old or less, minimum 200 AB, only that year taken into account.

C--Matt Wieters, 2009 (23). There aren't too many young catchers to pick from in Oriole history. Wieters' solid rookie season gets the nod.

1B--Eddie Murray, 1979 (23). Young Eddie rocked the American League that year. His .295/.369/.475 slash line with 25 HR helped the O's to the World Series.

2B--Bobby Grich, 1972 (23). This was Grich's breakout year (.278/.358/.415) and his first appearance in an All-Star game. He actually played more games at short than at 2nd in 1972, but this team already has a pretty good shortstop...

SS--Cal Ripken, 1983 (22). Cal won his first MVP this year and led the Orioles to their last World Series win. His .888 OPS was the second highest of any Oriole 23 years old or younger.

3B--Brooks Robinson, 1960 (23). Brooks won his first Gold Glove this year and went to his first All-Star game. Cal Ripken played his rookie season at third and really could have been here but I love the thought of a Murray/Grich/Ripken/Robinson infield. Even if it is only in my fantasies.

LF--Curt Blefary, 1965 (21). Curt is a player who is often forgotten by contemporary Oriole fans but he had some outstanding years in the mid '60s. He was Rookie of the Year in '65, pounding 22 HRs. After a down year in '68 the O's traded him for Mike Cuellar.

CF--Paul Blair, 1967 (23). This was the hardest spot for me to decide. You could make reasonable arguments for Adam Jones ('09) or Rich Coggins ('73). I went with Blair because of his glove. A .293/.353/.446 line doesn't hurt either.

RF--Nick Markakis, 2007, (23). Markakis is slumping so badly now it seems like a lifetime ago that he was 23 and every phase of his game improved every day. In '07 he OPSed .848 and started to build his reputation for nailing base runners.

DH--Boog Powell, 1964 (22). OK, so Boog played before the DH era. Still, I had to get both Boog and Eddie Murray on the team. After all, Boog had the best offensive season of any Young Oriole. In '64 his OPS was a beastly 1.005 with 39 HRs. He led the league with a .606 slugging percentage. BEASTLY, I say!!!

P--Mike Mussina, 1992 (23). At 23 years old Mussina was already the unquestioned leader of the pitching staff. He threw 241 innings, compiling a 2.54 ERA. The Orioles have had a lot of great young pitchers in their history but Mussina stands out.

P--Jim Palmer, 1969 (23). When selecting starting pitchers I was heavily influenced by innings pitched. In '69 Palmer pitched 181 innings, the lowest total on the "staff," but I couldn't ignore Palmer's 2.34 ERA and 16-4 record. The league hit .200 against him that year.

P--Wally Bunker, 1964 (19). Wally Bunker is the youngest player to earn his way onto this team. He showed enormous promise in '64, going 19-5 with a 2.69 ERA. Unfortunately he never got close to that level again. After a series of disappointing years the Orioles let him go to the Royals in the expansion draft. Bunker was out of baseball by the time he was 27.

P--Storm Davis 1984 (22). Davis is another pitcher who didn't live up to his early promise but he was awfully good in '84. He only allowed 7 HRs in 225 innings, compiling a 14-9 record, 3.12 ERA.

P--Dave McNally, 1965 (22). Gotta have a lefty in the bunch, right? In his first big year McNally went 11-6 with a 2.85 ERA. He established himself as a major part of the dynasty teams that were right around the corner.

CL--Gregg Olson, 1989 (22). My first impulse was to ignore relief pitchers for this team but I couldn't leave out Olson's incredible '89 season. He won the ROY award and got Cy Young and MVP votes as well. He rode one of the best curveballs I've ever seen to 27 saves and a 1.69 ERA.

As always, these "teams" are more art than science. The pitchers were particularly hard. Milt Pappas, Steve Barber, Ben McDonald, Jerry Walker, Brad Bergesen, and others deserve mention. I feel bad that there wasn't room for Ron Hansen who hit 22 HRs as a 22 year old second baseman in 1960.

My sincere hope is that I get to revamp this team next year to make room for Zach Britton. Maybe in a few years I'll have to figure out how to get Manny Machado in there.

On Deck--The Minnesota Twins

2011-04-18T06:37:00.002-06:00

There isn't much of a positive nature that can be said about the Orioles right now. They are in a seven game losing streak, the offense is catatonic, and the pitching is inconsistent at best. Eventually some of the bats have to wake up. Could the Twins be the team that does that?

Minnesota is in the same boat as the Orioles. They are one of only two teams in the AL with a worse team OPS than the O's .640. Their pitching has been up and down. They have questions in the pen. Matchups are:

Liriano (0-3, 9.42) @ Tillman (0-1, 7.30)

Pavano (1-1, 3.60) @ Arrieta (7.04)

Blackburn (1-2, 3.06) @ Britton (2-1, 2.75)

Baker (0-2, 4.50) @ (Guthrie 1-2, 3.32)

Clay Rapada is joining the Orioles pen. He did a nice job against lefties with Texas last year.

On Deck @ The Cleveland Indians

2011-04-15T06:15:00.003-06:00

If, in March, a prophet foretold that the Orioles would have a 6-5 record after playing the Rays, Tigers, Rangers, and Yankees, I would have felt very satisfied. For some reason it doesn't feel as good as it should. Am I down on the team because of the four game losing streak? The anemic offense? The beating the Yankees delivered? The inconsistent pitching? The Gregg-Gonzalez combo? Yes.

Next, the Orioles travel to Cleveland to play the Indians. The Indians have spent the last decade trading away good players for prospects. When I look at the names on their roster I alternate between thinking "who's that?" and "I thought they traded him..." Somehow they are in first place with an 8-4 record. It's good to be in the AL Central.

Which team's winning record is more illusory? We'll know soon. Matchups are:

Britton (2-0, 0.66) @ Masterson (2-0, 1.35)

Guthrie (1-1, 0.64) @ Tomlin (2-0, 2.63)

Bergesen (0-1, 3.18) @ Carmona (0-2, 6.11)

Things to Watch:

Gotta love the young pitching in this series. This is a look at the future for both teams.

Justin Masterson's weakness has always been against lefties. They hit .291/.379/.432 against him in his career. Masterson's numbers sparkle now but how about after Markakis, Scott, and the Oriole switch-hitters get their say? Maybe he is the tonic the offense needs.

If you just glance at Kevin Gregg's baseball card stats (0-0, 2.25, 1 SV, 1 BS), it doesn't look that bad. If you have watched the games though you know that if Nick Markakis doesn't crash the wall against the Rays, Gregg is a repeat of 2010 Mike Gonzalez. Gregg had a bad spring that included time spent at minor league camp trying to fix his mechanics. Now he is off to a bad start. Will the O's keep running him out there? Will Koji get the ninth inning back?

Small Samples

2011-04-14T20:52:00.002-06:00

Subtitle: Yeah, they'll get better, but...

Kevin Gregg probably won't carry a 2.00 WHIP through the season, but...does he have to work out his problems in the ninth inning of a close game against the Yankees? How about him pitching the ninth inning of six run ballgames until he gets himself under control? Koji was sitting right there in the bullpen tonight. He hasn't walked a man since Sadaharu Oh was a pup. Instead we had to watch Gregg give up a home run to blow the save and Mike Gonzalez take the loss with poor control.

Derrek Lee probably won't finish they year with a .575 OPS, but...does he have to knock the rust off in the 3 spot in the lineup? Why not let him work in the seven hole and move up Mark Reynolds (.789 OPS). Even Luke Scott (.691 OPS, .375 OBP) would be an improvement since he is drawing some walks and doesn't seem to ground into DPs at critical times.

Chris Tillman took an unholy beating last night and is the proud owner of a 7.30 ERA, but...we are all going to live with him until Brian Matusz comes back from injury. Here are Norfolk's starters:

Ryan Drese: 8.18 ERA, 1.82 WHIP

Rick VandenHurk: 5.40 ERA, 1.80 WHIP

Chorye Spoone: 5.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP

Michael Ballard: 6.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP

Mark Hendrickson: 9.45 ERA 1.65 WHIP

Troy Patton: Injured.

There is no starting pitching help coming from the minors for the rest of the year. Could there be options outside of the organization? The Jays are trying to move David Purcey. He has been a train wreck so far in 2011 but at least he wouldn't cost much. The Twins might move Kevin Slowey, but they want a good player or two in return.

Tillman turns 23 tomorrow. Better to keep handing him the ball and see what he can do. At least until Matusz comes back,

On Deck--@ The New York Yankees

2011-04-12T06:47:00.002-06:00

The Orioles have collected wins on the strength of starting pitching. They are 5th in the league in team ERA, 11th in team OPS. The Yankees are the opposite, ranking 12th in ERA, 4th in OPS. Is Yankee pitching the cure for sickly Oriole offense? The O's are missing CC Sabathia's turn. Is the Oriole offense just the confidence boost the struggling Yankee pitchers need?

One major concern for this series is that the Yankees don't have to face either Jeremy Guthrie or Zach Britton. Matchups are:

Tillman @ Burnett

TBA (Bergesen?) @ Hughes

Arrieta @ Nova

Things to Watch

Chris Tillman suffered from diminshed velocity in his last start. Yankee pitcher Phil Hughes is in the same boat. Dave Cameron wrote a piece for ESPN Insider arguing that is common among power pitchers in April.

Speaking of Tillman, the Yankees absolutely own him. They hit .339/.444/.390 against him. Tillman has given up more walks than he has strikeouts against the Yankees.

Over the last 5 games, Vlad Guerrero has 8 hits including a home run and a double. Keep it up, Vladdy!

Guthrie & Britton

2011-04-10T22:55:00.005-06:00

In a weekend marred by offensive struggles and injuries, Jeremy Guthrie and Zach Britton stood out. Through the short season they have combined for 27.2 innings, a 3-1 record with a 0.65 ERA.

Jeremy Guthrie's biggest weakness has been his vulnerability to the long ball. So far this year he has allowed 1 home run in 14 innings, significantly better than his 1.2 per 9 inning career average. His performance is even more impressive given that he has been battling pneumonia.

Rookie Zach Britton has pitched 13.2 innings and looked good. His 6 walks allowed are definitely cause for concern but so far he has kept himself out of trouble by inducing 3 double plays and striking out 8. Shutting out the hard-hitting Rangers over 7 2/3 is a major feather in his cap.

The Orioles are 6-3, sitting atop the AL East. Guthrie and Britton have led the way.

On Deck--The Texas Rangers

2011-04-08T12:38:00.002-06:00

The thing that makes me most optimistic about this Oriole team is that they are 5-1 and I don't think we have seen their best ball yet. The middle of the lineup hasn't quite put it together yet, Buck has been juggling the starting rotation, and J.J Hardy and Luke Scott have lost time to minor injuries. In a sense the O's wins are smoke and mirrors. They are winning despite a .659 OPS, 10th in the AL. The pitching staff is keeping runs from scoring by holding opponents to an unsustainable .230 BABIP. Still, one of these days, the Orioles will have their two best starters back and Derrek Lee (.598 OPS) will start to hit. When that happens the O's might be able to put away the smoke machine and fun house mirrors.

This weekend the 6-0 Texas Rangers come to Camden Yards. The Rangers have a bruising offense that leads the league in slugging (.603) and OPS (.957). Those numbers come with the same "small sample size" warnings as the O's stats. It's also worth noting that their gaudy numbers were run up against the 0-6 Red Sox (hee-hee!!) and the 2-4 Mariners. Are the Rangers that good or are the Sox and M's that bad? This weekend should give a good indication.

Fri, Lewis @ Britton

Sat, Harrison @ Arrieta

Sun, Holland @ TBA (Guthrie???)

Things to Watch

Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing old friend Arthur Rhodes. Now in his early 40s, Rhodes has recreated himself as a dominating lefty specialist. I always enjoy seeing an Oriole alum having success.

Jeremy Guthrie is the biggest question for the Orioles. It would help the team greatly if he could come back from his illness Sunday and be effective against the Rangers. Otherwise the O's will be calling up a minor league starter to face the best offense in the AL. Ouch.

J.J. Hardy: Minor injury, or major? He has a pretty thick medical chart. Color me nervous.

Ranger pitcher Matt Harrison is going to be fun to watch on Saturday. He has been the definition of "replacement level" for the Rangers over the last three years (17-10, 5.27 ERA, 1.37 SO/BB). But last week he absolutely shut down the Boston Red Sox over seven innings. Which Matt Harrison will the Orioles see?

Ouch, My Hip...Back...Bicep...Elbow...

2011-04-06T06:08:00.002-06:00

"Justin Duchscherer will have an ablation procedure on his lower back..." Here is the WebMD explanation of an ablation. Apparently it blocks the nerves from sending pain signals.

Staying healthy is a blend of talent, skill, and luck. As most of us know, Duchscherer is missing some part of that equation. Here is a look at his injury history. It's probably incomplete but still impressive.

2001--Debut season. No official visit to the major league DL, but he was shut down the last week of the season with a shin injury. 14 major league innings.

2002--Wikipedia says much of this season was lost to a lower back injury but I could not confirm that. Take Wiki for what it's worth. 63 minor league innings, no time in the majors.

2003--JD spent most of this year in AAA. Rich Harden was on the same team. That must have been a trainer's nightmare. 16 major league innings.

2004--Healthy!!! Pitched 96 innings out of Oakland's pen.

2005--One trip to the DL with back spasms but still pitched 85 innings as a reliever.

2006--Missed 37 games with an elbow injury. 55 innings of relief.

2007--It gets really dicey around here. A right hip injury sent Duchscherer to the 60-day DL. 16 innings pitched.

2008--As a starter, Duch set his career high in innings pitched with 141 despite missing time in April (bicep) and August (hip).

2009--Missed the entire year after elbow surgery and a struggle with clinical depression. The Sun article I just linked is very sympathetic to Duch. A lot of people would have hit the "reset" button at that point in their lives. Duchscherer is still pushing through.

2010--Surgery on right hip. Pitched 28 innings.

2011--Hip still hurts. Pitched two spring training innings.

The Orioles gave Duchscherer an incentive-heavy contract hoping he would provide depth and give the young pitchers a little extra time in the minors. It was worth a shot but after going through that history I think the correct mindset is to forget Justin Duchscherer exists. If he is able to come back and pitch, great! I'll believe it when I see it.

On Deck--The Detroit Tigers

2011-04-04T06:20:00.002-06:00

It won't always be like this. The starters won't be able to carry their current 0.45 ERA through the whole season. Nick Markakis won't be able to reel in every hard-hit ball. Brian Roberts won't maintain a 1.000 OPS. It's great for now though. Over at ESPN, David Schoenfield writes "I'm not only drinking the Orioles' Kool-Aid, I've ordered a years' supply because I'm along for the ride." The O's will have some rough spots. The measure of the team will be how they respond to them. Right now, I'm going to enjoy getting some love from the Worldwide Leader. I'm going to enjoy being in first place in the AL East.

The Detroit Tigers are not off to quite so smooth a start. They lost two of three to the Yankees. They did score 19 runs though. They are a dangerous team. Matchups are:

Porcello @ Arrieta

Verlander @ Guthrie

Penny @ Tillman

Things to Watch:

The Pen--The starters have been great but the pen, especially Keven Gregg, looks iffy. How different would we feel today if Markakis hadn't been able to make that highlight reel catch to save the game on Saturday? Gregg still appears to be the closer but Buck Showalter doesn't seem like the type of manager to give him a long leash.

Jeremy Guthrie--Guthrie had one of the very best starts of his career on opening day, completely dominating the Rays. I'd love to believe that was the start of a career year. We'll know more after Wednesday's game. He gets a stiff test against the Tigers' big bats.

The Middle of the Lineup--Most of the offense against the Rays came from the top and bottom of the order. The big bats didn't show up. Derrek Lee is slugging .182. Vlad is slugging .167. Luke Scott is on the bench with a minor groin pull, probably until Wednesday. None of that is a huge concern now but if I am writing about it again before the weekend series against the Rangers, it will be troubling.

Las Vegas thinks the Orioles are a slight favorite over the Tigers. Cool.

Opening Day; Crazy Day

2011-04-02T15:53:00.003-06:00

Opening day started with the news that Brian Matusz had a sore back. He would have an MRI and miss his first start of the year. BOO!!

Opening day improved when Jeremy Guthrie dominated the Rays over eight innings. J.J. Hardy, Brian Roberts, and Nick Markakis provided the offense (see boxscore) but it was Guthrie's day. Our opening day pitcher allowed three hits and one walk over eight scoreless innings. I think it was Roger Craig who said "There are opening day pitchers, then there are pitchers who pitch on opening day." Guthrie sure looked like a real opening day pitcher against the Rays. YEAH!!

Later in the evening The Sun reported that Brian Matusz would miss 3-6 weeks with a muscle problem in his back. BOO!! Zach Britton would be called up to replace him. YEAH!!

As a wannabe GM I hate that the Orioles will lose a year of service time from Britton because of calling him up so quickly. As a fan, I promise I will be in front of the TV for his Sunday start.

Since Guthrie pitched yesterday, I want to point out Andrew G's excellent article over at Camden Chat, "Here's To You, Jeremy Guthrie." I often hesitate to write good things about Guts. I get attacked by some fans who look at his win/loss record. I get attacked from the other side by fans who say his peripheral stats aren't very good. Andrew tells me why it is OK to love Jeremy Guthrie. Thanks, Andrew...I'm glad Guthrie came through after you wrote that.

On Deck--The Tampa Bay Rays

2011-04-01T06:51:00.003-06:00

By the end of last year I was sick to death of writing these series previews. Now I can't wait to write because it's OPENING WEEKEND!

There are a lot of interesting narratives in play in Baltimore this year, but one comes into focus right away. Since he was hired, Buck Showalter has looked for ways to give his young players confidence and swagger. They won a few games in early August, got some injured players back, and were one of the hottest teams in baseball for two months.

Buck has worked hard to carry that momentum into this year. I believe his inflammatory comments about certain AL East rivals were calculated to give his players a sense of contempt for the Yankees and Red Sox, rather than the sense of awe they often display. In February, Showalter showed the Orioles a motivational movie with scenes from Oriole history including an overflowing, raucous Camden Yards. Still, nothing begets that winning attitude like winning. For the young players in particular a hot start would work wonders. Can the Orioles do it given their tough early schedule?

The Rays are coming off a busy winter than saw them rebuild their bullpen from the ground up, retool their offense, and trade a key member of their rotation. Still, they are an exceptionally talented team. Can the O's hang with them?

The O's send Jeremy Guthrie out for the opener against Rays ace David Price. Saturday is Matusz at Shields, Sunday will be Tillman at Davis.

More than anything, the Orioles need to show they are healthy and ready to go. Brian Matusz has as much talent as any pitcher in the Orioles' system but his spring was marred by minor injuries and bad outings. Brian Roberts, Derrek Lee, and Koji Uehara all missed much of spring training with injuries. Kevin Gregg was ineffective. Are these players ready? Can the youngsters get off to a good start? Can Gregg avoid a Mike Gonzalez-style meltdown?

It will be an interesting opening series.

"Final" Roster

2011-03-30T07:23:00.003-06:00

Barring a late injury the Orioles have their roster set. Via Roch:

PITCHERS

Jeremy Guthrie

Brian Matusz

Jake Arrieta

Brad Bergesen

Chris Tillman

Kevin Gregg

Koji Uehara

Mike Gonzalez

Jim Johnson

Jason Berken

Jeremy Accardo

Josh Rupe

POSITION PLAYERS

Derrek Lee

Brian Roberts

J.J. Hardy

Mark Reynolds

Matt Wieters

Nick Markakis

Adam Jones

Luke Scott

Vlad Guerrero

Felix Pie

Jake Fox

Cesar Izturis

Robert Andino

They look like they can score a lot of runs. Baseball isn't like other sports though. You can't just use your offense to control the clock. Sooner or later you have to get 27 outs. Can the O's do that? I'm seeing a lot of 8-6 games. Half of those pitchers are coming off injury, nursing minor injuries, or stunk it up in spring training or in 2010. Yikes.

Here is the lineup for the last spring training game which is presumably the everyday lineup.

Brian Roberts 2B

Nick Markakis RF

Derrek Lee 1B

Vlad Guerrero DH

Luke Scott LF

Adam Jones CF

Mark Reynolds 3B

Matt Wieters C

J.J. Hardy SS

There is a lot of potential there. But Buck Showalter had better have his magic wand warmed up and ready to go for the pitchers.

Deep Cuts

2011-03-29T06:25:00.004-06:00

The Orioles made a deep round of cuts. Team is coming into focus. Some interesting cuts were:

Nolan Reimold--Nolan is headed to Norfolk. There are a lot of ways to look at this. He outplayed Felix Pie this spring, but it didn't matter. Pie can back up all three outfield positions and is out of options. Nolan will never be mistaken for a center fielder and he has an option left.

Nolan had a very good rookie year in '09 but a terrible '10 marred by slow recovery from injury (he may have rushed back) and rumors of personal problems. After that awful year it doesn't bother me that he has to prove his readiness at AAA, but I do understand the argument that he should be getting the ABs scheduled for Vlad or Lee.

Reimold's demotion means Jake Fox is a shoo-in. Fox' spring slugging average is over .400 points higher than his career average, the biggest difference in both spring leagues. BTW, Jose Bautisa had the greatest differential last year. And John Dewan says high spring slugging averages often carry into the regular season. I'm not really on board with all that, but I do like having a power bat on the bench. Sometimes "hot" matters more than "good."

Mark Hendrickson and Clay Rapada--Both gone. Rapada to Norfolk, Hendrickson could hit the free agent market. We'll see. I hate seeing Hendo go. He grew up in Pennsylvania and was one of the few players who always seemed happy to be an Oriole. Roch says these moves mean Josh Rupe has made the team. Personally I would rather see the spot go to Tillman or Bergesen. I don't think Rupe's spring hot streak will last. I guess it doesn't matter much. The Orioles will be fiddling with the bullpen all year.

Rick VandenHurk is gone after a really disappointing spring. He has to clear waivers to get to AAA but he was bad enough for that to be a strong possibility.

Brian Matusz got hit by a line drive while pitching against some Oriole minor leaguers. The team says it is nothing but Matusz has to be a concern at this point. He had a wart removed from a finger, got hit by a batted ball yesterday, got shelled in his last spring start, and hasn't gone over five innings in any spring outing. He is still scheduled to pitch the team's second game on Saturday, but the O's left prospect Zach Britton on the roster instead of sending him to the minors as expected. Britton also pitched yesterday meaning he would be on schedule for Saturday. Seems more likely the Orioles would give a spot start to someone else, but the possibility of Britton is so tantalizing it is hard to ignore.

X-Factor: Zach Britton

2011-03-27T09:39:00.005-06:00

Zach Britton of the Baltimore Orioles is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. His sinker teases hitters by zipping towards the bottom of the strike zone then dropping out. Although he has enough power to miss bats, he isn't primarily a strikeout pitcher. The lefty makes his living by generating harmless ground balls with his sinker. In his minor league career Britton has induced nearly 3 times as many ground outs as fly ball outs (2.94 GO/AO).

Keith Law has 23 year-old Britton 11th on his Top 100 Prospects list, ahead of nationally known prospects like Aroldis Chapman, Kyle Drabek, and Jeremy Hellickson. This spring has been Britton's coming out party. In 14 spring training innings, Britton has yet to allow a run. He has been the best pitcher in Oriole camp.

Britton opened eyes last week when he threw five innings of shutout ball against a mixed group of New York Yankee regulars and rookies. Mark Teixeira said "You don't see a lefty with that much movement...It moves late and he throws in the mid-90s." Tex went 0-3 against Britton with two Ks and a ground out. Will Zach Britton spend the next six months in Baltimore, making the best hitters in baseball pound his sinker into the dirt in front of home plate? Maybe, maybe not.

As Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun explained after the Yankee game, if the Orioles wait until April 21 to bring Britton to the majors it will delay his free agency by a full year. As Connolly points out, it's an easy decision. 4 extra starts from Britton now, or 30 when he is in his prime? Of course Britton will spend a few weeks at AAA. He only has 12 starts at the AAA level anyway. A few more will be good for him. But that April 21 date is hardly carved in stone.

Tom Verducci at SI.com suggests the O's might wait until early June to call Britton up from the minors, a move that would save the team a year of post-arbitration salary. Baltimore did that a couple years ago with Matt Wieters. If the Orioles can find five reasonably competent pitchers to fill out the staff until June (unlikely) they could leave Britton in the minors until then. One more thing...with a career high of 153 innings, it's likely the Oriole front office will shut Britton down sometime in September to avoid wear on his arm.

So far I've established that Britton will pitch somewhere between three and six months of the season. That alone makes him a true X-factor, but his pitching could still use some polish as well. The late movement on his pitches costs Britton a certain amount of control. Oriole reporter Roch Kubatko recently wrote "...nobody--including Britton and his catcher--know exactly where it's going." We can be confident that Britton will keep it at the batter's knees, but there are questions beyond that.

Britton has run up some high pitch counts this spring. In his five inning showcase against the Yankees he threw 90 pitches, 52 for strikes. He clearly has to make some adjustments if he wants to go deep into games against patient major league hitters.

I would project Britton to pitch 100-ish ML innings with an ERA floating around 4.75 but there is a lot of uncertainty. Injuries or poor performances could force an early call-up. Britton could adjust more quickly or slowly to the majors than I imagine. He could react poorly to the amount of hype currently surrounding him or he could thrive under the pressure. He is an intriguing X-factor this season.

Spring Training Blues

2011-03-24T06:27:00.002-06:00

Spring is often characterized as a time of rebirth and hope. Over the years, sportswriters have given us many lyrical pieces using spring training as a metaphor for the pregnant potential of the vernal season. This spring though, the Orioles have given us plenty of reasons to worry. Will O's fans wind up wishing for six more weeks of winter?

Injuries have to be the biggest worry. The Orioles have many proven injury risks on the roster so this isn't a surprise. With only two spring innings under his belt, Justin Duchscherer is unlikely to be on the opening day roster. Koji Uehara, Brian Roberts, and Derrek Lee have missed most of spring training with injuries but all seem to be on the mend. Whether they can be ready for opening day is still in question. Roberts' situation is especially troublesome since the 2010 Orioles proved there is no replacement for him in the organization.

The pitchers have also given O's fans reason to worry. Much of February's optimism was rooted in the success of the young pitchers last August. It would have been nice to see them carry that momentum through spring. Sadly, that has not happened.

Brad Bergesen, Jeremy Guthrie, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz all have ERAs floating between 5 and 6. That's four-fifths of the projected starting rotation. Still, spring ERAs don't really matter. They are based on a small handful of innings, plus you never know who is working on a new pitch or technique. What is legitimately troubling is that the starters aren't making it out of the fifth inning. From a physical stamina perspective, how are they going to pitch seven innings in April when they can't manage five in late March?

The best Oriole starter this spring has been Zach Britton, who will start the year in the minors for contractual reasons. Justin Duchsherer's injury problems opened the door for former Marlin prospect Rick VandenHurk. Vandy responded to the challenge by thunderously crapping the bed. His 13.50 ERA should probably be even higher given his eight walks allowed in six innings. Silver lining? VandenHurk was probably bad enough that he will clear waivers. We can watch him again next spring.

The bullpen isn't looking much better than the rotation. Since Koji missed spring training and the accompanying physical conditioning drills, we can look forward to another year of him sweating through his cap and looking exhausted after three pitches. The Sun ran an interesting article yesterday about Kevin Gregg's spring struggles. Apparently he is at minor league camp trying to sort out his mechanics after getting lit up in some major league spring games. That's the back end of the bullpen.

Rebirth of spring? Meet the 2011 Baltimore Orioles.

Who the #@$% is Josh Rupe?

2011-03-20T09:47:00.003-06:00

Joshua Matthew Rupe is a non-roster invitee to Oriole spring training. Right now he is carrying a zero ERA in 11.2 spring innings. Most of those innings have come against other teams' non-roster invitees, so that ERA is deceptive. Still, it's time to take a longer look at the 28 year-old pitcher.

Rupe will be playing close to home. He went to high school at Greenbrier Christian Academy in Virginia. Young Josh pitched and played shortstop, leading his team to to the state title game in 2000. That year, Rupe went 6-1 with a 1.19 ERA, hitting .450. He was voted MVP of the Tidewater Conference of Independent Schools. BJ Upton, two years younger than Rupe, also attended Greenbrier.

The Rupester spent a year at Liberty then transferred to Louisburg College (North Carolina), whose website describes it as the "oldest two-year college in the nation." Louisburg has produced several notable players, including Otis Nixon and Razor Shines. Despite rumors of mechanical problems stemming from the transfer, the White Sox took Rupe in the 3rd round of the 2002 draft, 90th overall. They handed him a $440,000 signing bonus.

Rupe got off to a good start in the Sox' system but Chicago traded him to the Rangers as part of a package for Carl Everett in July 2003. Many observers thought Rupe was the gem of a package that included Frank Francisco. He was projected to be a major league starter with four pitches that were average or better. His sinker and slider were considered especially good. He shot through the Rangers' system and had a successful major league debut in 2005, going 1-0, 2.79.

Sadly, that was the career high-point for Rupe. He lost much of the next two years to elbow injuries. Since then he has been a replacement level reliever for the Rangers and the Royals, racking up more innings in AAA than in the majors.

Is there any reason why he will do any more for the Orioles? Nope. Rupe appears to be right-handed relief depth. In 81 career major league games, 142 IP, he has allowed 13 home runs and only has a few more strikeouts than walks (83/71). There is nothing in his last year or two that leads me to believe he is due for a breakout. If you want a more cheerful conclusion, here is a "hometown boy makes good" article from HamptonRoads.com.

Good luck, Josh.

Spring Training History

2011-03-04T06:50:00.003-07:00

The Orioles have a spring training record of 3-1. Cool. Here are the Orioles spring training records for the last 13 years:

1998...17-10
1999...13-12
2000...13-16
2001...18-13
2002...20-9 (First place in Grapefruit League)
2003...14-14
2004...12-16
2005...15-11
2006...13-17
2007...16-13
2008...10-17
2009...13-12
2010...12-17

In the past 13 years the Orioles have recorded seven .500 or better records in the Grapefruit League. During the corresponding regular seasons? You know.

Here is a little more. Three of last year's playoff teams had losing records in spring training. The Indians "won" the Cactus League.

Here is another study from Business Insider using much a much larger set of data. If I am interpreting their results correctly, they show a small (6%) connection between spring and regular season records.

Winning these games is more fun than losing them, and there is something to be said for building a young team's confidence. Still, it doesn't look like there is much connection between a winning record in the spring and a winning record through the summer.

Roberts' Neck

2011-02-24T06:51:00.002-07:00

Brian Roberts had an X-ray on his neck yesterday, causing concern among Oriole faithful. Buck Showalter was quick to reassure us though, blithely stating:

Muscle spasm. Nothing other than that...They didn't see any disk issues or anything. It is what it is. We've all woke up with a stiff neck...It's Feb. 20-whatever. He missed a day. We'll try to get him back on the field tomorrow.

While Buck has the full confidence of the editorial staff of Weaver's Tantrum, I'm not sure he understands the fragility of Oriole fans' confidence. Or of Brian Roberts' spine.

It was a year and a day ago that we learned Roberts' had a herniated disk in his back. On Feb. 20-whatever. Andy MacPhail told us not to worry and Brian Roberts spent all of spring training telling every reporter in sight that he would be fine soon. Not so much. Roberts was limited to 59 games in 2010. So with all due respect to Buck Showalter, I'm going to go ahead and worry. It may be that Roberts' years of playing in 150+ games are over.

On the positive side, this has been a clean spring injury-wise when compared with last year. At this time last year, Nolan Reimold was limping around left field with the grace a bow-legged Quasimodo. Brad Bergesen was still trying to explain how he managed to sustain an injury filming a commercial. And of course, Roberts. It was Feb. 20-whatever and the season was already beginning to unravel.

We were still three weeks away from wondering why Michael Gonzalez couldn't get his fastball out of the 80s; from Koji limping off the mound in Dunedin with a hamstring injury; from Felix Pie injuring his shoulder lifting weights.

In comparison, this spring has been calm. Alfredo Simon is still in jail in the Dominican, but he wasn't projected to be a big part of the team anyway. Last years' injured Orioles seem to be recovering well. So in the big picture the team looks healthy and ready. Everything that Buck said is true. Still, as a lifelong Oriole fan, I have become accustomed to unexpected catastrophe. For no logical reason I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. The shoe in question could well be Roberts.

Spring Training--The Rotation

2011-02-14T06:57:00.007-07:00

With pitchers and catchers reporting to Sarasota, it is time to take an early look at the O's pitching rotation.

Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz are in the enviable position of having made the team regardless of what happens in spring training. They can work on new pitches, work on their mechanics, work on their tans...barring injury they will be at the top of the O's rotation.

Brad Bergesen is a heavy favorite. He fills the "veteran innings-eater" role without the veteran price tag. Despite some short outings last year he has averaged 6.2 innings per start through his career; .3 innings better than league average. He finished strong last year (7-4, 2.88 ERA in Aug and Sept averaging 7.1 innings per start) and that is what Buck will remember. He would have to implode during spring training to lose his spot.

Justin Duchscherer is being called a shoo-in by most Oriole beat writers. They have inside access while I don't, but I still can see Duchscherer getting cut. The Orioles only guaranteed him $700,000. If he makes the team that number goes up to $1,100,000. After 10 starts, quickly escalating performance bonuses kick in. Via Cot's Contracts:

performance bonuses: $0.25M for 10 starts. $0.3M each for 13, 16 starts. $0.35M for 18 starts. $0.4M each for 20, 22, 25 starts. $0.5M each for 28, 30 starts

Are the O's going to take a $400,000 flyer on Duchscherer if he performs poorly in spring training? Obviously it depends how poorly, but this is not like last year when Keven Millwood sucked his way through spring training and still got the opening day call. Duchscherer is cheaper and the O's pitching is deeper.

His experience and 3.13 career ERA give him the inside track, but a weak spring could give other pitchers a way into the rotation.

Jake Arrieta strikes me as a cocky pretty-boy. He's Nuke LaLoosh without Crash's guidance. That's OK though. Brady Anderson struck me as a cocky pretty-boy but I found a way to appreciate his work when he was mashing home runs for the Orioles. Anyway, Arrieta spent July, August, and September in the Oriole rotation and finished the year with a two straight wins, so O's writers have anointed him the favorite for the 5th starter's spot. Is that so?

The Orioles shut Arrieta down with a couple weeks left in the season because of a bone spur in he elbow. He was scheduled for surgery but opted against it. Is he healthy enough for a full season? We'll see. He also walks nearly as many as he K's. In August and September he walked 13 and K'ed 14 but an improving ERA led people to believe he was adjusting to the majors. I'm not so sure. His wins in September were impressive but we are only talking about two games. If his control problem persist in spring I HOPE he gets sent down. The minors are made for finding control.

Chris Tillman is the likely beneficiary of a stumble by either Duchscherer or Arrieta. He should be. He dominated AAA last year, going 11-7, 3.34 with over three times as many strikeouts as walks. While he was at it he threw a no-hitter and a one-hitter. He has little to learn at AAA. One of these days the Orioles are going to have to drop him into the major league rotation and leave him there.

Rick VandenHurk came over from the Marlins in exchange for Will Ohman. The big Dutchman is out of options and would have to be passed through waivers if he doesn't make the team out of spring training. He is too versatile and affordable to have much chance of clearing so the O's are going to give him every chance to make the team. Nobody seems to give him much hope of making the rotation though. He either makes the team in the pen or he will be part of a trade to resolve a roster crunch. VandenHurk for Player to be Named.

Zach Britton has the stuff to make the rotation but he won't. The Orioles will leave him in the minors to push back his eventual free agency. Leaving him at Norfolk for two months now pushes back the his free agency by a year under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Too bad, I can't wait to see how his sinking fastball plays against major league hitting.

Ryan Drese has been getting some buzz lately. The non-roster invitee played for Showalter and new pitching coach Mark Conner in Texas. He had his best years there, going 14-10, 4.20 in 2004. He hasn't played a major league game since 2006 though. I love Drese as a "break glass in case of emergency" depth signing, but it doesn't say much for the young pitchers if he makes the team in spring.

Let the games begin!

The Lefties

2011-02-08T06:48:00.002-07:00

With spring training a mere four days away it is time to take a look at some of the positional battles that will take place. First up, the left-handed relievers.

The Favorite--Mark Hendrickson signed a minor league contract so the Orioles aren't ready to commit to him but he remains the favorite going into spring training. He has been with the Orioles for two years and is consistently healthy. That isn't faint praise. In a bullpen as full of injury risks as Baltimore's, staying healthy is a noteworthy skill. He is happy to be with the Orioles since he has family in Pennsylvania.

While his ERA jumped last year, his peripheral stats weren't bad. Per 9 innings, he struck out more, walked less, and allowed fewer HRs in 2010 than in 2009. A BABIP against of .353 and a FIP of 4.09 vs. an ERA of 5.26 suggest that Hendrickson was victimized by the Orioles' poor defense. He is versatile; able to fill many roles out of the pen. One thing he is not is a lefty specialist. Lefties hit .317 against him last year, .275 in '09.

Here is something I didn't know about Mark Hendrickson. His father was a Washington State trooper who was killed in the line of duty by a hit and run driver when Mark was five months old. Mark was raised by his mother and grandfather. Raise a glass to Trooper Thomas L. Hendrickson.

The LOOGY--Clay Rapada is the yin to Hendrickson's yang. While Hendrickson does everything moderately well, Rapada does one thing very well. He gets left-handed hitters out. In his major league career Rapada has held lefties to a BA of .186 and slugging % of .257. Last year, at AAA Oklahoma City, lefties hit .120 against him. Actually it may be unfair to say they "hit" .120 against him. .120 isn't hitting. It might be better to say they "dribbled" .120 or "flailed" .120.

This is why I am unwilling to concede that Hendrickson has a golden ticket to the major league bullpen. I have no idea what structure Buck Showalter has in mind for the pen. Does Buck see value in two matchup lefties (Rapada and Mike Gonzalez)? Will Gonzalez close, therefore not be available to face a tough lefty in the seventh inning?

Also, Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, Jim Johnson, and Jason Berken all battled injuries last year. What are the odds that all four are healthy and effective this year? Don't sleep on Rapada. He has a real chance to stick with the Orioles this year.

The No-Hope Duo--Troy Patton and Pedro Viola are both left-handed pitchers on the forty man roster, therefore they are invited to spring training. Neither has much of a shot at anything beyond AAA though. Even if the O's don't care about Patton's recent DUI, they seem to lack faith in him. He was called up three times last year and only appeared in one game. Pedro Viola pitched his way to a 17+ ERA in 11 games at Norfolk. He is 27 years old and probably won't get better. I can't explain why he is on the roster.

The Dark Horse--James Houser signed a minor league contract with the Orioles last week. No word yet on whether he gets a spring training invite. He was a farmhand for the Rays and Marlins. Last year he put up respectable numbers at AAA, earning a 3.67 ERA and striking out 7.5 per 9 innings.

Houser lives near the Orioles new spring training facility in Sarasota; probably a big reason he signed with Baltimore. He looks like minor league depth, but he is out there and you could see him warming up at the end of spring training games in case of extra innings. Welcome, James!

Vlad the Oriole

2011-02-04T17:27:00.002-07:00

ESPN reports that the Orioles have reached an agreement with Vlad Guerrero. The deal is for one year, 8 million dollars. 8 mil is high for an almost 36 year old DH with bad knees but it isn't my money. Besides, he hit 29 home runs last year. He'll look good in the middle of the lineup. And to paraphrase Adam Jones, at least Oriole outfielders won't have to chase the stuff he hits anymore.

Vlad went .300/.345/.496 last year while playing his home games in a hitters park with the Rangers. He faded in the second half so there is no certainty but you have to believe Vlad's right-handed power will play well in Camden Yards. I know talk of lineup protection is unfashionable in sabermetric circles, but who knows? Put Vlad in the five hole and maybe Luke and Reynolds will see a few more strikes. A boy can hope, right?

This move will likely send incumbent DH Luke Scott to left field which isn't the end of the world. Luke was a perfectly adequate fielder in 2008, the last time he spent significant time out there. UZR said he was a shade above average in '08 and for his career. I doubt he has regressed too much in the last two years. I'm actually happy for Luke. He was a reluctant DH who said he focused better when he played in the field. He kept complaints to a minimum though and now he gets to move back to the outfield.

Felix Pie will move to the bench to make room for Luke in left. Pie will be a great fourth outfielder. He can back up all three outfield positions, has sneaky power, and enough speed to make pitchers nervous when he comes in as a pinch-runner. As a full-time player he was incapable of staying healthy for an entire year. Maybe he can handle a season's worth of wear and tear as a backup.

Nolan Reimold will probably get bumped to AAA. Like Pie, Reimold needs to show he can stay healthy and be productive through an entire season. After his nightmare 2010 season I can't blame the Orioles for making Reimold compete for major league ABs. Last year he only hit .249/.364/.374 IN THE MINORS!!! For Baltimore he was a dismal .207/.282/.328. One can easily blame his Achilles injury for his lack of performance but a look at Reimold's career shows that he is almost always injured. He lost big parts of '09 and '10 to his Achilles. He was limited to 59 games in '07 by an oblique problem. He was slowed in '06 by nagging back and foot injuries. Reimold SHOULD have to prove he can contribute to the Orioles. Let him start the year at AAA. If he looks like the Reimold we saw in the first half of '09 then the O's can swap Vlad for a low-level prospect and promote Reimold. Besides, Reimold will probably benefit more from playing every day at Norfolk than he would platooning with Felix Pie in Baltimore.

So, the eight million dollar question: Is this a good signing? I think Vlad's agent tricked the O's into bidding against themselves. 8 mil is way too much for a player who didn't seem to be in demand anywhere else. Aging DHs Jim Thome (1 yr, 3 mil) and Manny Ramirez (1 yr, 2 mil) signed for much less. There is a benefit in terms of depth, but 8 million is a lot to pay for depth.

Since it isn't my money though the key question is whether you believe in Pie or Reimold. If you do, you are probably upset that they will lose major league development time. Personally, I don't think Felix Pie will ever be more than a fourth outfielder. His bat isn't good enough for an everyday left fielder and he is too fragile to play every day. Reimold has the potential to put up better offensive numbers but staying healthy enough to do so would be a dramatic reversal of his career pattern. It is also worth noting that he is a terrible defender (-12 UZR/150 career), although that might be injury related as well.

There is a lot to be conflicted about here. The O's overpaid for a player who adds nothing over the long run. He is exciting though and he adds a badly needed bat. They pushed back two players who probably won't turn into quality starters, but there is always the off chance one of them surprises us. As a fan I know I will enjoy it when Vlad golfs a ball off his shoestrings and over the left field wall. So I guess I'm behind this in a weak way.

Is that wishy-washy enough?

Buying the Gloves?

2011-02-02T05:39:00.002-07:00

One of the simple truths of baseball is that good defense instantly makes pitching better. There are people out there who believe the famous Oriole pitchers of the 60s and 70s really wasn't that good. It was the defense that made Palmer, McNally, etc. into 20 game winners and Cy Young candidates.

A few years ago, Nate Silver with Baseball Prospectus ranked the teams with the greatest improvement in defensive efficiency. Here is that list, along with the corresponding improvements in team ERA which I pulled from B-R:

TEAM	DE CHANGE	ERA CHANGE
08 TBA	0.058	-1.71
80 OAK	0.049	-1.29
81 TEX	0.046	-0.62
91 ATL	0.039	-1.18
81 DET	0.034	-0.72
82 SDN	0.034	-0.2
88 MIL	0.034	-0.79
71 SFN	0.032	-1.18
08 FLO	0.032	-0.52
68 CLE	0.03	-0.59

Avg. Ch.	0.0388	-0.88

Simple. Big improvements in defense mean fewer runs scored. Pitchers ought to love it, particularly ones who pitch to contact like Brad Bergesen or Justin Duchscherer. Have the O's improved their defense with their winter acquisitions?

Ty Wigginton was the O's first baseman last year and a notably bad defender. In fact he showed up on Rob Neyer's list of the decade's worst defenders (near bottom of article). New guy Derrek Lee is reputed to be a solid defender and fangraphs shows a string of positive UZRs over the last few years.

At short, Cesar Izturis might have lost a half a step, but he still played solid defense. His replacement, JJ Hardy, has an equally good glove and is two years younger. Izturis remains on the team, filling the infield bench role that Julio Lugo filled last year. Hardy/Izturis represents a defensive improvement over Izturis/Lugo.

I've read wildly conflicting scouting reports on Mark Reynold's defense, but every stat from fielding percentage to UZR/150 shows he has improved steadily over the last three years. I have a feeling some of the negative reports are influenced by his early performance at 3rd base. It appears Reynolds was a league average 3rd baseman last year and may still be improving. He is sure to be better than the Miggi Tejada/Josh Bell show that we saw last year.

Left field is the only other position that might see a change. The potential Vlad signing and the fragility of Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold make it hard to predict.

Still, the infield changes bode well for an overall defensive improvement and the O's need it. The young pitching has talent, Mark Connor is a proven pitching coach, and a defensive makeover can only help. The '08 Rays saw an entire pitching staff mature at once. A big part of that development was the huge improvement in defense (see above table). I'm certainly not predicting a Tampa-style turnaround, but the improved defense makes the young Oriole pitchers look a lot more promising.

The Showalter Effect

2011-02-01T06:49:00.002-07:00

Your view of the 2011 season is largely determined by your beliefs about the Orioles 34-23 finish under Buck Showalter last year. Showalter took over a team that was 32-73 and led them to a spectacular stretch run. How much of that was Buck's responsibility? How much of that is sustainable?

Buck has received a lot of credit from the fans but there were other factors at work. Brian Roberts, Felix Pie, Mike Gonzalez, and Koji Uehara all came back from long stays on the DL. Roberts in particular is an irreplaceable part of the O's lineup. Getting him back had a huge impact. Also, there is a argument to be made that at least some of the under-performing Orioles would have rebounded to their career averages regardless of who was sitting in the dugout.

Obviously there is no correct answer. Buck's arrival made a difference, the rebounding and recovering players made a difference. Still, every Oriole fan has made a gut decision on the topic and that decision builds the prism through which we view this winter.

If you think that Buck is 75% responsible for Baltimore's August turnaround then you probably believe the improved play is largely sustainable. You probably think you are looking at an 85 win team with an outside shot at contending for a wild card berth. You want Andy MacPhail to sign Vlad Guerrero because the extra win or two he would provide could make a difference.

If you think Buck is 25% responsible for the strong finish, you would see things differently. You won't believe that anything approaching 34-23 is sustainable. You see a 75 win team who will be lucky to compete for fourth place. You are leery of Vlad and even newly acquired Justin Duchscherer because they could take playing time from young players who need to be developed and evaluated.

In my professional life I have seen quite a few bosses come and go. Very few have a significant long-term impact. Put me in the 25% camp. Ultimately the players need the talent to play the game at a high level.

Throwing Pie

2010-11-28T17:11:00.002-07:00

You may have seen the below video of Felix Pie going monkey-butt crazy over a close call at first base.

I'm sure there is something to be said about Felix Pie's mental approach and how it impacts his play. Personally, I want to know more about the catcher. Dude threw a bullet from his knees to nail Pie. Andy MacPhail, if you're reading, how about getting a scout on that guy?

