Darkest before the Dawn?

The Yankees series last week was a definite low point. Even some of the more level-headed and positive observers were down on the Orioles after that one. Dempsey's Army described it as "an unholy ass kicking." In my comments MD Bird Lover called it "gut-wrenching." Camden Chat kept it simple..."this series sucked." What a difference a week makes.

Against weaker opposition our record is better, but that doesn't matter. Its the who and the how that are important. Nolan Reimold is hitting for power. Andy MacPhail cavalierly noted that Matt Wieters would be here on Friday. Rich Hill, Brad Bergesen, and Jason Berken are keeping the team in games. Adam Jones is rocking. The kids are arriving.

There will be plenty more low points this year, but if the MacPhail plan has any validity, we should be on an upward swing for some time. Its an exciting day.

Who is Jason Berken?

I have to confess that Berken has always been "the other guy" to me. In Bowie last year he was the other guy in a rotation that included Chris Tillman, David Hernandez, Brad Bergesen, and Jake Arrieta. This year he is the other guy in a similarly stout Norfolk rotation. With Adam Eaton gone, there is a spot open in the rotation and the 25 year old Berken has as good a case as anyone for promotion. So who is Jason Berken?

Berken was a Clemson Tiger star whose coach described him as "one the best competitors on the team." Despite missing all of his '05 season to Tommy John surgery, Baseball America rated Berken as the 9th best prospect in the ACC. The O's drafted him in the sixth round of the '06 draft.

He didn't look like anything special in his first two years in the minors, posting a 9-9 record at single A Fredrick with a 4.53 ERA. Scouting reports described him as a fastball/slider pitcher with a changeup and curve that needed work. He was reputed be a fly ball pitcher who lost velocity after the fourth of fifth inning, leading to speculation that he would only make the majors as a middle reliever.

Berken broke out at AA Bowie last year with a 12-4 record and 3.58 ERA. In an interview with the Bowie Baysox Blog, Berken credited pitching coach Mike Griffin with helping him "slow the game down" and develop a sinker.

Despite his success, Berken started his '09 season still in Bowie. Here is an offseason interview he did with his hometown newspaper. He didn't stay in Bowie long. Injuries and the pitcher shuffle at Baltimore created room for him at Norfolk and he took advantage of the opportunity with five stellar starts. His AAA record sits at 2-0, 1.05 ERA. His strikeout numbers are not spectacular (16 in five starts) but he doesn't walk anybody and he isn't allowing home runs.

Bringing him up allows the Orioles to give their top prospects a little more development time and it gives Berken a chance to show his stuff. The fans get to see a good young pitcher as opposed to watching the Adam Eaton experiment continue. Bring him on!

O's and Nats contrasting philosophies

Its easy to make the argument that a match up between two last place teams is meaningless, but I think this past series against the Nats should be bookmarked for reexamination in five years because of the contrasting organizational philosophies on display.

Take a look at the starters the Nats sent out:

Jordan Zimmermann--23 years old yesterday. 20 starts at AA, 1 start at AAA before being promoted to the majors in April.
Ross Detwiler--Also 23. Six starts at AA, skipped AAA.
Shairon Martis--22 years old. 15 AA starts, 7 at AAA.

The Orioles countered with a 29 year old reclamation project (Rich Hill), a 34 year old Japan League veteran (Koji Uehara), and one of the organization's lesser prospects, Brad Bergesen. The difference in approaches couldn't be more stark. The Nats are calling up the kids and seeing what they have. The Orioles, under the methodical and sometimes plodding Andy MacPhail, are doing everything possible to leave their most talented pitching prospects in the minors longer. If Baltimore prospect Jake Arrieta were with the Nats, he would be in Washington already. If Ross Detwiler were in MacPhail's organization, he would be in Bowie.

In five years we could look back at this series as a crossroads meeting between the teams. More importantly, watching these teams over the next few years could teach us a lot about how to manage prospects.

No More Adam Eaton!

Every time I turn on the laptop I check Roch and Schmuck to find out who the Orioles are calling up to replace Adam Eaton. By any statistical measure he has been awful most of the year. I only remember one good start. I know I promised to show Adam Eaton more love, but I'm done.