First Innings

2010-09-22T06:36:00.002-06:00

I have to confess that my work schedule often forces me to miss the first inning or two of every game. Right now, who cares? Two months ago it often meant the game was over before I got home and made dinner. I usually kept the game on as background noise while I did something else, but when your team has the kind of first innings the O's had in July, it's hard to watch every play with interest.

On the year the Orioles have been outscored 102-61 in the first innings. Although it would take a lot of research to get a full breakdown, its safe to say most of the damage was done before Buck got on the scene.

Kevin Millwood was the worst offender, allowing 39 runs. Jeremy Guthrie's 19 runs isn't stellar either. In both cases, the first inning is their worst.

It sure is nice to turn on the game in the second inning and see the O's are still in it. Only problem is that now I regret not being able to watch the first.

On Deck--The New York Yankees

2010-09-17T14:34:00.003-06:00

The ESPN TV ticker reads "Yankees look to get back on track against last place Orioles." The same last place Orioles that took the Yankees two games out of three in New York? Yup. The same last place Orioles who knocked the Yankees off track ten days ago? Yup. Those Yankees had won eight of their last nine when the Orioles came into New York and beat them up.

Including the Orioles visit to New Yankees Stadium the Yankees have lost seven of their last nine and have also lost first place to the Rays. And the hits just keep on coming...Mr. Yankee, Don Mattingly, will be the new manager of the Dodgers!!! Tough day to be a Yankee fan. Good day to be a Yankee hater. If the "last place Orioles" can pull off a fifth straight series win it will be even better. Matchups are:

A.J. Burnett (10-13, 5.13) @ Kevin Millwood (3-15, 5.30)
CC Sabathia (19-6, 3.03) @ Jeremy Guthrie (10-13, 3.74)
Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.88) @ Chris Tillman (1-4, 6.32)

Things to watch:

Yankee pitching. CC Sabathia is STILL looking for his 20th win. Andy Pettitte is coming off an injury. THIS is a pitching staff that is ready for a World Series? In the immortal word of Senator Clay Davis, "Sheeeeeeeiiiiiiit..."
Before the last Yankee series I wrote "Nolan Reimold hits .429/.438/.571 against the big man (CC Sabathia)." Reimold made me look smart by hitting a 2-run home run against Sabathia. Rumble young man, RUMBLE!
I really want to believe in Chris Tillman but he walked most of the city of Detroit in his last start. Six of them anyway. In his career, Andy Pettitte is 27-6, 3.57 against the O's. This match up couldn't be much uglier. Start drinking early for this one. I know I will. Possibly this afternoon.

Scoring Explosion

2010-09-15T06:24:00.003-06:00

Coming into the current series the Blue Jays had outscored the Orioles 70-23 on the year. Apparently Adam Jones and the O's wanted to even those numbers out in one game.

Last night the Oriole offense came to life and thrashed the Jays, 11-3. Jones was 2 for 5 with a two-run home run. It was a lovely, merciless beating of a team that has teed off on the Orioles way too often. If it weren't for new arrival Pedro Viola, who had some trouble finding the strike zone, the score would have been even more lopsided.

Can't wait for today's game.

Go O's!

On Deck--The Toronto Blue Jays

2010-09-13T06:05:00.002-06:00

No other team has embarrassed the Orioles the way the Toronto Blue Jays have. They have beaten the Orioles like a drum. The O's are 0-12 against the Jays and the games really haven't been close. Toronto owns a cumulative 70-23 scoring edge. Pretty much nothing has gone right for the Orioles including Adam Jones getting confused for the football Adam Jones at Canadian customs. Because of this horrible history, this series becomes the most interesting of the Showalter era to date.

If Buck can get the Orioles to perform against the Jays, who have dominated them, it will erase a particularly ugly stain on the season. Match ups are:

Marc Rzepczynski (1-4, 6.47) @ Brian Matusz (8-12, 4.71)
Shawn Hill (0-1, 5.06) @ Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.96)
Kyle Drabek (0-0, --) @ Brad Bergesen (6-10, 5.29)

Things to Watch

These don't look like the pitchers who dominated the Orioles in earlier series. Rzepczynski has an 8+ ERA over his last five starts, Hill is coming off surgery, and Drabek is jumping from AA to the majors. Still, the Jays have found a way all year...
Oriole pitchers have allowed 24 home runs to the Jays including 6 by Jose Bautista. Any way we can keep those numbers from rising any higher?
After his four-hit game on Saturday it seems the Adam Jones health watch is over. He has battled various nagging injuries for two years and it is good to see him relatively healthy in September.

Congratulations to Brandon Snyder on his first major league start. Now it's time to watch a significant test of Showalter Magic.

Luke Scott--Tiger Killer?

2010-09-11T21:55:00.002-06:00

Luke Scott has a well-earned reputation for destroying the Detroit Tigers. His OPS against them was 1.407 in '09. In '08 his OPS against Detroit was 1.940 including 5 home runs.

In two games this year, Luke is a respectable but not spectacular 2 for 8 with one walk. Both hits were singles. Will Luke turn it around?

It didn't help him that he lost the fun of hitting against Dontrelle Willis. To be fair, lots of American Leaguers liked hitting Willis, but not too many did it as well as Luke. Although he only faced him in one game, Luke hit two home runs off Willis. His OPS against the D-Train is 3.000. Instead of Willis, Luke had to face Max Scherzer tonight. Scherzer gave him a lot more trouble than Willis.

The Tigers haven't given up all of Luke's favorite pitchers though. Tomorrow afternoon they are sending Justin Verlander to the mound. Luke is .364/.417/.818 against Verlander with a 1.235 OPS. Go Luke!

Millwood and Guthrie in the 6-Man

2010-09-09T22:33:00.002-06:00

Between the days off in September and the various starting pitching prospects the Orioles want to take a look at, it's clear that the starters will get more rest than normal. There is no telling how the youngsters will respond. They don't have enough of a track record to make a prediction. Both Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie have been around the block a few times and have had different reactions to extra rest days.

Kevin Millwood loves extra rest. If you gave him eight days off he would probably throw a no-hitter for you. On his regular four days rest, Millwood's stats are:

4.39 ERA, 1.342 WHIP in 248 starts.

Here is Millwood with five days of rest:

3.86 ERA, 1.325 WHIP in 99 starts.

Now with six days or more off:

3.34 ERA, 1.235 WHIP in 48 starts.

Jeremy Guthrie is opposite. He pitches his best on his normal four days of rest. On that schedule:

3.50 ERA, 1.198 WHIP in 66 starts.

Guts goes downhill when given an extra day off. With 5 days rest:

4.86 ERA, 1.298 WHIP in 40 starts.

Although Guthrie has only started 12 games with 6 plus days of rest, there is nothing reassuring there.

4.59 ERA, 1.558 WHIP.

The biggest culprit for Guthrie has been the home run ball. With four days off he allows 1.16 HRs per nine innings. Given an extra day off, the number is 1.42 per 9. It is less clear why Millwood does better. His HRs are stable with extra rest. He walks a few less batters, but also Ks a few less.

Naturally I want both pitchers to be as successful as possible in September, but given their past record with extra rest, it looks as though Guthrie might have a harder time of it than Millwood.

The Yankee Series

2010-09-06T22:15:00.002-06:00

Just an abbreviated look at the Yankee series because of the fun, but tiring Labor Day weekend. I did get to watch the first game but wasn't in a place to sit down and write. It was a great game though. I particularly enjoyed making Bell/Burnett tattoo comparisons. As always, I enjoyed Francisco Cervelli's oversize helmet. Anyway, on to the remaining matchups.

Jake Arrieta (4-6, 5,11) @ CC Sabathia (19-5, 3.02)
Brad Bergesen (6-10, 5.47) @ Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.89)

Things to Watch

If, like me, you watch a lot of games with the opposing teams' announcers, you have to love Ken Singleton. Not only is he a smart analyst who is easy to listen to, he also made a nice speech about the importance of the Ripken Streak on the anniversary of 2131.
Pedro Viola got called up? He wasn't very good in the minors. I guess if you are left-handed you get a look no matter what.
Sure, CC Sabathia owns the Orioles. Not all of them though. Nolan Reimold hits .429/.438/.571 against the big man. That is only over 16 plate appearances but given how ugly that game looks for Baltimore, I'll take any positive I can find.

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. Back to work tomorrow.

Oriole Mangers' Wins

2010-09-05T10:55:00.002-06:00

Buck Showalter earned his 900th win last night. I'm glad for him. Those milestones are nice and it gives the national media something positive to say about the Orioles for a change. It doesn't mean much else given that more of those wins were at the expense of the Orioles than were for them. In fact, 313 of those wins came while he was with the Yankees.

As Showalter said, "It means I've had some good players and someone's given me an opportunity to do this a long time. That's about the extent of it. I've had a lot of losses, too." Buck has 846 career losses and unless the Orioles have the most dramatic turnaround in MLB history, he will get his 900th loss sometime next summer.

The milestone did get me wondering about the career records of other notable Oriole managers. Here is the list. Remember this is career wins. Buck obviously doesn't rank very high on the list for Oriole wins.

Earl Weaver 1480

Jimmy Dykes 1406

Mike Hargrove 1188

Davey Johnson 1148

Frank Robinson 1065

Paul Richards 923

Buck Showalter 900

Johnny Oates 797

Hank Bauer 594

Billy Hitchcock 535

Lum Harris 466

Joe Altobelli 437

Ray Miller 266

Dave Trembley 187

Lee Mazzilli 129

Sam Perlozzo 122

Phil Regan 71

Cal Ripken, Sr. 68

Jimmy Dykes surprised me. I always thought of him as the answer to a trivia question. Who was the first manager of the modern Baltimore Orioles? Jimmy actually had some good years with the White Sox and had 1107 career wins when he came to the O's.

Baseball Almanac lists Juan Samuel as the only Oriole interim manager not to get the full time job. I'm not sure why Lum Harris isn't in the same category. Did they not have a formal "interim" tag in 1961?

On Deck--The Boston Red Sox

2010-08-31T06:45:00.002-06:00

The Orioles of August are a different team than they have been the rest of the year. The starting pitching has been a strength, a couple pitchers in the pen have been playing well, and the hitting has been good enough to win games. The team recorded its first winning August in 13 years. If you are an optimist there is a lot to smile about. But then there is this.

Most of the winning has been done against the AL West and Central. That part of the schedule is officially over. Over the next five weeks, all but seven games are against the AL East. If you are a pessimist, you know the O's are going to take their lumps through that stretch.

The Red Sox are first up. They are seven games behind the Yankees and Rays, who are tied for first. The way the top two teams are playing it looks like the Sox are out of the playoffs but they aren't ready to admit that yet. They desperately need wins over the Orioles to stay alive. They will pull out all the stops. Matchups are:

Josh Beckett (4-3, 6.50) @ Brian Matusz (6-12, 4.79)
Jon Lester (14-8, 3.12) @ Jake Arrieta (4-6, 5.10)
Dice K (8-4, 4.19) @ Brad Bergesen (6-9, 5.55)

Things to Watch

Call Ups! As a fan, I have changed my mind on this. A week ago I wanted to see waves of young players getting a look. After watching the sweep of the Angels I would rather see the Orioles stay with what is working, take a shot at being a spoiler and putting up a decent September record. I would like to see the bench get longer. Call up Matt Angle, Nolan Reimold, maybe Michael Aubrey. Otherwise, stick with the current program for another week until Norfolk's season ends.
Koji!!! It was thrilling to see that his recent hot streak has turned him into a Type B free agent. A walking draft pick according to mlbtraderumors.com. He just needs a solid finish to the year.
Just a loss or two put the Red Sox in exactly the same place as the O's. Out of the playoffs. If you are lucky enough to attend a game you might take the opportunity to remind the nearest Sox fan of that. Red Sox fans' tears are like rainbows and candy.

Buck Showalter: The Next Paul Richards?

2010-08-29T22:05:00.002-06:00

A blog entitled Weaver's Tantrum might be expected to compare every Oriole manager to the great Earl Weaver. Based on their career paths though it seems clear that Buck Showalter bears a greater similarity to another important, but often overlooked Oriole manager, Paul Richards.

Richards came to the Orioles in 1955 with a reputation for rebuilding downtrodden teams. By stressing speed and defense he built the moribund White Sox of the early 1950's into pennant contenders. The 1954 Orioles were a 100 loss team coming off decades of futility as the St. Louis Browns. They felt they needed a manager who knew how to rebuild from the basement up. Since Showalter was hired for his proven ability to turn franchises around, the parallel is obvious.

Richards was a control freak. His deal with the Orioles made him the first manager/general manager in the majors since John McGraw filled both roles for the New York Giants fifty years earlier. Richards decided which players to sign, how to train them, and how to play them. He was good at finding young talent (Brooks Robinson, Milt Pappas, Steve Barber) and also at identifying unknown "nuggets" from other organizations (Jim Gentile, Gus Triandos).

Is Showalter a control freak? Rumor has it he once expressed a strong opinion on what TP should be in the clubhouse bathrooms. A Google search of his name and "control freak" brings up 7990 results. Showalter won't get the GM title as Richards did, but there is a very good chance he negotiated a role for himself in personnel decisions.

Richards' savvy personnel moves and sound player development ideas (which later evolved into the Oriole Way) laid the foundation for the Oriole dynasty of the 1960s and 70s. Richards wasn't around to see it though. His best finish with the O's was a second place finish in 1960. He couldn't get the team over the hump. The hump was the New York Yankees. After a disappointing finish in 1961, Richards left to take on another project; building the expansion Houston Astros. But the stage was set for the successes of Hank Bauer and Earl Weaver.

It is hard to learn much from what Showalter has done in Baltimore so far. Most of it has been behind closed doors. Based on his past record, Showalter is a rebuilder in the mold of Paul Richards. That's not to say that Buck won't ever win a pennant or even a World Series. But if Showalter can do what Richards did...if he can turn the flailing Orioles into contenders with a firm foundation of young players...then he, like Richards, will be one of the very valuable men in Oriole history.

Pie Steals Signs; Blog Shrugs

2010-08-26T06:30:00.002-06:00

White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle is upset with Oriole outfielder Felix Pie for ALLEGEDLY stealing signs. Whatever.

If the White Sox don't like Pie's activities once he is on base, they can keep him off base. It is nobody's fault but their own if Pie goes 5-7 with a walk in two games. It isn't that easy to walk Felix Pie. Or the Sox can quit being lazy and change up their signs.

Hey Felix, if it works for you, keep it up.

On Deck @ The Chicago White Sox

2010-08-24T05:56:00.002-06:00

The Orioles are 12-9 in August with 7 more games to go. They need to win three of those games to have their first winning August since Fiona Apple was pumping out hits. They have the White Sox and Angels coming up, the same teams the O's took 6 of 7 from three weeks ago. Under Buck Showalter, even when the Orioles lose they look competitive. Not at all like last month, when the team was drawing comparisons to baseball's all-time worst clubs.

On the other hand, the White Sox have been in a free fall since the series against the Orioles. Starting with that series, they are 5-11, and are in real danger of falling out of the race in the AL Central. The Twins have taken a 4 1/2 game lead and are playing great ball. It's do or die for the Sox. Matchups are:

Jeremy Guthrie (7-9, 3.97) @ Gavin Floyd (8-10, 3.97)
Brian Matusz (4-12, 4.97) @ Mark Buehrle (12-9, 3.87)
Jake Arrieta (4-5, 4.90) @ Edwin Jackson (1-0, 1.35)

Things to Watch

It would sure be nice if one of the young pitchers started to show a little consistency. After a miserable July, Brian Matusz has given the O's three quality starts in four August outings. His last was his best, an eight inning, five hit performance. Wouldn't it be great to see him finish strong?
Jeremy Guthrie is 2-0, 1.80 in his last two visits to Chicago. His opposite number, Gavin Floyd is coming off two starts in which he allowed 13 runs in 12 innings.
Luke Scott is going to own the Orioles in arbitration this year. He is leading the team in batting, slugging, OPS, OPS+, and probably some other stuff. Finish strong, big man. Get your payday. Also, congratulations on your 100th HR.
Will Koji get more save opportunities? Buck waffled on that point recently.
We have hardly seen Craig Tatum since his recall. 6 PA in two weeks. Did he do something wrong?

September Call-Ups

2010-08-23T21:11:00.002-06:00

Looking ahead...because that is what Oriole fans do in August...is there anyone who would be fun to watch in September? Someone who deserves a look at the major leagues? Chris Tillman and Nolan Reimold are both in a position to get a September promotion but they have both been here before and don't have that new car smell anymore. Here is who I want to see:

Zach Britton--The number one prospect still in the minors. He hasn't been as dominant at AAA Norfolk as he was at AA Bowie, but that famous heavy sinker keeps him at the top of prospect lists. He has only thrown 136 innings this year vs. 140 and 147 in the last two years. There is no reason he can't throw in the 170 range this year. Bring him up and give him a taste of the big time!
The experience can only help next year.

Matt Angle--Matt Angle has been hot at Norfolk. He has NO power. For instruction Angle studies tape of Mark Belanger's home run stroke. Angle does carry a .383 career minor league OBP and he can steal bases. Both those skills are lacking in Baltimore. He'll probably never be a starter, but he reportedly plays good defense in center. A player who has good defensive skills, on-base skills, and can steal second (141 MiL SBs) would be great to have on the bench. Let him audition for the 2011 4th outfielder job.

Dennis Sarfate--The O's always call up an extra reliever or two in September and Sarfate is the best of the bunch at Norfolk. He is ringing up 11.9 Ks per nine innings. His 4.6 walks per nine is troubling, but that's what September is all about. If he can keep the walks steady, he deserves a look in spring training 2011. If he walks the entire AL East, the Orioles can let him go over the winter.

Joel Guzman--He's a dark horse, but I would love to see him get a look. He was once a top prospect with the Dodgers but it didn't work out. He spent his summer hitting 28 HRs for Bowie. Like Ty Wigginton, he can play almost every position, but none of them very well. Wiggy may not be around next year. Why not give Guzman the opportunity to audition for a super-utility role?

None of these players are sure things to break camp next year with the Orioles and none are on the current 40 man roster. As Dave Trembley used to say though, "competition is a good thing." Put them on the roster and let them fight for their spot in the spring.

Congrats, Josh Bell

2010-08-22T22:48:00.002-06:00

I spent the last few days at Leadville, Colorado, supporting a friend who ran the Leadville 100. That's a 100 mile trail run entirely over 9000 feet above sea level. It's an incredible endurance challenge and I'm thrilled with my friend's success.

I saw two finishers from Maryland. They performed a near miracle in going from near sea level to the high Rockies and competing in a race like that.

A quick look at the box scores of the games I missed shows that I owe congratulations to Josh Bell who hit his first two major league home runs in a win against the Rangers. Great work, young man.

On Deck--The Texas Rangers

2010-08-19T06:00:00.002-06:00

Has the Buck Bump worn off? After winning three straight series, the O's have lost two in a row, the last one against the dysfunctional Mariners. They still seem to be playing better baseball than they were a month ago, but talent is talent and the Orioles come up short in that department. Jeremy Guthrie and Luke Scott are good players but when they are your best, you have a problem.

The Rangers are coming to town for a four-game series this weekend. They are up by eight games in the West but really aren't playing well. They have lost 7 of their last 10 including the last three to Tampa. Does that mean they are slipping into complacency or does that mean they are due for a huge series? Knowing the Orioles...

Matchups are:

Colby Lewis (9-9, 3.28) @ Brian Matusz (4-12, 5.28)
CJ Wilson (11-5, 3.19) @ Jake Arrieta (4-4, 5.23)
Cliff Lee (2-3, 3.44) @ Brad Bergesen (4-9, 5.80)
Tommy Hunter (9-2, 3.71) @ Kevin Millwood (2-13, 5.49)

Things to Watch

Back in July the Orioles got to Cliff Lee for 6 runs over 9 innings. Can they repeat that fluky performance?
Kevin Millwood has been on a warm streak lately. In his last three starts he has totalled 21 innings, allowing only 5 earned runs.
Will Rick VandenHurk get a good look or is he in the Mata/Gabino mold? Will he pitch a few bad innings and get relegated to the end of the bench?
Is Buck's familiarity with the Rangers worth any runs?

This isn't related to the Rangers but I want to throw it out there. Every time Dave Trembley scratched his nose there were ten bloggers crawling up his butt about how statistically stupid it is to bunt. I've seen more anti-bunt rants this year than any human being should be subjected to.

When Adam Jones laid down a game-winning bunt a couple nights ago I was shocked to learn that it was the greatest thing since Fruit Loops on game day! Funny how a few wins change peoples' viewpoints. I know the situation was ideal; fast runner, bad fielder, only needed one run. Still, I watched a dramatic change of opinion on bunting in the Baltimore blogging community.

On Deck--The Seattle Mariners

2010-08-16T06:18:00.002-06:00

The Showalter Orioles lost their first series over the weekend to the Tampa Bay Rays. It was going to happen sooner or later and the Rays are a good team. No shame in it. Now the Orioles come home to face the Mariners who appear as lost as the O's did a few weeks ago. So far this year the M's have fired their manager, pushed their all-time most popular player (Ken Griffey, Jr.) into retirement, and seen their biggest free agent signing of the winter bust terribly. To be fair, Figgins is having a nice August, hitting .347.

It's nice to go into a series as a hot favorite facing a bumbling organization. Is this how Oriole opponents have felt for the last decade or so? Matchups are:

Doug Fister (4-8, 3.86) @ Brad Bergesen (4-9, 5.84)
Luke French (1-3, 4.96) @ Kevin Millwood (2-12, 5.74)
David Pauley (1-4, 3.31) @ Jeremy Guthrie (7-11, 3.88)

Things to Watch:

Brad Bergesen has experienced a sharper turnaround than anyone since Buck arrived. Three weeks ago he was on his way back to the minors. Now he is coming off his best start of the season and has three straight quality starts behind him. Doug Fister, his opposite number is solid though. Remember him throwing 7 innings of 3-hit ball against Baltimore back in April?
Luke Scott loves home cooking. He is .347/.404/.707 at home this year.
I'll be interested in David Pauley's performance. He spent last year at Norfolk and never cracked Baltimore's suspect 2009 rotation. He is getting his chance with Seattle.

What to REALLY Watch

Nothing on the field today is more important than the efforts to sign Manny Machado and other draft picks. Go accountants!

Draft Signings

2010-08-15T21:41:00.002-06:00

As I type, we are almost exactly 24 hours away from the signing deadline for this year's draft picks. The O's first round pick, Manny Machado, still hasn't signed, but nobody in the organization seems concerned. Scouting director Joe Jordan seems to think it will all fall into place at about 30 seconds till midnight on Monday. Judging by his success in signing first round picks, he is probably right. Still, it isn't an approach that is going to make the fan base feel good.

Jordan also stated (via The Sun) that the Orioles are giving up on signing sixth-round pick Dixon Anderson. They are also close to giving up on seventh-round pick Matthew Bywater. Both are college pitchers. Jordan says that he signed two prep pitchers instead.

I'm calling BS on this. Jordan is engaging in some hard-core brinkmanship. He is publicly showing he is ready to walk away in order to get Anderson and Bywater to lower their demands. It isn't the first time Jordan has handled high draft picks in this way. Does this quote sound familiar?

These players are very controlled by the people advising them. Guys are just going to have to understand that they're not going to get the money that they think they're going to.

That was Jordan at the end of July 2009. Although he didn't use a name, everybody knew he was referring to second-round selection Mychal Givens who was slow to sign. On August 12, Jordan announced he was withdrawing his offer to Givens. He was turning his attention to other prospects. Negotiations were dead. On August 17, Givens signed a contract with the O's.

Anderson and Bywater didn't enter the draft for kicks. The Orioles didn't draft them for show. How many times has Andy MacPhail talked about stockpiling young pitching? The two sides will take another stab at negotiations tomorrow and under the pressure of a deadline they should be able to get a deal done. Probably not for both players, but getting one signed is still a real possibility.

On Deck @ The Cleveland Indians

2010-08-10T06:44:00.002-06:00

The Orioles are on a real live hot streak and have what appears to be a winnable series against the Indians, who are also in "wait till next year" mode. The offense is hitting better, the defense has been solid, and the ridiculous mental errors that cost the team earlier in the year have been minimized. The starting pitching? I know that the Quality Start is an imprecise measurement, but when a team is throwing so many of them, it's doing something right.

The Indians aren't pushovers though, despite what the standings say. They traded a lot of veterans at the deadline and seem to have gotten a boost from the young players who came up in place of the vets. Matchups are:

Jake Arrieta (3-3, 5.07) @ Justin Masterson (4-10, 5.40)
Brad Bergesen (3-9, 6.26) @ Josh Tomlin (1-1, 2.79)
Kevin Millwood (2-11, 5.84) @ Jeanmar Gomez (2-0, 1.56)

Things to Watch

Brian Roberts has had his problems this year. His back has limited him to 18 total games. He is hitting .254/.321/.352, but he brought it last night with a 10th inning walk-off HR to beat the White Sox. It would be great to see Roberts finish strong this year. Next year would seem a whole lot brighter.
On the down side, Alfredo Simon is no more a closer than he is a ballet dancer. Over the last two weeks his ERA is 9.95. I know Michael Gonzalez left a bad taste in a lot of fans' mouths, but doesn't he look better now? How about Koji?
On the Indians side of things, Josh Tomlin and Jeanmar Gomez are working on replacing the production of the departed Jake Westbrook. So far they have done well. It will be fun to watch those kids play.

Things to Watch...for the future

The Mariners just fired Don Wakamatsu. He was Showalter's bench coach at Texas. Any chance he turns up in an O's uni next season?
There is some offense going on in Norfolk. Matt Angle is hitting .359 in his last 10 games. Nolan Reimold is .306/.409/.528 in the same span. Jeff Salazar has been solid all year. September call-ups could be interesting.

On Deck--The Chicago White Sox

2010-08-05T21:31:00.002-06:00

The Orioles have had other sweeps this season but this one, right after Buck Showalter took over, feels like something different. Exactly how different should be a question for a full post. Next week though. Weaver's Tantrum will be off for the weekend to run three legs of a relay over the Rockies.

Here are the White Sox. Enjoy the beginning of the Armando Gabino era. He has to be better than Frank Mata.

Danks (11-8, 3.40) @ Brad Bergesen (3-9, 6.63)
Floyd (7-8, 3.54) @ Millwood 2-11, 6.05)
Buehrle (10-8, 4.05) @ Guthrie (5-11, 4.21)
Jackson (7-10, 4.97) @ Matusz (4-11, 5.26)

On Deck--The LA Angels

2010-08-03T06:01:00.002-06:00

The Orioles enjoyed their first day off since the All-Star Break. Not to worry, fans could get non-stop Showalter coverage in lieu of a game. Buck is looking for nuggets, pile-jumpers, and the big guy who played Mel Gibson's friend in Braveheart. Andy MacPhail is looking for a "winning-type" environment. Both were a little smug about their potential for success. The Braveheart analogy is a little confusing, but otherwise it all sounded good. Buck also praised the team's flexibility, which implies changes are on the horizon.

First things first though. The Orioles are hosting the Angels. LA didn't want to look like they were giving up in the AL West so they picked up Dan Haren. Moving to the AL hasn't been a problem for Haren at all. Lucky Baltimore. Matchups are:

Bell (1-2, 6.46) @ Guthrie (4-11, 4.23)
Santana (10-7, 3.65) @ Matusz (3-11, 5.46)
Haren (0-2, 2.63) @ Arrieta (3-3, 5.47)

Things to Watch

Jeremy Guthrie has put together a nice little hot streak since the Break. He is the only Oriole starter who has done so. Torii Hunter might have something to say about that though. Hunter is .417/.429/.500 for his career against Guts. Ouch.
Alfredo Simon and David Hernandez have been better than expected in relief roles but they both blew saves against the Royals. Is this the beginning of the annual bullpen collapse?
There is one line of thought that says the Orioles are pressing too much and need to relax. Another says the O's are too laid back about losses and poor performances. Showalter will certainly add pressure, even if he doesn't intend to. The players all know they are being judged for next year. Will it spark the team, or will the additional stress push the young players over the edge?

Minor League Note

Rick VandenHurk, who came over for Will Ohman, threw seven strong innings for Norfolk. VandenHurk's numbers aren't eye-popping, but maybe the Orioles got a steal here; another Jeremy Guthrie who never got a good chance with a different organization. Baltimore's pitching being what it is, VandenHurk will certainly have every opportunity to confuse major league hitters and my spell check.

A Slow Trade Season

2010-08-01T22:27:00.002-06:00

The trading deadline came and went without much activity from the Orioles. They got a fair return for Miguel Tejada and Will Ohman, but there was no Sherrill-for-Bell trade that made fans think differently about the future. Andy MacPhail deserves the blame for that, but not because of anything that happened in the last week.

The fundamental problem that Andy MacPhail faced this week was that his best trade chips...Jeremy Guthrie, Ty Wigginton, and Luke Scott...were more valuable to him than to anyone else. On a contending team, those players are a back of the rotation starter and a couple of good bench bats. On the Orioles? Guthrie is the only starter who can be relied upon to go more than five innings. Wigginton and Scott are the only Orioles with over 15 home runs; the only Orioles with slugging averages over .450. There is nobody in the organization who can replace that production. Andy MacPhail can't give them away for a couple of second-tier prospects, but that is all a contender will give up for what they see as a bench player.

The problem this trading season wasn't that the Orioles did anything wrong lately. They did what they had to do on deadline day. The problem was caused in December when the O's decided to go after Garrett Atkins, Kevin Millwood, and Michael Gonzalez. Those three should have been the top trade chips this summer. At the very least, their production should have made Ty Wigginton or Jeremy Guthrie expendable. They have been expensive busts though, so the Orioles spent July trying to convince contenders to give up a blue-chip prospect for Ty Wigginton.

This is a lost season though. Shouldn't the Orioles trade whatever veterans they have? Sure, if it improves the team over the long haul, but the Baltimore Orioles are not a farm club. They aren't obligated to give up their best players when contenders desire some bench strength. There isn't anything wrong with hanging onto the veterans and providing some support for the younger players. The real problem is that the Orioles don't have more quality veterans to provide that support.

If you want to be mad at Andy MacPhail, go for it. Be mad at him for December though, not for July.

Showalter's Coaches

2010-07-31T20:53:00.000-06:00

Buck Showalter says the current Oriole coaches will keep their jobs for the rest of the season, but what then?

Below is a list of Showalter's key coaches in his three previous stops. His bench coaches, hitting coaches, and pitching coaches are listed. Since the responsibilities of other coaches vary from team to team, it didn't seem productive to list them.

NY YANKEES ’92 to ‘95

Bench Coaches

Russ Meyer ‘92

Ed Napoleon ‘93

Clete Boyer ‘94

Glenn Sherlock ‘95

Pitching Coaches

Mark Connor ‘92

Tony Cloninger ‘93

Bill Connors ’94 to ‘95

Hitting Coaches

Frank Howard ‘92

Rick Down ’93 to ‘95

There is lots of turnover here and no telling what might have been driving it. The Yankees were not the most stable franchise in baseball at that time. Buck inherited Connor and Howard from the previous manager but he must have liked Connor's work. Connor spent '93 as the Yankee bullpen coach and his name will come up later on this list.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS ’98 to ‘00

Bench Coach

Carlos Tosca ’98 to ‘00

Pitching Coach

Mark Connor ’98 to ‘00

Hitting Coach

Jim Presley ’98 to ‘00

There was a lot of stability here because Showalter got to hand-pick his staff for the D-Back's first season. Mark Connor shows up again as pitching coach. It's worth pointing out that despite being an expansion team, Arizona found veteran pitchers to build around. Connor's strongest pitchers were thirty-somethings like AndyBenes, Armando Reynoso, Gregg Olson, Randy Johnson, Greg Swindell, and 40 year-old Mike Morgan. Nothing he did in Arizona equates to what the Orioles are trying to do now.

TEXAS RANGERS ’03 to ‘06

Bench Coach

Don Wakamatsu ’03 to ‘06

Pitching Coach

Orel Hershiser ’03 to ‘05

Mark Connor ‘06

Hitting Coach

Rudy Jaramillo ’03 to ‘06

All of these coaches are very well though of today, but it isn't all to Showalter's credit. He inherited Jaramillo and Hershiser. Connor shows up again and it is worth noting that he was the bullpen coach from '03 to '05. He stayed on as pitching coach until the '08 season when he was fired and kicked upstairs. Connor still serves the Rangers as a "consultant," whatever that may entail.

A few things jump out when looking at this list as a whole. First, Showalter has no problem keeping coaches he inherited from other managers. In both New York and Texas, other people's hires got long auditions.

Next, it seems certain that Mark Connor will be offered a job. He and Showalter seem to have a relationship similar to that of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. Connor has never worked with a staff this young, but most Oriole fans will welcome the change anyway.

Lastly, there are some high quality names on there. Setting the Yankee years aside since Showalter may not have been his own boss when it came to selecting coaches, the man has found or developed good coaches. Wakamatsu is a manager now and Jaramillo was the subject of a bidding war a winter or two ago. Hershiser was considered for a couple managerial jobs but settled into the broadcast booth instead. Hopefully Buck Showalter will find high quality people to fill out the Orioles coaching staff when the time comes.

WE HAVE A MANAGER! But No 3rd Baseman

2010-07-29T22:41:00.003-06:00

The Orioles hired Buck Showalter. He'll start Monday. One day I would like to hear exactly why it took so long, but I don't think I'll ever get that explanation. Despite the delay, Showalter is a great choice for the Birds. I heard a story that he once threw a fit because the wrong kind of toilet paper was in the john. The Orioles have so many problems, they need some meticulous SOB who is going to attack every one.

Since he was feeling froggy, Andy MacPhail also jumped on a deal for two-time ex-Oriole Miguel Tejada. Miggi is headed to the Padres for a AA pitcher named Wynn Pelzer. Wouldn't it be an odd coincidence if Miggi knocked former Oriole Oscar Salazar off the Padre active roster?

Trading Tejada is a case of addition by subtraction. The Orioles will put a better lineup out there without him. In 2010, Tejada has an OPS of .670. Without him, the Orioles will play Luke Scott (.921 OPS) at first base, Ty Wigginton (.772) at third, and Corey Patterson (.729) at DH. Felix Pie (.722) will be the everyday starter in left field. All of Tejada's plate appearances will go to people with a higher OPS than his. This seems like a no-lose situation. The deal would look even better if Josh Bell used the opportunity to come to Baltimore for good.

Wynn Pelzer is new to me. His minor league numbers are good but not great. The 5.3 walks per 9 innings at AA are particularly troubling. The Padres were using him as a starter but many scouting reports project a future in the pen because of his good fastball and slider. Apparently his secondary pitches aren't developing very quickly. There is a nice summary of some scouting reports with a couple videos here.

Since the O's don't have much depth at the corners, it appears Wiggy will be in the orange and black through the season.

On Deck--@ The Kansas City Royals

2010-07-29T18:25:00.000-06:00

If this were 1982 we would have a series to watch. We would also have a lot more hair spray and maybe a Pat Benatar cassette. It isn't 1982 though, it's 2010 and the Royals and Orioles are American League patsies playing for whatever scraps of pride they can find in beating each other. Where have you gone, Eddie Murray?

The Orioles were putrid against the Jays. This is a huge statement, but the Jays series might have been the worst of the year for the O's. With the exception of Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles didn't pitch, hit, or play defense against Toronto. The Royals looked just as bad getting swept against the Twins though. The Twins outscored KC 36-7 in that series.

When I lived in Las Vegas I thought that two well matched third-tier fighters made just as exciting a fight as two champions. I don't think that applies in baseball, but here we go anyway. Matchups are:

Matusz (3-11, 5.22) @ Davies (5-6, 5.52)
Arrieta (3-3, 5.40) @ O'Sullivan (0-1, 9.00)
Bergesen (3-9, 6.95) @ Greinke (6-10, 4.01)
Millwood (2-10, 5.96) @ Chen (5-5, 4.83)

Things to Watch

The trade deadline is a mere two days away. The Royals are selling like state fair midway barkers (Podsednik, Callaspo). The Orioles seem to have a deal in place for Miguel Tejada, pending league approval. Is more coming?
The young starters used to be inconsistent. Since the All-Star break, they have been flat awful, yet the O's will keep running them out there. We have a suicide pact with them. In fact, the Orioles have the second-worst team ERA in the majors since the break at 6.33. Luckily for them, the Royals are the worst at 8.06. If either team could hit, this would be a slugfest.
Bruce Chen. Another lefty journeyman to baffle Oriole hitters?

The Dog Days of Blogging

2010-07-27T07:06:00.002-06:00

Orioles bloggers who can come up with something to write about in times like this are more creative than I.

The O's haven't hired a manager or made any moves that indicate it will happen soon.

The O's haven't made any trades and rumors on the topic have died off. Jeremy Guthrie would bring the best return but if he is traded, the Orioles might need to expand the bullpen to ten arms.

Craig Tatum went to the minors despite playing better than expected. Some people got upset but Tatum is the backup catcher. Its a tempest in a teacup. Backup catchers get sent down sometimes.

I spent the weekend in the mountains which spared me from having to watch the last few games. Sometimes I read that fans owe it to the team to watch games. Brian Roberts said something about that a couple years ago. I believe that when the team is this bad, fans need an occasional break.

The Earl Retires

2010-07-23T23:57:00.002-06:00

Juan Samuel's discus-style hat toss after his ejection the other night led to a lot of comparisons to Earl Weaver. Weaver might be best remembered for his temper, but he was legitimately loved in Baltimore.

Here is a YouTube video of Earl's 1982 retirement. Look quickly at the start and you will catch a glimpse of Wild Bill Hagy. At the end you hear and see O-R-I-O-L-E-S. It took 16 years of building a tradition to create that moment. What would it take to get back there from here?

On Deck--The Minnesota Twins

2010-07-21T22:44:00.003-06:00

In a vacuum, taking one of three from Tampa isn't a bad thing. Its better than you might expect given the records of the O's and Rays. The way it happened was tough though. The Orioles' young starters got slapped around badly. Only Jake Arrieta saw the sixth inning, and the way that inning went it might have been better if he hadn't. Both Bergesen and Tillman got hit hard, leading to Tillman's demotion to the minors.

Speaking of, the O's made a bedazzling set of moves over the last few days, activating Luke Scott, Kevin Millwood, Michael Gonzalez, and promoting Troy Patton. They demoted Tillman, Josh Bell, Frank Mata, and...Patton. Poor Troy Patton spent one game in an Oriole uni before getting his walking papers. He must have done a bad job spitting sunflower seeds in the pen. Probably didn't show good hustle on his way to and from the crapper. Juan Samuel should have played the young man just to justify the cost of the plane ticket.

Up next are the Minnesota Twins who the O's split with in May. It was one of only two series in May the Orioles didn't lose. Matchups are:

Pavano (11-6, 3.48) @ Millwood (2-8, 5.77)
Duensing (3-1, 1.67) @ Guthrie (3-10, 4.58)
Baker (7-9, 5.15) @ Matusz (3-10, 5.21)
Slowey (8-5, 4.94) @ Arrieta (3-2, 4.87)

Things to Watch

The roster moves are still going to be the most interesting happenings. Dan Connolly reports that Brian Roberts brought his bats to the Yard, prompting speculation that Brian Bob's return is near. Scott Moore is the likely casualty of that move. Matt Wieters is eligible to come off the DL on July 25. If there hasn't been a trade by then to clear space, there will be a tough decision to be made.
In related news, Ty Wigginton found his power stroke against the tough Rays pitchers. He hit two home runs in the last two games, hopefully increasing his trade value. Or maybe he's just increasing the return Andy MacPhail will demand, therefore making a trade less likely. Either way I'm glad for Wiggy. His efforts in a losing cause this year should translate into more dollars on his contract next year.
Kevin Millwood's injury has kept him out of trade rumors lately but all it would take is a couple good starts and he would be back on the block. Hopefully he can pitch like he did in April.

Quick Rant

How long does it take to sign a manager? Juan Samuel has been managing for 40 games, plus the All-Star break! What is Andy MacPhail doing? Is he going to learn something about Buck Showalter or Eric Wedge that he doesn't already know? Are the O's interviewing other candidates on the sly? He isn't really giving Samuel a longer tryout, is he? Does it take that long to negotiate a contract?

MacPhail recently said something about how there wasn't any hurry because the barn wasn't on fire. The Orioles have the worst record in baseball and a whole boatload of regressing prospects. Hey, I smell smoke!

On Deck--The Tampa Bay Rays

2010-07-19T06:22:00.002-06:00

The Orioles played horribly and got swept by the Jays. They hit terribly and they fielded terribly. The pitching wasn't that bad for two games, but the ten runs they allowed on Sunday skews the average considerably. More and more, Nick Markakis stands out as the only professional caliber hitter on the team. He would lead off an inning with a double and it was just a matter of how the team would strand him. Scott Moore tried to put a stop to that by spiking Nick while chasing a pop up, but he only tore Nick's shoe. Scary moment though.

Fresh off abuse by one AL East team, the O's have to face another one. The Rays lead the league in ERA (3.62), so expect the RISP statistics to improve a great deal. Largely because the O's won't get many RISP. At least the team is missing Price's turn in the rotation.

Matchups are:

Davis (6-9, 4.69) @ Tillman (1-3, 5.64)
Garza (10-5, 4.05) @ Arrieta (3-2, 4.38)
Shields (7-9, 4.86) @ Bergesen (3-7, 6.37)

Things to Watch

Honestly, I think this mismatch will be totally unwatchable from an Oriole perspective, but here I go:

Both Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are coming off good starts against the Rangers. Maybe they can keep it going.
The Rays lead the AL in steals. Surprisingly, Evan Longoria has 13 of them. He doesn't look fast in that commercial where the guy steals his hat. Craig Tatum, reputed to be a catch-and-throw catcher, will have his work cut out for him.
Matt Garza OWNS the Orioles...he's 8-1, 2.48 against the team. To paraphrase the shower scene from Bull Durham, how'd we ever win one? Its a miracle. Matt Garza had a clause written into his contract that he must be allowed three starts per year against the O's.

If the Orioles' annual late-season collapse started now, would anybody notice the difference?

The Big Four

2010-07-18T22:43:00.003-06:00

Its seems like I've been writing about the Big 3 forever. MatuszTillmanArrieta...TillmanArrietaMatusz...ArrietaMatuszTillman. The order changed by the month, sometimes by the start, but the Big 3 have been out there, tantalizing Oriole fans. They are the three starting pitchers slated to lead the Oriole pitching staff out of the wilderness to the promised land.

As prospects they were deified. Matusz was so good the O's didn't let him throw his best pitches in the low minors, fearing he would dominate to such an extent that he wouldn't learn anything. Tillman was so strong that he threw both a no-hitter and a one-hitter at AAA. Arrieta had such a powerful physique that Aubrey Huff used to joke about how bad the young pitcher made him look. They were the Big 3.

They are still there and they have all the potential they did before they were exposed to the hitters of the AL East. But like a money-hungry college football conference, they have expanded. With the rise of Zach Britton on prospect lists, the Big 3 is now the Big 4.

Britton didn't come into the organization with the hype that accompanied his three fellow prospects. He didn't have Jake Arrieta's power. He lacked Brian Matusz' California-cool polish. He didn't have a breaking pitch like Chris Tillman's hook. He kept getting people out with a heavy sinker though and now he has the attention of most hard-core Oriole fans.

The '06 third-round draft pick had a solid '09 and started climbing prospect lists, showing up at #25 on Keith Law's list. Then the '10 season started and Britton showed he was even better than Law and others suspected. He dominated AA and forced a mid-season promotion to AAA Norfolk. In three starts at Norfolk he made good hitters look foolish. He has a 1.50 ERA with 3 walks and 11 Ks. His WHIP is an even 1.000. He's making a case for a quick promotion to Baltimore at the tender age of 22.

Roch Kubatko noticed. So did The Sun. Brittany Ghiroli is practically giddy about his potential over at the Official Site.

The word is out. The Big 3 is dead. Long live the Big 4!

On Deck--The Toronto Blue Jays

2010-07-16T06:27:00.002-06:00

Lots of teams opt to jigger with their rotations after the break to give their best pitchers an extra turn or protect a weak pitcher. The O's decided to keep their pitchers in order so everybody will pitch on eight days rest. Why not? All the O's pitchers are so inconsistent there isn't any way to choose one over another. We never know who might have a good night on any given turn.

The Jays have been slipping and are now under .500 despite leading the AL in home runs. They just acquired a shiny new toy in Yunel Escobar from the Braves. Yuni can hit but was having an off year and rumor has it he fell out of favor with Bobby Cox, earning him a plane ticket out of town. Maybe he'll be the spark the Jays are looking for.

I have to ask though, if the Braves were interested in moving an affordable 27 year old shortstop with a high ceiling, how did the Orioles miss out? All the Jays gave up was a veteran shortstop and a couple B prospects. The O's could have matched that package easily and had their bridge to Manny Machado or Mychal Givens. Saying the Orioles aren't opportunistic is an understatement.

Anyway, here are the pitching matchups:

Romero (6-6, 3.71) @ Beregesen (3-6, 6.40)
Morrow (5-6, 4.86) @ Guthrie (3-10, 4.77)
Marcum (7-4, 3.44) @ Matusz, (3-9, 4.77)

Things to Watch

The O's swung hot bats against the Rangers. Nick Markakis is .340/.373/.617 in July. Are the hitters warming up, or did the Rangers pitchers have a bad series?
The pitching? I don't know. One will have a brilliant outing and you'll think he turned the corner, another will stink and fans will be ready to send him to the minors. The young guys have proven they can play at AAA though. They might as well learn their lessons in the bigs during a lost year.
Matt Wieters is on the DL giving Craig Tatum his chance in the spotlight. Tatum has been a solid backup, solving a problem the O's have had for most of a decade. While nobody wanted it to come at Wieters' expense, Tatum should get a chance to show what he can do given a larger role. Good luck, Craig.

All About Eric Wedge

2010-07-13T05:45:00.002-06:00

Buck Showalter has emerged as the front runner for the O's managerial vacancy, but the contract isn't signed and anything could happen. Eric Wedge has interviewed twice, including a meeting with majority owner Peter Angelos, and has to be viewed as a serious candidate.

Steve Buffum at The B-List Indians Blog was kind enough to answer questions about Wedge.

The Orioles are a team rebuilding with young players. Does Wedge have a good track record at developing prospects?

At the risk of waffling, the answer is "Yes and no." When
Wedge was originally hired, remember, the Indians had just
made the Bartolo Colon and Roberto Alomar trades which
signalled a "retool" period, where they were trying to rebuild
from the aged Thome/Nagy/Fryman heyday without doing a
total rebuild. This didn't entirely work, because Mark Shapiro
was very good at identifying minor leaguer like Grady Sizemore
and Cliff Lee and very bad at identifying second-tier major leaguers
like Matt Lawton and David Dellucci.

Wedge had no problem giving time to great young players like
Sizemore and Lee, but was never able to reach Jhonny Peralta
and Brandon Phillips. If there is a cautionary tale, it is Phillips,
whose perceived hotdog prima donna approach led him to be
flat-out DUMPED (Jeff Stevens), where he subsequently became
an All-Star in Cincinnati. I can't say that Wedge will not play
youngsters, because Peralta seemed to get infinite rope, and
Shin-Soo Choo blossomed under Wedge's watch (along with
a number of others like Victor Martinez, Asdrubal Cabrera and
Rafael Perez).

Ultimately, with Wedge, "effort" begets "rope." A player who
goes all-out will continue to get playing time independent of
results. This can lead to a breakout, like Sizemore or Choo,
or to some very ill-advised things, like Jason Michaels or
Closer Joe Borowski.