Yesterday I was busy with something and didn't turn on the game until the bottom of the second. Good thing. I missed Eaton allowing six runs and hopefully ending his time as an Oriole. Have the Orioles kept a worse starter in the rotation for as long? I've been trying to remember one and can't. I'm sure if I researched there are one or two out there.

The guy needs to go and I don't care who replaces him. Roch thought it would be David Hernandez. Chris Waters and David Pauley would both fill the spot adequately if the organization deems their prized young pitchers not quite ready. I think they are long shots but I wouldn't rule out Jason Berken or Troy Patton. Anything would be an improvement. If I had a vote it would be for Patton who looked good in a September call up in '07. I'll be happy with anyone though.

There are Negative Nancies commenting on some of the Orioles boards who are complaining about the team's effort. Because of my travel schedule I have not seen a game in over a week until last night, but I don't see it. Even last night, in a game that ended in the second inning, I saw a lot of guys playing well. Nick Markakis had a great game. Adam Jones is hitting the ball so well, even his outs are impressive. Ty Wigginton came off the bench for a good game. Brian Bass continued to be solid in the mop up role. George Sherrill put the Yanks down in order in the eighth. There was some good baseball being played. Just my opinion. Get a better starting pitcher in there and you have a different team.

Here is a link I thought was interesting. ACTA Sports shows that batters are getting hit by pitches more than ever before. Interesting article and timely given that Jeremy Guthrie just plunked a couple Yankees the other night. I was surprised that so many are getting hit now. I always hear about the headhunters of the past like Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, or Early Wynn. I assumed there were fewer hit batsmen in this era. I was wrong. ACTA implies that pitchers are going inside more to push back steroid-fueled sluggers.

MLB package

Phew! Got my MLB back and can watch the O's again. Just in time to see Adam Eaton go up against the Yanks. Ugh.

How wrong I was

Did I type anything correctly yesterday? Lets see...

I'm sticking with my prediction that Brad Bergesen and the O's beat the Yankees today.
Missed that one. Next!

I know the Orioles have been awful on the road and have a rookie pitcher going against CC Sabathia.
Yep, should have paid attention to that.

Still, Bergesen has shown no sign of rookie nerves...
OK, I did get one thing right. Bergesen had a good start.

...and our hitters will tee off in the homer-friendly environment of the new Yankee Stadium.
Ooops. Not so much.

Adam Jones is expected to be back in the lineup.
True, but he didn't have much impact.

I think this is winnable.
I suppose...in a theoretical sense.

And our streak of winning every other game is ten games old now.
And that's where it ends.



Just to show you what a dumb homer I am, I think we can win behind Jeremy Guthrie tonight. Why not?

Brad Bergesen at Yankee Stadium

I'm sticking with my prediction that Brad Bergesen and the O's beat the Yankees today. I know the Orioles have been awful on the road and have a rookie pitcher going against CC Sabathia. Still, Bergesen has shown no sign of rookie nerves and our hitters will tee off in the homer-friendly environment of the new Yankee Stadium. Adam Jones is expected to be back in the lineup. I think this is winnable.

And our streak of winning every other game is ten games old now.

David Hernandez vs. Troy Patton

I had a post all ready to go debating which Orioles minor league pitcher would be the next one called up. Then I checked Roch Kubatko's blog and found this:

Who will be the next young pitcher called up from the minors?

Write down this name on a piece of paper: David Hernandez. If I'm correct, you can take turns carrying me around on your shoulders. He's 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 36 innings at Triple-A Norfolk. He's also three years older than Chris Tillman (he turned 24 on Wednesday). That's the name I'm hearing.

If Roch is "hearing" Hernandez' name then I have to believe he has inside knowledge. The post I had written concluded that Troy Patton would be the best of the young guns because he has already spend time in the majors and because of his 3-1 record and 1.31 ERA. His WHIP is 0.90. I know he is coming off surgery but he is going six innings per game and looks healthy. He won't be any more likely to re-injure himself in the majors than he is in the minors.

According to Roch, the O's disagree with my logic. Hernandez is a fine pitcher and I will be excited to watch him. Going back to spring training, I remember him as a two-pitch guy who some scouts think will eventually transition to the pen. His fastball and slider are major league quality but his change up was lagging behind last time I checked in on him. Also, his control has been an issue in the past. Last year he walked just over 4.5 batters per 9 innings but a fastball that touches 95 MPH generates enough strikeouts to get him out of jams. Here are his Fangraphs stats.