Is Wedge a players’ manager or an angry martinet? Can you give an example?

If there is one word that describes Wedge, albeit a hyphenated
one, it would be "even-keeled." Above all else, Wedge sells his
team on the philosophy that he is not going to get too high during
success, nor too low during struggle. Again, this has plusses
and minuses: players don't get discouraged and rarely get called
out in the press, so they appreciate that. On the other hand,
Cleveland seemed to lead the league in being hit by pitches,
including Travis Hafner TWICE getting bombed out of seasons
(Mark Buehrle hit him in the head, C.J. Wilson broke his hand),
and the fans found it hard to actively EMBRACE Wedge.

This is not entirely different from Mike Hargrove, if you need a
reference point we share.

The one example in which Wedge called out a player was Peralta,
but that was WELL after it was probably called for, and was pretty
mild to boot.

The Orioles’ two previous managers, Dave Trembley and Sam Perlozzo, were both criticized by fans for questionable bullpen choices. How did Cleveland fans feel about Wedge’s handling of relief pitchers?

In Wedge's defense, when given good bullpen pitchers, he ran
a good bullpen, and when given a collection of schmucks, he
ran a collection of schmucks. The performance of the Indians
from 2005 to 2009 was almost a one-to-one correlation between
the bullpen (VERY good in 2005 & 2007, bad other years) and
the team record.

In looking at those two successful years, Wedge ran excellent
setup men into the ground. In 2005, it was Bobby Howry (a
pleasant surprise, and it got him a big offer from the Cubs), and
in 2007, it was the Wonder Duo of "Raffy Right" (Betancourt) and
"Raffy Left" (Perez). Go look up their stats from 2007: they were
PHENOMENAL.

But he kind of lucked into the leverage aspect of their success:
in fact, Wedge runs a "top-down" bullpen with a higher-than-normal
degree of orthodoxy. Identify the closer, and what he does is close.
Identify the right and left-handed setup men, and what they do is
pitch the 7th and 8th. Identify the long guy and have him go
multiple innings: match others by handedness. Never do anything
but a three-out save. Never bring the closer in in a tie ninth or
to do anything but start an inning (he can pitch in extra innings,
but he has to start the inning). Exception: you can bring in the
closer if he has had several days off and "needs work."

With good pitchers, this kind of management works great. Without
them (or with good pitchers having off seasons), you end up going
with a lot of "hot hand" and "matchup" stuff and it looks terrible.
On the other hand, some of that is because it is terrible. How
much can a manager really change "terrible?"

ed. note: This all sounds familiar. Except for the part about good bullpens. Dave Trembley never had one of those.

It appears Wedge was successful for several years until the Indians traded some talent away. Was he a victim of his front office? Did he deserve to be let go?

Oh, he totally deserved to be let go. His time had come and had
gone. The team stopped responding to his Zen non-message and
he clearly did not enjoy managing them any more.

Some of this was the front office, but some of this was also his
destruction of the Raffies, his insistence on platooning Michaels
and Dellucci (and then continuing to play Dellucci WAY after it
was counterproductive), screwing up Phillips, and getting less
out of the rotation/infield fit than he should have.

Better manager: Eric Wedge or former O’s and Indians manager Mike Hargrove?

Damned good question. Here's the thing: Hargrove was perfect
for his time, and Wedge was right for his. Hargrove took over a
team which had not won in my lifetime, took the collection of
young talent coming up together, and guided them into territory
none of them (or us) had ever seen. Hargrove was a GUIDER,
in that he got the team on the same page at the same time and
let them excel. Without excellent players, Hargrove was really
pretty ordinary.

ed. note: That last sentence...Yep, saw that.

Wedge took over a group of players who had seen recent success,
or knew of it from the few holdovers, and led them back into charted
territory. But he was far from INNOVATIVE or INSPIRATIONAL.
He was the calm, guiding hand that would be an excellent parent
of a teenager: more patient and even-tempered than you, but on
the other hand, not very likely to get the kid a scholarship or a
work-study at Comedy Central. He also bunted too frequently,
but then, I dislike bunting.

Bottom line: Having seen Wedge’s work up close, do you think the Orioles should hire him? Would they be better served chasing a bigger name like Buck Showalter, or promoting an internal candidate like Juan Samuel or Rick Dempsey?

I can't speak to the internal candidates, although my family is
mostly from the Maryland side of DC (Bladensburg et al) and so
I followed the Orioles for a long time. I remember Dempsey hitting
Hargrove in the ear with a throw back to the pitcher back when
Mike was "The Human Rain Delay," so I'll always have a soft spot
for him. I think that Dempsey would make a good manager, but
that was a long time ago and I don't know how he's "matured."

Showalter, IMO, would be perfect, but I don't know if he could work
with Angelos. Wedge could, he can work with anyone. He's smart
and hard-working, just very bland in public speaking opportunities.
(Apparently he is more colorful in private, which IMO is appropriate.)
Wedge would be good if you have significant talent coming up within
the next two years.

If anything, though, Wedge cannot be properly evaluated without
discussing Shapiro as well. The two formed a literal "team," in which
every aspect of the team's construction and development was discussed
to consensus. It was a real (and somewhat rare) GM-MGR *partnership*,
for better or for worse: Shapiro and Wedge were on the same page about
virtually everything, and while it worked, Wedge's job was the safest in
the majors (outside of Atlanta) because of it. I assume your GM crew
will demand a bit more separation, and because of the souring of his
last relationship, Wedge would probably prefer that.

In summation: Wedge is capable of being a big league manager. The
players will respect him (and yes, he played in the majors, but very
little), he will treat guys evenly and respectfully, but the O's might need
someone Truly Innovative (like the guy in Tampa, oddly enough) to get
over the fact that they play in the A.L. East with David, Goliath, and
Goliath, while the Orioles are Soupy Sales.

By the way, your pitching is very, very bad, and I know this, because
Cleveland's pitching is very, very bad, so I know it when I see it ... and
yours is actually *worse*. This is gratifying and horrifying at the same
time, sort of like Britney Spears.

Thanks Steve. That's terrific insight. And I approve of anyone who can reference The Bible, Soupy Sales, and Britney Spears in the span of three sentences.

Going into the Break

2010-07-12T06:44:00.003-06:00

The best thing about this year's All-Star break is getting to savor a four-game winning streak for eight days. There will be plenty of rumor and action though.

The managerial rumor mill will continue to grind. Fox Sports reports that the O's are "close to terms with Buck Showalter." On the other hand, The Baltimore Sun wants you to know there is no offer on the table for Bucky S.

These are the Orioles and crazy things happen around them. Showalter is the front-runner for now but negotiations could break down, leading to the Eric Wedge Era. Peter Angelos could get a wild hair and hire Rick Dempsey or some wild card candidate. Don't pre-order that Showalter jersey yet, and enjoy the craziness of the process.

The trade rumors are going to fly also. Its impossible to log onto mlbtraderumors without finding one or two O's rumors on the front page. Orioles veterans are available and apparently in demand. Big trades usually don't go down until after the break, but rumors will continue to fly. Especially if Ty Wigginton does something notable at the game.

The last thing to watch will be injury updates. Both Luke Scott and Michael Gonzalez could be back from the DL right after the break, depending on the speed of their rehab. Brian Roberts is taking ground balls and might not be all that far behind them. It would cause a major roster crunch.

We might even get rid of Frank Mata.

Young Pitching

2010-07-11T11:24:00.003-06:00

There are lots of experts in baseball. You have scouts, sabermetric analysts, Vegas bookies and professional writers on down the chain to bloggers and barroom blowhards. The one thing that unifies them is that young pitching fools them all, over and over. The Orioles are chock full of young pitching that is inconsistent, frustrating, and tantalizing. I can't name an expert that understands them. The only constant to them is their unpredictability.

Last night, Chris Tillman gave us all a good look at his talent. Vegas oddsmakers had the Orioles as a 3-1 underdog against the Rangers. After all, it was Cliff Lee's coming out party and Tillman hasn't exactly lit up the majors. On vegasinsider.com you had to bet four dollars on Lee and the Rangers to win one dollar back. Young pitching is tough to predict though.

Tillman threw 7 1/3 innings of two hit ball. The only run he allowed was due to an ugly error by Adam Jones, who allowed a hard single to skip off his glove and roll to the fence. It was ruled a single and a two-base error, so the run that eventually scored didn't go against Tillman. He out-pitched potential Cy Young winner Lee and took the win home.

Other Oriole youth has had the same unpredictable success. Jake Arrieta can look like an ace one night and like an over matched minor leaguer the next. I'm hoping to see the ace tonight. Even Brian Matusz, who has been with the O's for nearly a full year, has ups and downs. Here is a monthly breakdown of his 2010:

Apr--4.40 ERA, 10BB, 29K
May--7.50 ERA, 10BB, 16K
June--3.69 ERA, 11BB, 25K

He's tough to predict month by month, let alone start by start. The lesson to be learned, or relearned, is that young pitchers don't develop in a steady progression. They learn in lurching steps with the occasional backward slide. If I ever live in Vegas again, I think my sports book tactic would be to always bet on the underdog when it comes to young pitching. Even the talented ones are tough to predict.

If you are an O's fan, the only thing to do is be patient. The young pitchers will give you incredible efforts like Tillman's last night. Then they will have days where they couldn't find the strike zone with a GPS. That's just young pitching. There is nothing to do but wait it out. The team has a suicide pact with this group of youngsters.

On Deck @ the Texas Rangers

2010-07-08T05:44:00.002-06:00

In the spirit of focusing on the positive, Jake Arrieta looked very good against the Tigers. When he first went to AAA, he was inconsistent for a while, then he made adjustments and dominated. He'll likely be up and down as he adjusts to the majors, but after a game like that, its easy so imagine a strong future for him. He allowed one run in six and a third. If the O's had provided him with either an offense (3-17 RISP) or a bullpen, this would have been a strong win for Jake. As it was, Johnny Damon won it for Detroit with a dramatic HR in the 11th off David Hernandez.

The O's go from the AL Central leaders to the AL West leaders. The Texas Rangers have the biggest lead of any first-place team, 5.5 over the Angels. They are third in the AL in runs scored and run differential. You could pick nits about their pitching, but so far its been good enough. After a four game series with the O's, the Rangers could easily be seven or eight games ahead in their division during the All-Star break.

Matchups are:

Guthrie (3-10, 4.64) @ Hunter (5-0, 1.98)
Matusz (3-9, 4.56) @ Feldman (5-8, 5.51)
TBA @ Harrison (1-1, 4.47)
Arrieta (2-2, 4.96) @ Wilson (7-4, 3.24)

Things to Watch

Both Matusz and Arrieta are coming off very strong starts. Tune in to watch the future, even if they will both lose when the offense and/or bullpen fails miserably.
The TBA is due to Kevin Millwood's forearm injury. The replacement has to be Chris Tillman. He just threw a one-hitter at Norfolk and has nothing to prove or learn down there. He needs to come up and learn his lessons against the big boys. He'll struggle sometimes, but his learning curve won't hurt the Orioles' playoff chances one bit.
Nick Markakis has taken some criticism for his lack of power this year, but he poked a couple balls over the fence recently. It would be great to see a power surge from him.
Felix Pie came back from injury and had his moments against the Tigers. Pie isn't a player who can carry the offense by himself, but he will be an upgrade over what was out there before.
Poor Jake Fox went three for five with an HR against the Tigers, then got benched for the next two games. Why did the O's go to the trouble of trading for Fox if they were just going to give him Garrett Atkins' spot at the end of the bench? Wigginton at second, Fox at first. Its that simple. Julio Lugo makes good sense as a bench player.

Trivia

Just a matter of opinion, but when I lived in Ft. Worth, I thought the Ballpark at Arlington was one of the underrated stadiums in baseball. The seats are comfortable, the views are great, parking is easy, and they have a Little League field right outside the main stadium for the kids. If you ever have a chance to catch a game there, its worth the money.
Ex-Oriole Melvin Mora has been an effective bench player for the Rockies. He is .252/.336/.333 and had a clutch hit last night in a come-from-behind win against the Cardinals. Go Melvin!

On Deck @ the Detroit Tigers

2010-07-04T21:13:00.002-06:00

Baseball is a hard game to predict. The Baltimore Orioles played one of the worst games of the year Saturday night. They played bad defense, didn't pitch well, and didn't hit well. Sunday afternoon they played one of their prettiest games. Brian Matusz threw seven innings of shutout ball, the O's capitalized on Boston miscues and the bullpen was decent. It was a great team performance. Juan Samuel's ejection late Saturday must have energized the team. Maybe Juan can get himself ejected more often.

The Orioles are off to Detroit now, without Tiger-killer Luke Scott who is on the DL with an injured hamstring. The Tigers are tied for first in their division despite getting drubbed by Cliff Lee and the Mariners Sunday. Luckily for the Tigers, the O's don't have a Cliff Lee to throw out there. Matchups are:

Millwood (2-8, 5.40) @ Oliver (0-2, 3.00)
Arrieta (2-2, 5.81) @ Galarraga (3-2, 4.50, one great game)
Bergesen (3-5, 6.44) @ Scherzer (5-6, 4.88)

Things to Watch

Despite the fact that he plays for the competition, it will be lots of fun to see Galarraga pitch. His One Shining Moment was so bright that it will define him for years to come. His almost-perfect game and classy handling of the situation were highlights of the MLB season.
Felix Pie is expected back Tuesday but what does that mean? Does he move into the DH slot for the time being? Does he move Corey Patterson to the bench? Will he pick up where he left off with the bat?
Josh Bell is 2 for 11 with six strikeouts. Can the prospect turn it around or is he going to earn a ticket back to Norfolk?

Trivia

Ty Wigginton got the O's lone All-Star bid. Most who answered the last poll question leaned toward Nick Markakis but Wiggy's ability to play different positions likely put him over the top. Tough luck for Nick, but maybe the accolades for Wiggy will raise his trade value.
Nolan Reimold is hitting .207/.290/.313 in the minors. He looked like he had the whole package last year. He was patient and powerful. Hopefully this is all related to his Achilles problems and he will be himself again next year, but its tough to see him struggle like this.

Have a happy holiday weekend.

Mata Gotta Go

2010-07-03T22:05:00.003-06:00

"Relief" pitcher Frank Mata has proved he doesn't belong in the big leagues and he proved it even more against the Red Sox tonight.

Frankie is the proud owner of a 9.22 ERA. Opponents are hitting .339 against him. Its only in 13.2 innings, but sometimes you just know, regardless of sample size. He walks a batter every other inning and allows well over a hit per inning; often a big hit. In fact, he has allowed two home runs in his brief tenure.

Mata was called up because he was pitching pretty well for AAA Norfolk. It seemed like the right move at the time. He had one shining moment against the Yankees when he pitched in three straight games totaling two innings and he didn't allow a run. Since then he has been a disaster.

First he got shelled in San Francisco.

Then in San Diego.

Then against Oakland.

Now in Boston, and that one was the icing on the cake. It wasn't just that he pitched badly, although he did. He also played terrible defense. He committed one throwing error, and a couple plays later, failed to cover first base. The error went to Wigginton, who threw to nobody, but it could have gone either way.

When Felix Pie comes back, hopefully Monday, it will be time to send Mata back to Norfolk. He put forth a worthwhile effort, but the man is throwing gasoline on fires. That move would leave a seven man bullpen and a four man bench, exactly what the team carried out of spring training.

On Deck @ the Boston Red Sox

2010-07-02T15:08:00.003-06:00

It ain't much, but we have all just witnessed the best week of Oriole baseball in the 2010 season. The team swept the free-falling Nats then played good ball against the A's, although they only won one game of three. With the exception of Frank Mata, the bullpen has looked good, and a couple of the hitters are coming around. The 2011 number one draft pick is starting to look a lot less certain. Things could be a lot worse.

And then we had to go to Fenway. This isn't the same Red Sox team that rolled over for the O's earlier in the season. The Sox clawed their way back into the pennant race after being given up for dead and they are now only one game out of first. They have won more games at home than the Orioles have in total. They lead the AL in runs scored (435). In fact, they have outscored the O's by 161 runs on the season. Bring 'em on!!! And hide Frank Mata.

Bergesen (3-4, 6.83) @ Wakefield (2-6, 5.21)
Guthrie (3-9, 4.30) @ Lester (9-3, 2.86)
Matusz (2-9, 4.90) @ Lackey (9-3, 4.46)

Things to Watch

The O's have a hot young prospect up in Josh Bell. He was a surprise call-up after Luke Scott's injury. While he wasn't hitting badly in AAA (.266/.311/.455), he wasn't exactly pounding on the promotion door either. The O's decided to give him a look instead of rushing Felix Pie's rehab. He's in the starting lineup as DH tonight against knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield.
Can Jake Fox please get some reps? Since coming to the O's on June 22, he has a grand total of eight plate appearances. Scott's injury won't free up any ABs since Josh Bell has to get reps. That was a pointless move is Fox doesn't get a real chance to show what he can do. Manager Juan Samuel needs to stop starting Julio Lugo and give every one of his chances to Fox and Scott Moore. Lugo has no chance at being part of the O's future. Fox and Moore have some shot.
That O's defense has been awful lately. Roch spent 500 words or so ripping their defensive performance with good cause. According to Fangraphs, only Cesar Izturis has a positive UZR among O's regulars. BTW, if anyone can tell me why UZR has hated Nick Markakis the last two years, I'm all ears...it doesn't match my observation. But even if you call Nick a plus defender, its still sad out there, verging on Bad News Bears territory. Jim Palmer called the outfield play "atrocious" last night. Maybe the team will do better tonight.

Trivia

If you love trade rumors, and what Oriole fan doesn't, you'll love July. Every Oriole veteran is on the block, despite Andy MacPhail's coy assertion that "We wouldn't [make trades] just for the sake of moving payroll." I keep hearing that Ty Wigginton could be headed to Philly.
Congratulations are due to Chris Tillman and Jeff Salazar who were selected to the AAA All-Star team.
Its hardly trivial, but Dempsey's Army finds that the O's are not linked to any of the top international prospects. Isn't this organization supposed to be focused on gathering young talent?

Luke Scott to the DL?

2010-07-01T07:29:00.003-06:00

Luke thinks so. He rounded first on a home run ball that didn't look like an HR off the bat. He was running hard, threw on the brakes when the ball cleared the fence, and grabbed at his left hamstring. The ugliest home run "trot" in baseball history followed. Jake Fox took over at DH.

The O's already had a short bench after releasing 1B Garrett Atkins to make room for pitcher Koji Uehara. Now they are looking at a two man bench consisting of Craig Tatum and Julio Lugo. They have to make a move quickly.

There is some speculation that Baltimore will cut Felix Pie's rehab stint short. The O's hoped to give him a few more days in the minors to fully test his injured back muscle, but are likely to bring him right up. As Jeff Zrebiec points out, he can always DH for a few days if the trainers aren't 100% confident in his throwing ability.

In other news, former Oriole closer Chris Ray was traded for the second time this year. He is going from Texas to San Francisco for some Molina or other. Ray is probably shaking his head, wondering what he is doing wrong but it will be a good move for him. The Giants know a little something about scouting and developing young, hard-throwing pitchers. Good luck, Chris.

All-Star Voting

2010-06-30T20:29:00.002-06:00

There is one day left in the All-Star voting. At this point, its obvious that the only way an Oriole is going is through the mandatory one-player-per-team rule. But there is still a chance to cast a protest vote, so go ahead. Who makes you want to punch a ballot?

Nick Markakis .307/.402/.431 Sure, the lack of home run power is troubling, but over the long haul Nick is the best the Orioles have. Beyond the hitting and the patience at the plate, Nick plays rock-solid defense as he showed tonight against the A's. He did it without ever changing expression. At 26 years old he is already grizzled. He yells at the kids when they don't have a plan, then he invites the owner to lunch and tells him how to run the team. He's like my dad if dad could lead the league in doubles.

Nick got my vote just for hanging in there with the O's over the last five years.

Ty Wigginton .262/.346/.464 Ty started the year on a crazy hot streak but has cooled some. Before tonight's blast, Wiggy had gone 30 games without a home run. What Ty really has going for him is positional flexibility. Even with the expanded All-Star roster, there is a benefit to having a guy who can play in many spots. Dustin Pedroia is second in the voting at second base but is injured now. Joe Girardi needs one Oriole and one backup second baseman. There are lots of good outfielders out there. Not too many second basemen with power.

Adam Jones .268/.295/.437 While Wigginton started hot and cooled, AJ started horribly and found his stroke in the last month. In June, Jones' slash line was .320/.352/.600. Jones performed well in last year's game. Streaky? Yep. And the defense hasn't been nearly as good as in '09, but nobody looks at things like that for the All-Star weekend.

Other? Roch Kubatko suggests Jason Berken but admits Berken doesn't have the saves that normally propel relief pitchers to the big game. Maybe you have a reason why Luke Scott or Jeremy Guthrie would be a compelling choice. If so, hold forth, I'd love to hear it.

Poll on the sidebar.

On Deck--The Oakland A's

2010-06-29T19:06:00.002-06:00

OK, technically they aren't On Deck. Since I'm writing this while watching the first game, the A's are definitely out of the on deck circle. Oh well. If you can't be irresponsible about deadlines as a blogger, what is the world coming to?

The O's are a frustrating team to watch. For most of the year, the starting pitching was OK. Not skyrockets, but OK. Their efforts were undone by a bad bullpen and lousy hitting. In the last few days, the bullpen has been great and the offense is getting on track. Unfortunately the starting pitching has disappeared. Its a hard game.

Still, a four game winning streak is nothing to complain about. Nobody else has one of those going. Matchups are:

Mazzaro (2-2, 4.71) @ Matusz (2-8, 4.95)
Sheets (3-7, 5.01) @ Millwood (2-8, 5.22)
Cahill (7-2, 2.88) @ Arrieta (2-1, 6.20)

Things to Watch

Vin Mazzaro is starting in place of Dallas Braden who has a stiff elbow. Mazzaro is pitching like a veteran. Its not fair. If the Orioles had a late scratch, we would have to watch Mark Hendrickson flail around for four innings. The A's? They pull another quality young pitcher out of nowhere to fill the hole.
During the four game winning streak, the Oriole bullpen only allowed one run in sixteen innings. Can they keep that up?
Will the real Jake Arrieta please stand up! Jake was overpowering in his first two starts but was so hittable in the last two that he might as well have been throwing underhand. He only made it 4 1/3 innings against the Nats, allowing five runs.
Kevin Millwood couldn't buy a win when he was pitching well. Now he is the beneficiary of a stupid amount of run support so he has two wins in a pair of shaky starts. The O's have scored 16 runs in those two games.

Trivia

Corey Patterson makes lots of funny faces when he is at bat.
Koji's sideburns are so long they are about to meet at his adam's apple.
So much for that four game winning streak.

Goodbye, Garrett

2010-06-27T21:32:00.002-06:00

Garrett Atkins got DFAed today to make room for Koji Uehara, who is coming off the DL. Atkins ends his Oriole career with a .214/.276/.286 slash line. This blog has been consistently critical of Atkins and the decision to sign him, but there is no point in kicking a man when he is down. Atkins was bad. He got outplayed by Scott Moore, now Jake Fox offers more defensive flexibility so Atkins is gone. That's all.

As for Andy MacPhail, he made a mistake and it seems to be a mistake he is prone to making. Before the 2009 season, it was obvious the O's had a problem with starting pitching. MacPhail signed quantity over quality; Adam Eaton, John Parrish, Brad Hennessey, David Pauley, Rich Hill and others. It didn't work out so well. Before the 2010 season, it was clear that there was a problem at first base. Again, Andy MacPhail tried to solve the problem with quantity. He acquired Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes, and Garrett Atkins.

We know there is a problem at shortstop going into 2011. If Andy MacPhail starts gathering a collection of AAAA and retread shortstops, watch out.

On Deck--The Washington Nationals

2010-06-25T16:05:00.002-06:00

The Nats are in town but the O's managed to miss Stephen Strasburg. Too bad. While it might improve the chances of an Oriole win, it would have been fun to watch him pitch. It also would have been a much-needed boost in attendance. On the other hand, the O's are starting Jake Arrieta tonight and while he doesn't bring the buzz of Strasburg, he's still pretty good. I think.

The last time I saw the Nats play live was almost exactly two years ago in Washington. At the time the Nats were the laughing stock of Major League Baseball and I saw more Sherrill and Ripken jerseys than I did Nats shirts. Things have certainly changed. There are more Strasburg jerseys in DC than there are political opinions. The Orioles look worse than the Nats ever dreamed of. Its a tough time to be an Oriole fan and the Nationals relative success is only making things seem worse.

Matchups are:

Martin (0-3, 3.55) @ Arrieta (2-1, 5.06)
Hernandez (6-4, 2.82) @ Bergesen (3-4, 6.50)
Atilano (6-4, 4.52) @ Guthrie (3-9, 4.28)

Things to Watch

Let's review. Brad Bergesen was a train wreck at the beginning of the season so the O's sent him down to the minors for one start. He came back and was no longer a train wreck...he was merely a car wreck. The Orioles sent him down again for a very short time and now he is back to start on Saturday. He has no chance of succeeding. In '09 he had all winter to prepare, he had a great spring training, then he rocked AAA for a couple of starts. Until he has that kind of momentum again, he needs to stay in Norfolk. For his own sake. The team should have given the spot start to Berken or Hendrickson.
A few days ago one could have argued that Adam Jones' improved numbers were the result of a few lucky infield singles and a couple bad pitches. Not now. AJ looks like the same player who scared the stink off opposing pitchers at the beginning of '09. He is easily the most entertaining Orioles hitter at this moment. He has five straight multi-hit games and four HRs in this last eight games. He's hitting line drives. Even the outs are fun.
All three Oriole starters in this series are suspect. Guthrie and Arrieta got beat up in their last starts. Bergesen...he's my boy, but the Orioles aren't doing him any favors by jerking him up and down from the minors. Luckily the Nats are 12th in the 16 team NL in runs scored. Its the opposite of Archimedes' paradox. An easily resistible force is meeting a lightweight object on well-oiled casters.
For some unfathomable reason Garrett Atkins is starting tonight. Can't the O's just give the PAs to Jake Fox? At least Fox might show some improvement.

That's all I've got. I plan on napping until about the fifth inning, then check in and see how things are going. I recommend that course of action to all Oriole fans, including those at the game.

Nick Markakis--Team Leader

2010-06-24T22:39:00.003-06:00

Last week, Nick Markakis called out his teammates through the media. He publicly declared "it looks like they have no idea what they're doing." He put responsibility for this summer of misery squarely on the shoulders of the players with words like "We’re paid to get on base and figure out how to score and drive in runs." He shrugged off obstacles, noting "you still have to be professional and go out and play every day.”

It wasn't a turning point in the season. Nick can say whatever he wants but it won't fix Brian Roberts' back or turn Garrett Atkins into a good hitter. It was a turning point for public perception of Nick the Stick though.

Today, Nicky met with majority owner Peter Angelos to discuss the direction of the team. According to The Sun they met at a restaurant in Little Italy and Nick had his say. Speaking for myself, I've never been more impressed with Nick Markakis.

Nick is a jock with a high school education. He makes his living with his strength and quickness. He had to know he was far out of his element when he sat across the table from Angelos, who makes his living with his brains and speaking abilities. If the Sun account is accurate though, Nick requested the interview and spoke his mind.

"I wanted to give him my input and tell him the things I thought we lacked and needed, and what we needed to change," said Markakis...

Welcome Jake Fox

2010-06-22T22:49:00.004-06:00

The Orioles acquired a new player from the A's for the low, low price of Ross Wolf. Wolf was a 27 year-old minor league relief pitcher who didn't fit into Baltimore's plans. The thing I remember most about Ross Wolf was that he was the designated "mop-up" guy in spring training. In the ninth inning of any close game, Ross Wolf got the call to warm up. After all, the O's didn't want to risk a valued pitcher getting hurt in extra innings of a spring training game, so Ross got the call. I hope the Orioles have someone who can replace that kind of production. Good luck, Ross.

Jake Fox was a hot prospect in the Cubs organization a few years ago. He didn't have a great glove but he hit well enough to force his way onto the major league roster. Looking at his Baseball Reference page, he was sort of like Ty Wigginton. He played several positions, but none of them very well. He was a good bat off the bench, hitting .252/.305/.457 with 11 HRs in 256 plate appearances with the Cubs.

The Cubs traded him to the A's in a multi-player deal, but Fox never got it going in Oakland. His A's career ended with a .214/.264/.327 line in only 106 plate appearances. Oakland tried to sneak Fox through waivers so he could get regular at-bats in the minors, but no dice. You have to get up pretty early in the morning to sneak a young, cheap former Cubs prospect past Andy MacPhail.

The O's like Fox's defensive flexibility. He plays 1st, 3rd, catcher, and corner outfield. At 27, he isn't exactly young, but he is younger than most Oriole corner infielders. The Orioles also like that he only has 350 big league plate appearances, so he still has room to improve. His ability to catch gives Juan Samuel more ways to rest Matt Wieters and pinch-hit for Craig Tatum.

Fox should benefit from getting regular playing time. He never got the work that he needed in Oakland. This is a good chance for him to rejuvenate his career. The ball seemed to be carrying to left tonight. OPACY might turn out to be a good spot for Fox to find his power stroke.

This move isn't a game-changer, but it is a solid move for the O's. Fox has a chance to grow and improve, which is more than can be said for some of the players from whom he'll take playing time. If nothing else, he'll be better than Garrett Atkins.

Chris Tillman was sent to the minors to make room for Fox.

On Deck--The Florida Marlins

2010-06-22T06:35:00.002-06:00

Over the last week we got to see Aubrey Huff and Jerry Hairston play pretty good baseball. Sadly, neither is with the Orioles anymore. The losses continue and now the Orioles come home to play before a lot of empty seats. The Florida Marlins aren't exactly the kind of natural rival that interleague play promised. Their 33-36 record won't bring fans streaming into the park to see them, although to the Orioles, 33-36 looks like stardust.

Anyway, here are the matchups and they actually look pretty good. If the O's had an offense or a bullpen I could manage some optimism for this series.

Sanchez (6-4, 3.22) @ Guthrie (3-8, 3.97)
Nolasco (5-6, 4.90) @ Matusz (2-7, 4.67)
Robertson (6-6, 4.44) @ Millwood (1-8, 5.12)

Things to Watch

Brian Matusz has been up and down but has been good recently. In four starts in June, he has gone 26.1 innings with a 2.39 ERA. He's not only been effective, he's keeping the bullpen out of the game; always a good thing for Baltimore. On the other hand, Kevin Millwood has been a train wreck. He has only finished the sixth inning once in June and is carrying a 9.13 ERA. He has allowed seven HRs in the month. For the sake of his trade value he needs a few decent starts.
Adam Jones might be fixing himself, albeit slowly. In April his slash line was .223/.245/.388. In May, .279/.303/.375. So far in June he is .284/.324/.478. Nobody is going to mistake him for an All-Star this year, but at this point in the year, seeing improvement in the young players is the most important thing. Keep it up, Adam!
At one point, the Marlins were considered a possible trade partner for Will Ohman because of their shortage of lefty relievers. Will the O's showcase him?

Trivia

How can the O's not give Jason Berken a spot start soon? He has done everything that could be asked of him in the bullpen. Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, and David Hernandez have had multiple chances to claim a spot in the rotation. Berken's success might be a mirage since he has only pitched 37 innings, but the Orioles should throw him out there and find out.
I've been trying to get excited about Joel Guzman, the former top Dodgers prospect who has 17 homers for AA Bowie, but I just can't. He is DHing a lot, implying he has defensive problems. When I plugged his stats into a minor league equivalency calculator, it came back .235/.280/.438 with four times as many Ks as BBs. Sure, its better than Garrett Atkins, but I'm not on the bandwagon. That OBP is awful.

On Deck @ the San Diego Padres

2010-06-18T19:59:00.003-06:00

It has been a busy and difficult week in the WeaTa home office and for some reason watching a bunch of Oriole baseball seems like relaxation. By Sunday afternoon they will have stranded a small mob of baserunners and I will be anxious to get away from the O's and back to work. Maybe there is some logic to my Oriole addiction.

The O's are always at the forefront of trade rumors so at least there is hope for some change. A couple weeks ago ESPN reported that the O's had interest in Twins middle infield prospect Trevor Plouffe. More recently, super utility-man Jake Fox has been a rumored Oriole target. Neither is a game changer, but they are young-ish and have a higher ceiling than the people they would logically replace, Julio Lugo and Garrett Atkins. Plouffe is 24, Fox is 27.

The O's will be doing business in San Diego against a Padres team that is fighting for first place in their division. Matchups are:

Matusz (2-7, 4.92) @ LeBlanc (4-4, 3.05)
Millwood (0-8, 5.16) @ Richard (4-3, 2.71)
Arrieta (2-0, 2.77) @ Garland (6-5, 3.07)

Things to Watch

Eleven months ago, the Orioles traded Oscar Salazar to the Padres for Cla Meredith. Neither has thrived in their new homes. Cla is at AAA, Salazar is hitting .233/.305/.279 in only 86 ABs. I didn't mind the trade when it went down, but I'd love to be watching Salazar over several of our current corner infield options. Besides, he has this angry pic on his SB Nation profile. That alone must be worth a couple wins.

It will be interesting to see how Petco plays. It is reputed to be an extreme pitcher's park, but is it extreme enough to make Oriole pitching look good? We'll put its reputation to the test.
Nick Markakis brought his frustrations with the team to the press. Was it mere frustration or was it a team leader trying to motivate under-performing players? Impossible to know what was in Nick's mind, but we will see if the offense does any better.

Trivia

Via the San Diego broadcast team, Brian Matusz has lost more games in one year with the Orioles (9) than he did in his entire college career (8).
Cal Ripken announced his retirement 9 years ago tomorrow.
The Orioles signed 4th round pick Trent Mummey, an outfielder from Auburn. They signed 9 of their top 10 picks last year. Hopefully they can continue the trend.

Flirting with History

2010-06-16T21:17:00.004-06:00

The Orioles' winning percentage remains well under .300 and they are starting to invite comparison to some of the worst teams in baseball history. No, they aren't the Cleveland Spiders, but they are looking a lot like the '88 Orioles and the '62 Mets in terms of wins and losses.

Its a valid comparison. This year's Orioles are 18-48, exactly the same record as the '88 Orioles and '62 Mets had at this point in their seasons of futility. But how did they do through the rest of the year? Here they are by month:

'88 Orioles--Finished 54-107

April	1	22	.043
May	10	17	.370
June	11	16	.407
July	10	16	.385
August	14	15	.483
September	8	19	.296
October	0	2	.000

'62 Mets--Finished 40-120

April	3	13	.188
May	9	17	.346
June	8	23	.258
July	6	23	.207
August	8	26	.235
September	6	18	.250

A glance at the '88 Orioles by month shows that they put up some flashy double-digit win months. In fact, once they got through their horrible April losing streak, they were just another bad team, not spectacular at all. The 2010 Orioles will have to improve considerably to match the '88 team's .483 August.

The '62 Mets were a different story. There were consistently bad the entire way. In fact, their highest winning percentage was in May, then they went downhill. The 2010 O's would have to get a little worse to make a run at the Mets. Couldn't happen, could it? Surely some of the injured players will return, slumping hitters will start hitting, and the team will stage a slight rally...enough to keep their record above that of the '62 Mets.

Probably, but regression certainly isn't impossible. There is no telling where the floor is with this team. Imagine the O's trade Ty Wigginton, Jeremy Guthrie, and Will Ohman for prospects that aren't quite major league ready. Then they promote Michael Aubrey (or get Jake Fox) and Brad Bergesen to take their places on the active roster. Mike Gonzalez comes off the DL to take Ohman's roster spot. Could that bring the Orioles into '62 Mets territory? Maybe.

BTW, I'm totally loving the Garrett Atkins release rumors.

On Deck @ The San Francisco Giants

2010-06-14T06:57:00.002-06:00

The Baltimore Orioles played some of their least inspiring baseball against the Mets, and that's saying something. Even though they out-hit the Mets in two of the three games, they lost them all. They often got the lead-off man on, then left him standing there. After the series, Dan Connolly at The Sun asked if this was a worse baseball season than '88 and I found it to be a tough question to answer. It depends on how you look at it. Expectations were different, recent history was different, the mental state of the fan base was different. For me, this year is more disappointing. '88 seemed like an aberration after a two decades of relatively strong teams. This year seems like the next in an endless line of losing years. No end in sight.

Anyway, in baseball you can always look forward. The O's face the San Francisco Giants in an interleague series that is interesting because an NL West Coast team is such a novelty. Many fans will be seeing these guys for the first time. Matchups are:

Tillman (0-2, 5.44) @ Sanchez (4-5, 2.82)
Arrieta (1-0, 4.50) @ TBA
Guthrie (3-7, 3.83) @ Lincecum (6-2, 3.12)

Things to Watch

It will be good to see Aubrey Huff. Fangraphs values Huff (.303/.395/.531) at 2.2 WAR. Pedestrian for a first sacker until compared to Garrett Atkins' -0.9 WAR. The O's made a serious mistake when the let Huff go and rolled the dice on Atkins. Watch Huff as a reminder of the days when the Orioles got some offense from the first base position.
Tim Lincecum is one of the best in the game. He'll probably mow the Orioles down in embarrassing fashion, but this is a guy you won't get to see often because of league affiliation and geography. Enjoy it, even if it comes at the O's expense.
Bergesen down, Simon up. Meh, whatever. Another bullpen shuffle.

Trivia

Presumptive 2011 number 1 draft pick Anthony Rendon was named an All-American last week. I wonder if reporters are already asking him about the Orioles?
Britt Ghiroli is doing her best to drum up some Oriole votes for the All-Star game. We all know the O's will get their one charity All-Star invite and that will be that. Good work though, Britt.
From Baseball Reference:

The O's only have a winning record against one team...the Boston Red Sox (5-4).
Baltimore is 2-15 in games decided by more than 5 runs. I guess because you need to score 5+ runs to get into that category.
The team is 5-2 in extra innings. How did that happen with this pen?
Largely because of days off, they have yet to win on a Monday (0-4). What's today? Crap.
The team is 5-17 (.227) against left-handed starters. Who's starting for the Giants tonight? CRAP!

WeaTa is on Broadway

2010-06-12T22:08:00.002-06:00

Mets Today was kind enough to let Weaver's Tantrum talk O's on his site. In the Q&A we talk managers, The Plan, and Oriole futility. I also put in a good word for the '69 O's. Since the 2010 version is indefensible. One update on what I wrote...with tonight's loss, the Orioles are 17-45, exactly where the '62 Mets stood at this point in their season.

Dan Connolly reports that Andy MacPhail has interviewed Eric Wedge and Bobby Valentine. Andy M. now says the managerial search might last into the off-season. Geez, were the interviews that bad?

On Deck--The New York...Mets?

2010-06-11T16:23:00.002-06:00

Last night's win against the Yankees was possibly the most exciting of the year. Jake Arrieta looked awfully good against a strong Yankee team. One of the few memorable moments of the year came when Arrieta got the big K to end the sixth inning with the bases loaded. Matt Wieters jumped out of his crouch and gave a low fist pump in celebration. It was a small thing, but the Orioles are in desperate need of more small moments like that.

The Mets are next up. They have one of the most dramatic home/road splits in baseball. They are .706 at home, .308 on the road. Hopefully the O's can take advantage of the Mets' problems on the road. Match ups are:

Dickey (3-0, 3.20) @ Guthrie (3-6, 3.71)
Takahashi (4-2, 3.80) @ Matusz (2-6, 5.10)
Pelfrey (8-1, 2.23) @ Millwood (0-7, 4.64)

Things to watch:

The Go-Go Mets lead the NL in stolen bases. They are 10 in CS, meaning that they are selective and good on the base paths. The Orioles have strong-armed catchers behind the plate in Wieters and Tatum. There will be some close plays at second.
On last night's broadcast, the radar gun showed that David Hernandez is throwing 97 mph. That's a few mph faster than he showed as a starter. Maybe he has found a role. A closer on a 17-43 team is somewhat wasted, but Hernandez might be making a claim for the ninth inning that could carry into next year or further. For the short term, he has a terrific opportunity to audition. If the team can get him any leads to protect.
Bob Melvin, rumored to be on the list of Oriole managerial candidates, is a Mets scout. I'll be watching the crowd shots carefully to see if Melvin and Andy MacPhail are sneaking away together.

Poll
Last week, Weaver's Tantrum ran a poll asking readers to predict the O's final record. The voting was very stable for several days until Trembley's termination. Overnight, the higher two choices in the poll rose four percent each as the expense of the lowest choice. At least a few Oriole fans have faith that the managerial change will help.

Trivia

Luke Scott is starting tonight. After Scott's failure to run out a fly ball last night, Juan Samuel had a chance to show the fire he is known for. Instead, he was measured and professional in his response. Is he trying to break the stereotype of the temperamental Dominican? Scott deserved a benching tonight.
Millwood in April--3.38 ERA, 4 SO/BB.
Millwood in May--4.29 ERA, 3 SO/BB.
Millwood in June--9.53 ERA, 1.22 SO/BB. This trend looks ugly. Trade him quick!

Jake Arrieta Day

2010-06-10T06:29:00.002-06:00

Sorry about the recent lack of content. I've been distracted by life and stuff. Also the team's play doesn't encourage one to rush to the keyboard and record the happenings for posterity. The O's have been outscored 54-20 in June.

Last night's 4-2 loss to the Yankees was frustrating because the game was decided by a couple of defensive miscues. One was committed by Julio Lugo, who seems to be getting more playing time under Juan Samuel. Maybe Samuel, a former All-Star second baseman, sees something in Lugo nobody else does, but at this point in a lost season isn't it more constructive to let younger players like Scott Moore or even Robert Andino get the playing time? Odds are neither of those guys are part of the future but at 34 years old, Lugo definitely isn't. It is past time to let Lugo go.

Tonight is about Jake Arrieta's debut. The big man is 24 years old and its time to throw him into the deep end. He doesn't bring the national buzz that Matt Weiters delivered last year in his debut, but with the 2010 Orioles you take what you can get. Actually, that should be the team motto:

The 2010 Orioles: Take what you can get.

Arrieta has stayed in the minors this long because of his penchant for walking batters, so naturally the O's decided to let him debut against one of the most patient teams in baseball. Probably not the best idea. And there is another potential team motto:

Your 2010 O's: Probably not the best idea.

Still, this year is lost and the O's might as well let the young guns get some OJT. Besides, the team might get inspired by Arrieta's debut and hang in there tonight.

Baltimore 2010: They might hang in there tonight!

On Deck--The New York Yankees

2010-06-08T06:48:00.002-06:00

Except there isn't much to say about the Yankees. The O's have already played nine series against them. At least it seems that way. It never goes well either. Juan Samuel must have secretly hoped Dave Trembely would last another week or so and get the team past the Red Sox/Yankees part of the sked. What can you do though? Insane amounts of games against really good teams is a part of life in the big bad AL East.

One the O's are through this they get some relatively soft interleague games. Here are the pitchers.

Hughes (7-1, 2.54) @ Millwood (0-6, 4.29)
Sabathia (5-3, 4.14) @ Tillman (0-1, 7.71)
Burnett (6-3, 3.72) @ Guthrie (3-6, 3.71)

Things to Watch
If you can find something to watch in this series please email and tell me your secret. My strategy is to find something else to do for the first few innings then watch the rest if the score is close. Unless the O's start Manny Machado at shortstop, there isn't much that is too compelling about this incipient ass-kicking.

Other Stuff

This Yankee's writer says it is time for the Yanks to "wax some stiffs." I'd hate it less if I could argue.
As referenced above, the O's picked Manny Machado, a high school shortstop, with their first round pick. After the reach they made last year, this was a solid pick. Pretty much every draft preview had Machado in the top five. Additionally, he fills an organizational need. The down side is that he has no prayer of making the majors until 2014 or later, but almost certainly was the best available position player. Its tough to argue with this pick. MLB TV thought he projected as a .300 hitter with 15-20 HR power. He is a Scott Boras client which means some drama is likely coming to the signing deadline, but the O's have done a good job in that area lately. It will work out after some panicky moments.
In related news, Matt Hobgood, last year's #1 pick, is 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA at Delmarva. In 59 innings he has walked 26 and struck out 39. There is nothing there that makes him look worthy of the top ten pick the O's spent on him. He looks like an overpaid 9th round pick.
Oddly, the O's actual 9th round pick from last year, Ryan Berry, is playing very well. After starting in Delmarva he earned a promotion to Frederick.

'09 Sherrill vs. '10 Ohman

2010-06-06T20:16:00.002-06:00

Its the trade deadline. You are a contending team with bullpen problems. Which player would you rather trade for? The '09 version of George Sherrill or the '10 version of Will Ohman? Which would you give up more to get?

Both are stocky lefties. The O's list Ohman at 190 lbs., but c'mon...not if they closed every crabcake joint in the greater Baltimore area for the next four months. Both are situational guys who the Orioles tried to force into the ninth inning role. Both are fastball/slider pitchers with similar velocity. They are close in age. Both have team-friendly contracts. How do you pick?

Overall--In his time with the Orioles, Sherrill had a 2.40 ERA with a 1.137 WHIP. He K'ed 8.5 per 9 innings and walked 2.8.

Going into today's game, Ohman had a 3.06 ERA with a 1.472 WHIP. He struck out a few more, with 9.7 per 9, but walked a few more as well...5.6 per nine.

Consistency--Its a tough thing to measure, but here is one way to look at it. Sherrill's worst month of '09 was in April when he allowed 2 HRs while allowing opponents to hit .317/.349/.556 against him.

Ohman has struggled in his last month, allowing 2 HRs and allowing a .286/.375/.571. Both have had some lows.

Splits--Both are death on left-handed hitting.

Sherrill vs. LHB allowed .128/188/.154. Awesome.
Ohman vs. LHB allowed .206/.317/..235. Not awesome, but still very good.

Sherrill vs. RHB--.244/.321/.375.
Ohman vs. RHB--.267/.371/.567.

Saves--Lots of smart people have done a lot of work to convince fans and baseball people that the save is an over-valued stat. There is no doubt that people put too much emphasis on it during the Thigpen Era. On the other hand, if you think it is totally worthless, call Juan Samuel up in the bottom of the ninth and see what he thinks.

Some teams would probably think Sherrill's saves are a selling point. Others wouldn't care as much.

Contract--Sherrill cost his employer 2.75 million last year. He was also under team control through arbitration for the next year.

Ohman is on a straight one-year contract for 1.35 million.

Contracts don't matter much when deciding who to bring out of the pen, but the O's will have Ohman on the trading block soon enough, and his bargain contract will be a big selling point.

Its clear that '09 Sherrill is the better pitcher. On the other hand, Ohman's low contract makes him appealing to more teams. I think we will find that Sherrill gets a healthier return than Ohman, but there are still plenty of teams that will put together a quality package for Ohman this year.

On Deck--The Boston Red Sox

2010-06-04T06:00:00.001-06:00

The Baltimore Orioles are playing their worst baseball yet. When they started 2-16, they were losing squeakers and fans could imagine some of the close losses turning to wins soon. Now, the O's are getting thumped. Still no official word on the management situation but you have to assume that Dave Trembley is out, Juan Samuel is in. If nothing else, Samuel will add some energy to the dugout. He was once fined for his role in a fight with Rob Dibble. Fighting Rob Dibble shows good sense as well as energy.

Samuel will get his feet wet against the Boston Red Sox who the O's swept a month ago. This isn't the same Red Sox team though. The Sox have won seven of their last ten and their bats have warmed with the weather. They have moved into third place. Their sleeping bats woke up. As for the Oriole bats, they have scored 14 runs in their 8 game losing streak...less than 2 runs per game. Matchups are:

Buchholz (7-3, 2.73) @ Tillman (0-0, 3.18)
Lester (6-2, 2.97) @ Guthrie (3-5, 3.84)
TBA @ Matusz (2-5, 5.28)

Things to Watch
In this series its all about what happens in the dugout. Does the team show some fire? Who coaches third base? Does Samuel make signigicantly different tactical decisions? Does he bench the first player who doesn't run out a ground ball? Will he change the line up? Will he change the way relievers are used? Will any of that make a difference?

An interesting question for the long term is how well Samuel might get along with his bosses. He is nobody's Yes Man. He showed that as a player when he demanded a trade from the Mets in 1989.

Trivia
Today is Cla Meredith's birthday. Have a good one Cla.

Next!!!

2010-06-03T22:54:00.003-06:00

Literally every news site that reports on the Baltimore Orioles is saying that Dave Trembley has managed his last game for the O's. If everybody is right, and the signs point to it, then DT ended his Orioles managerial career on a down note. The team extended its losing streak to eight games while getting swept out of New York.

In a sense, what happened to Trembley was horribly unfair. He was handed Garrett Atkins and Julio Lugo then told that this year was about wins and losses. That's what "set up to fail" looks like and Andy MacPhail should claim a share of the blame for himself at the inevitable press conference.

Really though, could Dave Trembley have managed the team to a winning record, even with better personnel? He was hired because he was supposedly good with young players but none of the O's youngsters have taken a step forward this year. Most have taken steps back. Trembley's line up construction was questionable, as was his bullpen management. The team looked unprepared from day one, especially in the pen. Nobody realized that Mike Gonzalez' low velocity during spring training was significant? It was time for a change and the team made it.

Juan Samuel is rumored to be the interim manager. If nothing else, he promises to provide great blog fodder because he is fiery with a capital F. In 2000 he took a 15 game suspension for his role in a brawl. He was the first base coach at the time. As a player, Samuel once got into an altercation with Shane Rawley because he felt Rawley wasn't throwing enough strikes. They yelled at each other on the mound then continued the argument in the runway.

Despite the high probability that Samuel would become the East Coast version of Ozzie Guillen, it would still be best if the O's could snare a proven big league manager. Valentine, Garner, Showalter, Kelly, whoever. If there is one thing the Orioles should have learned from the last few managers, its that the AL East is no place for on-the-job-training.

The Journey of Jake Arrieta

2010-06-02T20:20:00.005-06:00

Rather than dwell on the ugliness of the Yankee series, its time to take a look at the hottest prospect the O's have in the minors; Jake Arrieta.

He has been on scouts' radar for years. He was first drafted by the Reds in the 31st round of the '04 draft, and again by the Brewers in the 26th round of the '05 draft. Instead, he spent a year at Weatherford JUCO outside Ft. Worth, Texas then transferred to Texas Christian University. TCU's most famous sporting alumni is Slingin' Sammy Baugh who also played minor league baseball. Arrieta was an All-Conference player as a collegian.

He was regarded as a first-round talent but slipped on draft boards in '07. Arrieta attributed that to inconsistency at TCU, but his decision to sign with Scott Boras might have had something to do with it. In the scout.com interview in the link, Arrieta described himself as a fastball/slider pitcher who mixed in an occasional curve and changeup.

The O's drafted Arrieta in the fifth round, paying above slot to sign him. At 6'5", 225 lbs., he had the body for the bigs. He tore up Frederick in '08, striking out over a batter per inning but walking 4.06 per 9 innings as well. Control was always a little bit of a problem for Jake. The next year at Bowie, Arrieta was equally dominant, with a 2.59 ERA and an even higher strikeout rate than the year before (10.68 per 9 innings). A promotion to AAA didn't go as well. Arrieta finished the AAA season with a 3.93 ERA, 7.66 Ks per 9 innings, but fewer walks (3.24 per 9).

Coming into the 2010 season, scouts were high on Arrieta's potential. Mark Hulet at Fangraphs projected him to be a solid #3 starter who kept the ball in the park and had a fastball in the 87-93 range. Hulet said Arrieta had three pitches; a fastball, slider, and change.

From the beginning of '10, Arrieta was unhittable at Norfolk. He only allowed 45 hits (3 HRs) in 71 innings. The only reason he is still in the minors is that he walked a lot of batters. In a four game stretch in early May he walked 18 batters in 24 innings (6.75 per 9 innings). The accepted wisdom was that Arrieta couldn't manage the AL East until he proved he could get his walks down.

Since that ugly stretch, Arrieta has only allowed 6 walks in his last 22 innings (2.45 per 9 innings). If he keeps this up, his eventual call-up should be a highlight of an otherwise dismal year.

How will Andy MacPhail make room for him though? There are three choices:

Start Arrieta in the pen or move another starter to the pen. The problem is that the O's want Arrieta to continue to work on stamina by starting. Same with the other young pitchers in the rotation. Kevin Millwood and Jeremy Guthrie have been too effective to move to the pen. Doing so would also hurt their trade value.
Send Brian Matusz to the minors to make room. Hope for a turnaround similar to Brad Bergesen's. The problem with that plan is that Matusz really hasn't been THAT bad. Also, when Matusz lights up AAA, the O's have the same problems when they try to bring Matusz back up. Update: Bergesen got killed at Yankee Staduim last night. Maybe he will be the guy headed to AAA?
Trade Millwood or Guthrie. This is probably the best long-term plan. The O's can let Arrieta dominate AAA for another month or two while they find the best deal possible for one of the vets.

Of course there could be an injury tomorrow that clears the way for Arrieta. Let's hope not though. A more controlled promotion would be better.

On Deck @ the New York Yankees

2010-06-01T06:12:00.001-06:00

The Baltimore Orioles are 15-36 and going in the wrong direction. Just when the bullpen was pulling itself together, injuries to Koji Uehara and Alfredo Simon derailed those halting signs of progress and left the pen and the team floundering. The O's have lost five straight including a three game stomping in Toronto. Now the team is headed to New York which means they are safe from Lyle Overbay, but back in Robinson Cano's sights.

At this point the Orioles have little to play for except pride and player development. Sadly, Yankee Stadium isn't the best place for those things. Matchups are:

Matusz (2-5, 5.76) @ Vasquez (3-5, 6.86)
Bergesen (3-3, 5.96) @ Phil Hughes (6-1, 2.70)
Kevin Millwood (0-5, 3.89) @ CC Sabathia (4-3, 4.16)

Things to Watch

Javier Vasquez has allowed 9 home runs in 42 innings of work. The O's might not win but if Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton take their big cuts in the Yankee's launching pad it could get exciting.
Brad Bergesen hasn't been able to get in a groove this year but his last start was promising even though he didn't get the win. It would be great to see Bergy put a few good starts together. He was a bright spot in an ugly year in 2009. Why not in '10 as well?
The Kevin Millwood Win Watch continues. Millwood's lack of run support has kept him out of the win column. The O's probably won't have an offensive explosion against lefty Sabathia.

Poll
Guess the O's final record in the sidebar. They are currently sitting at .294, which seems too bad to maintain, but another September losing streak could be in the cards. The infamous '88 Orioles finished with a .335 winning percentage. Last year's team finished at .395. Could the team do better than that?

Trivia

Here is a closer look at those strange hats the O's wore Sunday.
Jake Arrieta's control problems have kept him out of the majors so far. Knock on wood, Arrieta has only walked 6 in his last 22 innings, a vast improvement. He remains nearly unhittable in AAA. How long before he forces his way to Baltimore?
The Mariners shook up their bullpen, calling up former Oriole Garrett Olson.

Happy Memorial Day

2010-05-31T04:57:00.002-06:00

Happy Memorial Day to all blog readers. As you celebrate the holiday please take a moment to remember what it is all about. I'll be thinking of a friend who is a nurse aboard the US Navy Hospital ship Mercy, currently stationed in the Pacific. She is a reservist who volunteered for extended active duty this summer. I'm very proud to know her.

In the narrow world of the Baltimore Orioles, Memorial Day is a day in which to ponder potential changes. The Orioles are 15-36 and whatever hope there was of a recovery went by the wayside in Toronto where the O's took a methodical three game pounding.

For better or worse, there don't seem to be any managerial changes on the way. At the Baltimore Sun, Jeff Zrebiec answered the question in advance by saying that Dave Trembley was likely to make it through the day. Andy MacPhail was not scheduled to make a trip to New York to meet with Trembely, and Zrebiec's sources say no move is imminent.

The official position of Weaver's Tantrum remains unchanged. Dave Trembley should be fired the moment a superior replacement is located. As soon as Bobby Valentine, Bob Melvin, or Tom Kelly is ready, make the move. There is nothing to be gained by firing Dave Trembley only to hand the reins to some other interim, never-managed-in-the-bigs-before manager. The Orioles need a tested manager who has won something in his career. No more OJT for Baltimore managers.

Happy Memorial Day.

On Deck @ the Toronto Blue Jays

2010-05-28T06:01:00.001-06:00

In the comments a couple of weeks ago, someone wrote that they thought these were getting hard for me to write. After a loss like last night's these are definitely tough. Its a lot easier to dwell on Oakland. First, the management. Watching Dave Trembley pull Berken was reminiscent of the old Simpson's softball episode where Mr. Burns benched Darryl Strawberry in favor of Homer because of the lefty/righty matchups. Mr. Burns was outsmarting himself, just as Trembley did. Second, there was some bad luck. The two straight infield hits against Hendrickson were unfortunate. On the other hand, the O's were lucky to score five runs.

At least four players have no business in a major league starting lineup. Patterson and Montanez should be in the minors. Lugo should retire. Atkins...just isn't good. This lineup couldn't generate a single extra base hit last night. If they had, maybe Trembley would have handled the bullpen differently. Anyway, on to Toronto.

Fri, Millwood @ Marcum
Sat, TBA (Tillman) @ Cecil
Sun, Guthrie @ TBA (Romero?)

Things to Watch

You have to love a hot prospect coming to the majors, and Tillman fits the bill. He was a big part of the trade that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle and its time for him to show what he has. It seems like Tillman has been around forever but he is only 22. He has done well to get to the majors as quickly as he has.
The bullpen will be a running sore until some players get off the DL. So maybe by 2011 it will be OK. Based on the last two games, it looks like Dave Trembley is going to treat Will Ohman as the closer. That means the Orioles' best situational reliever will be on the bench waiting for a ninth inning lead to come along. I should be happy since I've been complaining that Ohman's workload is too heavy. He'll definitely get some rest now.
Roch Kubatko has a peculiar post up in which he says he doesn't expect Trembley to get fired but is staying by his phone anyway. Did Roch hear a rumor or is it just a hunch?

Links
A couple great links from a couple great sites. Using the Joe Blanton and Scott Kazmir deals as comps, Camden Depot projects what a Millwood deal might bring back. Millwood for a major league ready first baseman? I'm in!

Worried about Brian Matusz' recent performance? It isn't as bad as you might think.

Trivia

Who was Brad Bergesen yelling at after the eighth inning? The bullpen? Was he trying to fire up the offense? He looked mad.
Minor league records are:

Norfolk: 21-27
Bowie: 23-24
Frederick: 28-19
Delmarva: 20-28

Bowie is making a run at .500! That's the future.

Weaver's Tantrum is off for a quick backpacking trip this weekend. See you Monday.

The Forgotten Man

2010-05-27T06:34:00.002-06:00

The Oriole bullpen has attracted a lot of attention. Fans talk about the ninth inning guys, debate whether one of the long men should be a starter, discuss the recent call-ups, and argue about whether Matt Albers is worth keeping. For some reason, Cla Meredith's name rarely comes up.
In fact, a search of the Weaver's Tantrum archives reveals that his name hasn't been typed here since the season preview. So how has Cla been doing?

A quick glance at his stats is not encouraging. He is 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in 14 innings, 20 games. He has walked 3, struck out 7 and allowed 4 HRs. The problem with looking at relief pitchers, especially guys like Meredith who only face a batter or two per appearance, is that one bad outing can skew the picture. That is the case with Cla.

On May 15, Meredith woke up with an ERA under 2 and hadn't allowed an earned run in over a month. He went to bed that night with an ERA over 5 after getting beat up by the Indians. That was the game in which Alfredo Simon blew a save opportunity and Meredith was called on to stop the Indians' conga line around the base paths. He didn't. This stat is meaningless for many reasons, but if that game is removed from Meredith's season, he holds a 3.21 ERA.

Cla seems to have lost his mojo since the collapse against Cleveland. He has allowed earned runs in three of his last five outings. Maybe he's lost some confidence. Maybe the opposition is getting used to his low arm slow. Maybe he's just a league-average pitcher whose stats are reverting to norm. In any case, it would be great if he regained his pre-May 15 form. The O's pen needs all the help it can get.

On Deck, the Oakland A's (Updated)

2010-05-24T20:46:00.004-06:00

A disappointing bunch of nothing happened today. Nobody got fired, DFAed, or diagnosed with a season-ending injury. Nobody got traded or called up from the minors. Its pretty much the same shorthanded team that took the field on Sunday. One difference is that the O's aren't playing the Nats anymore. They are up against a surging A's team that just finished sweeping the Giants in their interleague rivalry game. The A's pitching dominated that series, allowing only one run in three games. That bodes ill for the Baltimore bats.

Baltimore has a lot of problems in every facet of the game but right now the bullpen is the most worrisome area. Koji Uehara's elbow is hurt again. There is no word on how bad the injury might be. Alfredo Simon hurt his hamstring in Sunday's game. It seems minor but with the Orioles' luck this year Simon might find himself next to Brian Roberts in the pneumonia/back/abdominal wing of the hospital. Its amazing that young professional athletes could have so many health problems. Pneumonia? Really?

Here are the starting matchups:

Tue,Braden @ Guthrie
Wed, Cahill @ Matusz
Thur, Gonzalez @ Hernandez (?)

Things to Watch

With Simon and Uehara out, at least one pitcher has to be called up from AAA Norfolk immediately. Roch Kubatko thinks it will be Frank Mata, the Tides' closer. Who the $%#@? In 19 1/3 innings, Mata has a 2-1 record with a 1.86 ERA, 1.138 WHIP. He has walked 8 and K'ed 14. 19 innings isn't nearly enough to make any kind of judgement, but the O's have to do something. Mata is as good a choice as anyone. New players are fun to watch.
The Orioles face two tough young lefties in Braden and Gonzalez. That means Dave Trembley will chase Garrett Atkins off the bench and into the lineup. Atkins hasn't had a hit since May 15. He is 0-15 since then. The death watches have become one of the more interesting parts of following this team. Which Oriole career will end first?
Does Hernandez make his next start or is he off to bolster the overworked pen? Update: Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun believes Hernandez will be skipped in favor of Brad Bergesen. Chris Tillman or Jake Arrieta would take the fifth starter's spot on Saturday. Tillman is already on the 40-man roster and he got a taste of the majors last year. Arrieta walks too many AAA batters. Its got to be Tillman.

Poll
On the sidebar is a new poll. Which Oriole will no longer be an Oriole? Is Uehara's injury season-ending? Will Atkins' poor hitting be his undoing? Is Julio Lugo too old to hold a roster spot? Will Dave Trembley be fired for Koji's fragility, Atkins' incompetence, and Lugo's age?

Trivia

No Oriole is in the top five at their position in the All-Star voting. That is due to a combination of poor play and fan indifference.
The O's would have to play .581 ball the rest of the year to finish .500.
Tuesday is Miggi's birthday. He'll be 36...um, 38. Or so.

The Pen

2010-05-23T22:33:00.003-06:00

Over the last few days the Orioles have lost the fragile Koji Uehara as well as Alfredo Simon to injury. If you are an Oriole fan you can get depressed or you can see this as an opportunity to get some fresh blood into a troubled bullpen. Here are some of the key pitchers in Norfolk...all AAA stats are from the Tides site:

Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman--They are the two sexiest choices. Both are starters with high upside. Arrieta has been unhittable at AAA but 30 walks in 56 innings indicate that he still has work to do to master his control. He has to have his control under control before going out to face the patient hitters of the AL East. Tillman hasn't been as dominant or consistent as Arrieta but he does have some major league experience and much better control. He has only issued 11 free passes in 51 innings. If Tillman comes up it would likely force David Hernandez to the bullpen. Hernandez really hasn't been bad as a fifth starter but if he cut back to only using his best two pitches he could really be tough out of the pen.

Assuming Arrieta stays at AAA, that leaves one spot in the pen if both Koji and Simon have to go on the DL.

Alberto Castillo--There is always the possibility that Castillo comes back to Baltimore. He is a lefty and he does well at AAA. On the other hand, he looked awful in his last turn as an Oriole and is currently the owner of a hefty 12+ ERA and 2+ WHIP. Its time to give someone else a shot.

Dennis Sarfate--He's been an Oriole before and boasts a 1.69 AAA ERA this year. His 8 walks in 11 innings tell a different story though. He issued a lot of walks as an Oriole and does not appear to have beaten that problem. The O's would have to make room for him on the 40-man roster if they called him up.

Frank Mata--The former Twins farmhand has been closing for Norfolk. He has done a passable job but with only 19 1/3 innings in the Baltimore organization, Mata probably needs more time to prove himself. At 26 years old he isn't a spring chicken and he would also require a 40-man roster move.

Armando Gabino--He was bad in spring training but has been excellent at Norfolk. Gabino has only pitched 21 innings, but he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He has 22 SOs while only walking 7. His spot start indicates he would be able to pitch multiple innings out of the pen. He is not on the 40-man roster but looks like the best choice anyway.

Of course the O's could always go with a short pen and hope Simon comes back quickly. Not a bad choice if the medical reports are favorable. This will be an interesting off day.

A Year Ago Today

2010-05-22T23:32:00.002-06:00

On May 22, 2009, the Baltimore Orioles released Adam Eaton. They brought him aboard hoping he would hold down a spot in the rotation and give the young arms plenty of time to develop in the minors. The experiment failed. Eaton was spectacularly bad and by May 22 the Orioles had to admit he was no longer a major league pitcher.

Jason Berken got the call to replace Eaton. Berken had a tough year as well and there were many fans, including me, who were ready to write him off. Berken had learned some lessons though and he came into 2010 better than before. He is a valuable member of the bullpen and still only 26 years old, with time to improve.

I bring this up because Garrett Atkins is this year's Adam Eaton. He was signed to give a couple of prospects a little more time to develop. Like Eaton, Atkins as been terrible. Now, with more than a quarter of the season gone, the Orioles can no longer pretend his poor performance is a fluke. What you see is what you get. Its time for the team to cut its losses and give Michael Aubrey a shot at first base.

Like Berken, Aubrey isn't regarded as one of the Orioles' more talented prospects. At 27 years old, I'm not sure he can be called a prospect at all. But like Berken, Aubrey might be able to learn some lessons this year and make himself into an effective bench player for future years. Just like last year, its time for the O's to make a change and get rid of some veteran deadwood.

Early Fire Sale?

2010-05-21T22:04:00.002-06:00

Today, Mike Cameron at Fangraphs ran an article proposing the Orioles stage an early fire sale. The O's are 14-29 (.326), 16.5 games out of first place. Cameron writes "the Orioles should take advantage of the one silver lining in the cloud that is their 2010 season – the ability to be the first seller to market."

Cameron further opines that the O's could "peddle the likes of Kevin Millwood, Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton, and Miguel Tejada without any serious competition from other teams who will join the market in a month or two." I would add Jeremy Guthrie and Will Ohman to the list. Might as well try to trade Ohman before his labrum buckles under his current workload. Is that really the right thing to do for the team though?

As hard as it is to believe, stranger things have happened than an Oriole turnaround. To find a comparably bad team that turned their year around I had to go alllllllllll the way back to last year. On this date in 2009 the Rockies were 16-24, 12 games behind the streaking Dodgers. They fired their manager, replaced him with a proven leader, and rallied to take the Wild Card slot. Read the comments under the article to which I just linked. They could all be applied to the 2010 Orioles. Especially the parts about Garrett Atkins.

A turnaround like that is unlikely though. What if the O's did decide to raise the white flag on this season and dangle some veterans in May? Cameron writes about the "market" but only describes half of it; the selling half. Who are the potential buyers?

The top teams in the league aren't greatly improved by the veterans the Orioles have to offer. Would the Rays, Phillies, or Yankees give up a good prospect for the marginal improvement Ty Wigginton might represent?

Some fringe contenders might benefit greatly from some of the Oriole veterans. For example, the Reds and Tigers are each half a game out of first in their respective divisions. Both could use the kind of help the Oriole vets could offer. I don't think either is ready to make a trade though. They want to wait six weeks and see if they are still in contention. No point in giving up prospects in May if you might be out of contention by July. Anyway, an internal option might come to light. Why buy this early?

Cameron wraps up his article by noting that Taco Bell does well at 2:00am because they are the only place still open. True, but I think a different metaphor applies here. You can open a fireworks stand in March and be the first to have 4th of July products for sale. But nobody is going to buy that early.

On Deck @ the Washington Nationals

2010-05-21T15:47:00.002-06:00

I've been trying to stay optimistic in these "On Deck's," but the O's are 13-29, losers of 5 of their last 6, and now face the possibility of getting stomped by their neighbors, the Washington Nationals. Until six weeks ago, the Nats were generally agreed to be the most screwed up franchise in baseball. I really don't want to talk about who holds that title now.

The Orioles looked good in their first game against Texas, but that second one...yeesh. When the O's starter gets shelled, the game is over. It won't be the offense or the pen that saves the day. To be fair, Jason Berken was quite good in relief, going 4 1/3, allowing only 1 earned run. Otherwise you didn't miss anything if you chose to watch The Office or something. Anyway, on with the Nats.
They started off hot but have lost 6 of 7 and are about to embark on a west coast swing. They need this series pretty badly. Matchups are:

David Hernandez vs. Scott Olsen
Brad Bergesen vs. Craig Stammen
Kevin Millwood vs. TBA

Things to Watch

Scott Moore. The O's brought him up and sent down Alberto Castillo. Its about time. They also had to move Justin Turner from the 40 man roster which seemed a little odd to me. Castillo, Garrett Atkins, or Pedro Viola are a part of this team's future? I guess it doesn't matter much. Turner probably won't get claimed anyway. Most teams have their rosters set by now. Anyway, Moore is new and somewhat interesting. He is a good player when he is healthy. Which isn't often.
Kevin Millwood's pursuit of a win. That poor man has had no run support and a weak bullpen behind him. Let's win one for the man.
Matt Wieters has a sore knee after fouling a ball off it. He should be back Saturday, but we'll see.
The death watches continue. How much longer do Garrett Atkins, Dave Trembley, and the coaching staff have? That off day on Monday looms large.

Best Chance for an Oriole Win
I am going to discontinue this section. Partly because the O's win so few games. Partly because the ones they do win are never the ones I expect them to win. Get dominated by a no name pitcher but beat Greinke? OK. Maybe instead of predicting wins I will start predicting the next Oriole to get sent down/released/fired. I say Trembley beats Atkins out the door. Managers are cheaper to fire than free agent first basemen.

Trivia

Birthdays! Today is Matt Wieters' birthday. Contrary to popular belief, it is NOT Dec. 25. Sunday is Mike Gonzalez' birthday. Drink one for him. Gonzalez is scheduled to throw an inning tomorrow, so he could be back soon. Celebrate!

A Word on Pitch Counts

2010-05-20T06:30:00.002-06:00

A lot of ink has been spilled on pitch counts for starters and I don't want to wade into that debate. Despite all of the strong opinions, we really don't know too much on the topic. We know that at some point in a pitcher's day he starts to tire, his mechanics get a little sloppy and his velocity dips slightly. To major league hitters, its a big difference. The magic number of pitches differs from one pitcher to the next.

An overlooked aspect of pitch counts is how they relate to the bullpen. Its been on my mind since Lookout Landing did an article on it a month ago. We really don't have any idea how many pitches a reliever throws. When we watch on TV we don't see when a reliever gets up and starts throwing. If he warms up for an inning and doesn't get called, he's thrown twenty or thirty pitches even though the pitch count shows zero. Then if the manager wants him to pitch the next inning he has to throw enough to stay warm in case of a quick offensive turn for his team. If his team gets a few base runners and its a long half-inning, he keeps warming up because he know he has to come out at full speed. Then he goes out to pitch, throws eight more warm ups from the mound and starts with a real pitch count of fifty or sixty pitches.

Think I'm exaggerating? Mike Flanagan once counted every pitch a particular starter threw, warm ups and all. In the sixth inning the pitcher hit 250 on Flanny's real pitch count.

I believe that is part of what happened to the O's pen last night, on the first hot day of the year. Matt Albers came in after what appeared to be a long warm up. Again, its tough to tell exactly how long from a TV broadcast. He isn't the best conditioned athlete anyway, and he looked bad. Tired? Hard to say. Then Koji came in, threw thirty pitches and looked like he was finishing a nine inning start. Again, he's not in great shape after his injury, so maybe it was just him. But when the team goes through six relief pitchers in a nine inning game, the team is putting a lot of wear on pitchers arms through warm ups. Also consider pitchers who warm up but never get callled into the game.

Those warm up tosses aren't free. The pitchers are doing many of them at close to full effort. I'm not one to criticize Dave Trembley's bullpen management. He has more than his share of crap to work with. I do think that his tendency to run so many relief pitchers through games is an issue because it costs so many pitches. It may look like Will Ohman only threw to one batter, but he actually threw two innings worth in the pen.

The measure of a relief pitcher shouldn't be pitch count in the game, it should be pitch count including warm ups. We shouldn't pay attention to how many game appearances a reliever has, we should count how many times he is asked to jump up and throw in the pen.

On Deck @ the Texas Rangers

2010-05-18T23:21:00.002-06:00

After splitting a series against the Royals to split a homestand against three of the worst teams in the AL, its clear where the Orioles are. They are a team that can play .500 ball against the weak sisters and something less than that against the big boys.

Now the O's are headed to Texas to play the Rangers, who aren't sure how good they are. They are in first place in their division, but they are also the only team with a winning record in their division. The Rangers are 2-11 against AL East teams if that provides any context. The Blue Jays swept them in a three game series this past weekend. One could make a reasonable argument that the Rangers are no better than the Orioles, despite what the standings show.

Here are the matchups for this two game set:

Wed, Guthrie vs. Harden
Thur, Matusz vs. Feldman

Things to Watch

Luke Scott. The lumberjack has hit seven home runs in his last twelve games. His batting average is up 60 points in that time; his slugging % jumped almost 150 points. When he is hot, he is one of the most exciting players in baseball.
Starting pitching. Guts and Matusz both threw nice games in their last outings. That is not true of the opposing starters. Harden allowed 7 runs in 2 2/3 against Toronto, Feldman lasted 7 1/3 but allowed 5 runs. I know its stupidly optimistic of me, but I think the O's can take both these games.
Alfredo Simon. I'm not opposed to a manager picking a ninth inning pitcher and sticking with him. I'm just not sure why Dave Trembley picked Simon. Actually I am sure. Simon looks like a closer. He is big and strong and throws 97 MPH. Sadly, not even 'Fredo knows where that ball is going. He's a WHIP nightmare at 1.80. Doesn't EVERYBODY know that Simon is going to screw up a couple more times, then Koji will get a chance? Lets skip past the agony and tell Koji that he'll be pitching the ninth. Pretty please?

Best Chance for an Oriole Win
Like I said, both these games look winnable. If I had to pick, I'd say that Guthrie is looking sharper and sharper. Even his predilection towards the occasional hit batsman seems to work for him, forcing hitters off the plate. I think he applies that veteran guile to get a win against a young Texas team.

Trivia

Will Ohman continues to lead the league in appearances with 20. Dude is going to have to fake an injury to get a few days off.
I heard on tonight's broadcast that the O's are the only team in the AL without a home run from the first base position. The only way I see that changing is if Luke Scott plays some first in the upcoming interleague games. Good work, Garrett Atkins!

On Deck--The KC Royals

2010-05-17T05:57:00.002-06:00

The Orioles are coming off a series against Cleveland that couldn't have been much worse. They did manage to win one of three but that win fades from memory in comparison with the negative that went down.

Alfredo Simon and Cla Meredith combined to give up eight runs in the ninth inning of one game. We all knew Simon would blow a save eventually. The only shock was that it was so spectacular.
On May 12 Brian Roberts was transferred to the 60 day disabled list, retroactive to April 9. It was a procedural move since Roberts wasn't likely to be ready by June 9 anyway, but its not encouraging to the fans.
David Hernandez was scratched from his start with a "pinching" in his shoulder. Mark Hendrickson made a spot start and was about as effective as Hernandez has been, allowing three runs in five innings and taking the loss.
The offense scored three runs in the last two games, all on solo HRs, two by Ty Wigginton. Where would the team be without him? Oh yeah, last place.
Rhyne Hughes was sent down to make room for Alberto Castillo who was needed to replace Hendrickson in the pen. Castillo allowed two runs in 2/3 of an inning yesterday, meaning he will be headed right back down once the O's figure out the extent of Hernandez' injury.

Now the O's have a two game set against Kansas City and as luck would have it, Zack Greinke's turn in the rotation is coming up. This team can't catch a break.

Bergesen vs. Davies
Millwood vs. Greinke

Things to Watch
Who do you think I am? PT Barnum couldn't promote a two game series between these last place teams. Mostly I'll be paying attention to Norfolk to see if Chris Tillman gets skipped in their rotation, indicating he is likely to replace Hernandez in Baltimore. By my count, Tillman should be pitching Tuesday. Unless he's not.

Best Chance for an Oriole Win
Are the O's more likely to beat Kyle Davies or Zack Greinke? Hmmm.

Misc.

On his Facebook page, Rhyne Hughes says "Confidence is a stain you can't wipe off." I applaud Rhyne's efforts to stay in touch with fans, but he was sent down after going 10 for 47 (.213) with no HRs and 19 strikeouts. First base has been such a black hole I am waiting for hitting coach Terry Crowley to pick up a bat and insert himself into the lineup.
Will Ohman leads the majors in appearances with 19. Dave Trembley needs to find another reliever he trusts or Ohman will be shot by August.
In his first three games with the Orioles, Corey Patterson was 6-13 with a home run and a couple defensive gems. In his last two games, he is 0-7 with two strikeouts.
Despite the negativity engendered by the last two ugly losses, the team is 10-10 in its last 20. It seems to be morphing into the .500ish team fans expected this year.

Terry Crowley and the OBP Revolution

2010-05-16T22:34:00.004-06:00

Several days ago I had the opportunity to be a guest blogger on ESPN. I wrote an article that, among other things, was critical of Terry Crowley as the Oriole hitting coach. Link is a couple entries below. Today, Kevin Cowherd at The Sun wrote an article criticizing those of us who share a negative view of Crowley's work. Here is what Cowherd wrote:

The horrible offense, I see, has renewed the calls on sports-talk shows and message boards for hitting coach Terry Crowley to be fired...
Me, I don't get it.
The guy has been a major league hitting coach for 24 years. This is his 16th season as an Orioles coach.
What happened — did he suddenly get stupid? Suddenly forget everything he knew about hitting?
"All I can say is, Crow works his tail off," said Ty Wigginton, who's still scorching hot, 12-for-27 in his past seven games. "He is absolutely an unbelievable hitting coach. He's in that cage 24 hours a day, pretty much, and nobody sees the work he puts in.
"That's one job that [doesn't] ever get the credit it deserves. And [hitting coaches] take a lot of heat when they don't deserve it either. He's definitely one of the best I've had."
Please. Don't tell me a good man like Terry Crowley is the problem on this team.
Not with all the other issues the Orioles have.
That's just ridiculous.

Before I go any further I want to say that I have nothing but respect for The Sun and for Kevin Cowherd. They work like Trojans to give Oriole fans quick, accurate reporting. In this case, I just disagree with a particular opinion. I hope that if Mr. Cowherd ever stumbles across this response to his article he will take it in the spirit it was intended; not as an attack on him, but as a defense and clarification of my own viewpoint.

I don't think Terry Crowley is getting stupid. I believe he is a hard worker and a good man. I've heard those things a number of times from a number of different sources. Beyond that I believe him to be a great Oriole with deep roots in the organization. Did you know that Crowley has spent all or part of six different decades with the O's? He came up with the Orioles in '69, was a player for them through parts of the '70s and '80s, coached for them in the late '90s, '00s, and now the '10s. With that said, I question whether the Crow should be the hitting coach today. Given what Cowherd admits to be a "horrible offense," I don't think that is a "ridiculous" question to ask.

My specific issue with Crowley is that I don't believe he has changed with the times. When he took over as hitting coach before the 1999 season, it was a different era. Without making judgments, lets just say it was an era in which power was the dominant aspect of offense. Players went to the plate swinging because two thirds of them had the ability to drive the ball 400 feet. That approach probably lost the team 25 points in on base %, but if it returned 50 extra points of slugging %, who cared?

Things are different now. Offensive juggernauts are built on OBP. The Yankees lead the league in runs scored and its no coincidence that they also lead the league in OBP with .367. That's not an aberration. Last year's World Series championship team led the majors in OBP (.362) and runs scored. The Yanks have committed to a different approach and it works. Looking deeper at '09, here are the teams right below the Yankees in OBP: Boston, LAA, LAD, Minnesota, Colorado. The top six teams in OBP made the playoffs.

The O's finished 17th in that important category, a fraction of a percentage point ahead of the Cubs. Here are the Orioles in OBP and their rank in the majors since 2000:

2010--.309, 27th
2009--.332, 17th
2008--.333, 13th
2007--.333, 17th
2006--.339, 11th
2005--.327, 17th
2004--.345, 7th
2003--.323, 23rd
2002--.309, 29th
2001--.319, 26th
2000--.341, 18th

I didn't include 1999 because ESPN's stats don't go back that far.

In eleven years, counting this partial year, that is one top ten finish in OBP, only three in the top half of the majors. If you are an apologist for Crowley, you might argue that it is an organizational philosophy and not Crow's fault. Its true that I am not privy to internal discussions. For all I know, Crowley has been on his knees in five different managers' offices begging for the opportunity to teach a more discriminating batting eye. Five different managers have turned him down. It seems unlikely to me though.

It seems more likely that Crowley is still employing the same hitting philosophies that worked a decade ago. They don't work now though. Today, hitters need to be patient and get on base. They need to work the count in order to make the tough starters of the AL East throw lots of extra pitches. It forces teams into their bullpens sooner. If Terry Crowley can teach that to hitters, then I'm thrilled with him as a hitting coach. If he can't, its time for a change.

By the way, I have no ax to grind with Crow. I hope the organization takes care of him if he does lose his current position. I hope they kick him upstairs, or into the scouting department. There must be a dozen places where a man of his experience can benefit the organization. Teaching an outmoded hitting approach to young players is not one of them.

That's just my opinion as a fan. I hope Mr. Cowherd doesn't find it "ridiculous."

The Foundation

2010-05-16T07:06:00.002-06:00

Oriole fans know the story. The organization made a decision two and a half years ago to trade away some veterans, develop the minor league system, and rebuild the major league team from the ground up. The youth movement was to be the foundation of Baltimore's revival. Here is a quick peek at the active minor league affiliates and their records to date:

AAA Norfolk Tides: 15-22
AA Bowie Baysox: 17-20
A+ Frederick Keys: 21-15
A Delmarva Shorebirds: 17-18

Right now, only one of the O's four active minor league teams has a winning record, and it will be a couple of years before the players in High A ball are ready for the majors. Equally disturbing is the fact that both Norfolk and Bowie have the same problem as their parent team; an inability to score runs. The Tides recently played the role of the Washington Generals to Stephen Strasburg's Harlem Globetrotters. The Baysox haven't had a nationally reported ass-kicking like that one, but their offensive problems run equally deep. It looks like batting help is a long ways away. Thanks to Camden Chat for the second link.

In the big picture Andy MacPhail is following the only sensible plan. The O's can't outspend the Yankees or even the Red Sox, so they have little choice but to out-draft and out-develop them.
It looks as though the fine points of The Plan need a little tweaking though. If the minor league teams can't win, the major league team never will.

First, the "grow the arms, buy the bats" theory needs to be revisited. The Orioles have to fill holes at first base, third base, and shortstop this winter. That's assuming Brian Roberts comes back at something near full strength. Only Josh Bell at Norfolk looks like he can be penciled into the 2011 lineup. How many bats is Andy MacPhail planning on buying? Are we looking at another year of Garrett Atkins type signings? Its time for the Orioles to get serious about drafting and trading for offensive help, even if it costs a young arm.

Next, the O's need to step up their efforts at signing top international players. The team can't keep conceding the best Dominican and Cuban players to the competition. Its particularly galling that mid-market teams like the Twins are willing to put out big money on high quality international free agents while the O's sit on the sidelines. I like Koji Uehara as much as the next guy, but when that is all we have to point to in terms of international signings, we are behind the competition.

Last, in the first rounds of this year's draft, the Oriole brain trust needs to be looking at the college ranks. The Orioles don't need another Matt Hobgood or Mychal Givens type player who might be ready to contribute in 2014. I'm not writing that to pick on Hobgood's talent, I just think the weakness in the high minors dictates the O's take more polished players who can start at the higher levels of the system and contribute to the major league team sooner. All things being equal it would be nice if it were a hitter, but I understand and accept the "best player available" philosophy.

I've been an Oriole fan for a long time. As such, I am like a camel when it comes to wins; I enjoy each one to its fullest and can travel long distances in between. Unlike my metaphorical camel, I need to know there are more wins in the future. It is discouraging to watch the minor league affiliates flounder. It makes me question the direction in which the O's are moving. It would be a wonderful thing if Andy MacPhail could get those teams on the winning track.

On Deck--The Cleveland Indians

2010-05-14T06:13:00.002-06:00

The Orioles just took two of three from the Mariners it in the most unexpected way...through a veritable offensive explosion. In their two wins, Baltimore scored a combined 11 runs. The charge was led by Corey Patterson, Luke Scott, and Adam Jones. None of those guys have earned a positive mention in an Oriole blog since March. In Patterson's case, since March of '06. But there they were, hitting the ball hard, making plays, throwing out runners. Color me flabbergasted.

Now the O's continue their homestand against the 13-19 Cleveland Indians. The Indians are a lot like the Orioles. They have some pretty good starting pitching, streaky hitters on bad streaks, and an injury prone closer. They also have Shin-Soo Choo who is an Asian version of Nick Markakis; .300 BA, moderate power, good batting eye. Hopefully home cooking gives the O's an edge.

Fri, Guthrie vs. Masterson
Sat, Matusz vs. Talbot
Sun, Hernandez vs. Westbrook

Things to Watch

Luke Scott's incipient hot streak. He has four hits in the last two games including two home runs. Luke is a lot of fun to watch when he is hitting well.
Brian Matusz didn't make it out of the fourth inning in his last game, allowing six earned runs. Can the cool rookie turn it around?
Not too many people talk about Cesar Izturis' offense because it is expected to be bad, but he only has three hits in his last ten games.

Best Chance for an Oriole Win
Its tough to predict. Because of youth, injuries, and the unbalanced schedule, these players haven't seen much of each other. Its practically an inter-league game. For example, only six Oriole hitters have seen Justin Masterson before. None have more than eight ABs against him.

I'll pick Guthrie to out pitch Masterson today, just because Guts has the hot hand, having picked up the win in his last appearance.

Trivia

According to baseball-reference.com, in his first innings last year Koji Uehara had a 1.50 ERA, 1 walk against 13 strikeouts and held opponents to a .205 batting average. In second innings, it was a 2.25, 2 BB vs. 8 Ks, and the same .205 opponent BA. I know Koji wasn't at his best a couple nights ago, but those numbers say he will be excellent coming out of the bullpen for an innings or two.
Phillies bullpen coach Mick Billmeyer, who recently got caught stealing signs against Colorado, is a former Orioles farmhand. The O's drafted him in the second round in '85 and he spent three years in their system.
Jim Johnson is out for 8-10 weeks with an elbow strain or slight tear, depending on who you ask. He has been pitching with it since the first game of the season. In a team sport it takes a great deal of courage to admit you are hurt. Many of us would rather hurt a little bit than let our teammates down. Dave Trembley gently chastised JJ for not mentioning the injury earlier, but its easy to understand why Johnson kept quiet. Good luck JJ.

WeaTa is Dancing on the Main Stage, Updated

2010-05-13T18:36:00.003-06:00

Weaver's Tantrum has gone national. ESPN.com asked for 600 words about a struggling Oriole and WeaTa stepped up with an Adam Jones article, posted on Rob Neyer's SweetSpot page.

I did not have anything to do with the picture, but once I got over the surprise, I decided it was funny. I particularly like the comment about how Adam Jones' shoulder pads are hampering his bat speed.

Touche, godofwar625, touche.

Update: They fixed the picture. In the original version they had an image of Frank Gore busting through the line for the 49ers.

The Corey Patterson Era II

2010-05-12T19:55:00.002-06:00

When the Orioles start 9-24 there are bound to be some low points along the way. I think today, despite a great performance by Brad Bergesen, might be the lowest for me. I'm pretty good at shrugging off the Orioles' difficulties after the game is over, but I'm really dwelling on the fact that Corey Patterson is back in the black and orange.

Patterson failed in Baltimore in '06 and '07. Part of the problem was that they kept trying to bat him first in the order despite his horrible on-base skills. Since then he has failed with a few other teams including Seattle, Washington, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati. So the Orioles promoted him, largely so Nolan Reimold could go back to Norfolk and work out his problems. I was in a bad mood anyway when I learned that Dave Trembley planned on putting Patterson in at leadoff. Don't we learn anything?

It seems as if the team is regressing. Just a few months ago Oriole fans thought we had one of the best young outfields in the majors. Markakis, Jones, Reimold, and Pie roaming the outfield were indications that Andy MacPhail's plan was working. The O's could build with young players and start winning games. Now, Pie is out indefinitely, Reimold is in the minors, and Jones has been ineffective. With Markakis and Patterson, we have two thirds of 2007's outfield back. I wonder what Jay Payton is doing these days?

Just a few days ago Trembley was complaining about hitters not having enough patience at the plate. Does he think Corey Patterson at leadoff is the answer? The man has a .290 lifetime OBP. In 2008, Patterson's last full year in the bigs, his OBP was disgusting; .238 with 57 strikeouts to 16 walks. That's our leadoff hitter. It doesn't help my opinion of him that he just bobbled a ball in the outfield allowing Ichiro to score. It would have been a close play so I doubt it will go as an error. Just another thing to make me despise Corey Patterson.

Move over Garrett Atkins and Julio Lugo. There's a new player in the Weaver's Tantrum doghouse.

On Deck--The Seattle Mariners

2010-05-11T06:44:00.002-06:00

The Orioles are through with their tough early season schedule and the best that can be said is that they survived. With a 9-23 record the O's are again at the bottom of the standings and fan discontent is obvious. The team is actually looking a little better though. The bullpen has benefited from the additions of Koji Uehara and Alfredo Simon. The offense is still bad, but has perked up somewhat. The O's split their last series with a tough Twins team and has played .500 ball (7-7) since April 25 against some of the best clubs in baseball. Now the Orioles have an eight game home stand against Seattle, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Its big. Its one thing to lose to the Yankees or Rays. Its another to be beaten at home by three second division teams.

This isn't the same Mariners team the O's played in Seattle. This version is coming off an awful 1-8 home stand. In the 8 losses they scored 12 total runs. Right now, the team is wrapped up in a media flap over Ken Griffey missing a pinch hit opportunity because he had snuck back to the clubhouse to take a nap. You can do that when you are hitting .280 and clubbing home runs. You can't when your team is free falling to last place and you are hitting .208. Lots of Oriole fans are wrapped up in the pitching matchups against Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez. Lee is coming off injury and Hernandez isn't off to his best start. I'm not writing this series off.

Hernandez vs. Lee
Bergesen vs. Rowland-Smith
Millwood vs. Hernandez

Things to Watch

Attendance. The O's had record low attendance in a game against Tampa early in April. There have been a lot of losses since. Seattle, Cleveland, and KC aren't exactly big draws. If you are looking for good tickets, I promise they are available.
Felix Hernandez has been experiencing back pain and had a poor start last time out. King Felix is one of my favorite non-Orioles players and I hope he gets his problems ironed out quickly. Next week maybe?
Nolan Reimold's bat has been coming around. He has five hits in his last five games including a double, a HR, and a pair of walks. He batting average has gone up 28 points in that stretch.
David Hernandez' start tonight is critical to his career. Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are putting up spectacular stats at AAA. A poor start tonight could put Hernandez in the bullpen or the minors.

Best Chance for an O's Win
The easy pick is the Bergesen game. He is looking a little better while the opposing pitcher, Ryan Rowland-Smith is coming of a nightmare of a game in which he allowed six runs in 4 1/3. The Mariner offense isn't going to overcome that kind of pitching.

Trivia

Yesterday was Kam Mickolio's birthday. Thursday is David Hernandez'.
When Griffey comes to the plate, give him a cheer. The current controversy combined with his poor hitting could cost him his job. You might be watching a Hall of Famer's last at bats.
The Orioles have scored 12 runs for Kevin Millwood in his 47 innings. That has to change soon, right?

The Problem with Bell

2010-05-10T06:22:00.000-06:00

Josh Bell, the Orioles' 3rd base prospect, is feeling pretty good right now. After starting the season ice cold, Bell has again shown why the Orioles were willing to give up George Sherrill for him. In his last 10 games at AAA Norfolk, Bell's slash line is .275/.356/.525. He has three home runs in that period including a game winning 12th inning shot Friday night. His 19 RBIs this year would rank second on the Orioles indicating an ability to hit with men on base. Is this the clutch bat the Orioles have been looking for? A moderate hot streak is all it takes to stand out given the dismal state of the O's offense.

There are flies in the ointment though. First, all of Bell's success has been against right handed pitching. Bell is 0 for the season against left handers. According to Norfolk's web site he has no hits and one walk in 12 ABs. That's not new. Last fall, Baseball America suggested that Bell give up switch hitting because his left handed swing is so much better than his righty swing. Also, his 6 errors on the year are troubling although that might just be a bad spell with the glove. I've read conflicting scouting reports on Bell's defense.

Put all that aside for the moment. Imagine that Bell stays hot as Las Vegas summer for the next six weeks. He plays good defense and hits lefties well enough. He is pounding on the door of the majors. Would the Orioles promote him? I'm not so sure because I'm not sure where Bell would fit defensively.

Bell has played third base through his career. Do the O's move Miguel Tejada to make room for Bell even though Miggi has been one of the few offensive bright spots? The Orioles certainly don't want their best positional prospect to have to play out of position or DH. They will want Bell to come up and continue his progress at third base.

It was understood that Miggi was to be a place holder until Bell was ready. Still, I think the Orioles will hesitate at turning Tejada into a full time DH. By all accounts, Tejada has provided a bit of leadership and enthusiasm for a team in need of that. He worked hard to learn third base and has been hitting. Will the O's risk that to get an early look at Bell? I'd be surprised unless an injury clears the way for Bell.

As a fan though, its hard to watch bad offense. Its hard to watch veterans like Luke Scott hitting poorly. Its more fun to watch young players because even if they don't play well, we can imagine they might in the near future. If Bell is still playing well in six weeks, regardless of the obstacles, fans are going to want to see him. It will be an interesting situation to watch.