If people in the organization are talking about Hernandez being the next pitcher up then it must be close to happening. I give Adam Eaton one more start. After that, we have Hernandez, Rich Hill, and Brad Bergesen in the rotation with Patton and Tillman waiting in the wings. I feel a whole lot better about watching them than I did about Alfredo Simon, Mark Hendrickson, and Adam Eaton.

One more note. The O's continued their alternating wins thing with a loss last night. That means we whip the Yankees in their new stadium tomorrow. You read it here first.

A Pattern Forming

Over the last nine games, the O's have alternated wins and losses. With last night's win, it looks like Koji is in trouble today. Rush on down to the sports book.

BTW, I'm very happy for Rich Hill for getting his first win as an Oriole. It wasn't an overpowering performance, but it showed promise. He kept his composure when he had base runners. There was no sign of the head case that certain overly dramatic Chicago fans told us to expect.

Is George Sherrill the closer again? Was that closer by committee talk from Dave Trembley just a motivational plan?

Royals on Ty Wigginton

During this blessedly delayed clash between Adam Eaton and Zack Greinke, here is a quote from Royals Review to entertain you. RR is a nicely written blog; worth checking out during the O's/Royals series.

Ty Wigginton could be a Royal. I see the whole package: trusted vet, HRs and nothing else, good ole boy name, no glove, and a terrible approach at the plate.

I have no problem with Wigginton. I think injuries have forced the O's to use him at times when he is unlikely to be successful. We know he has trouble with the better right handed pitchers, but injuries to Melvin Mora and now Luke Scott have forced Dave Trembley to play Wigginton every day. I just put this quote up because I feel that way about the Orioles often. "Hey, this pitcher sucks! I wonder how long before the O's pick him up?"

Speaking of, we may have seen the last of Mark Hendrickson in the rotation. He has been bumped to the pen to make room for Rich Hill. Hill was supposed to start Saturday. No telling what a rainout would do to the schedule and rotation. I'm pretty excited that we have both Hill and Brad Bergesen in the rotation.

Nolan Reimold Comes Up!

The Orioles started the year with twelve pitchers. Now the team has twelve outfielders. Maybe not twelve exactly, but somewhere in that neighborhood. Nolan Reimold came up to supplement an outfield corps that wasn't really injured, but wasn't really healthy either. Luke Scott's shoulder, Felix Pie's stomach, and now Adam Jones' hamstring were all acting up, but not badly enough to send anyone to the DL. As a result, Baltimore is down to eleven pitchers. Tough luck, Bob McCrory, I hope you kept your apartment in Norfolk.

One of these days, all of the outfield crew will be totally healthy and it will be decision time. What the O's would really like to see is any one of Pie, Reimold, or Lou Montanez step up and claim a starting spot. Left field is there for whoever can grab it.

I think Nolan Reimold is in a nice, no pressure situation. If he does poorly, he goes back to AAA with nobody thinking the worse of him since he only has six weeks at that level. He would get another shot in a few months. If he does well, he could vault past Pie and Montanez on the depth chart. He is in a win/win. Or at least a win/can't lose.

Pie is also fairly secure. Even if he loses the competition he will likely stick as a fourth outfielder. I don't think he will lose though. He seems to be doing a little better now that he has some competition. He hit the long home run last night. I've been traveling and haven't been able to see for myself, but second hand reports have it that his defense is becoming much smoother.

Lou Montanez is the one who must feel the pressure. If he plays worse than Reimold and Pie, its easy to send him to Norfolk where he would be out of sight and out of mind. When Jones/Scott/Pie are all healthy again someone will have to go and unless Montanez can decisively beat out Reimold, I think Lou is the odd man out. He hasn't duplicated last year's success and he doesn't have the high ceiling of Pie and Reimold.

Maybe he can room with McCrory.

Orioles 7, Rays 5

The game that asks more questions than it answers.

Question: Who is available off the bench tomorrow? Luke Scott has a sore shoulder, Felix Pie left tonight's game with a stomach problem. What if they can't play? Unless we put someone on the DL and call up a Norfolk hitter, the Orioles' bench would be Robert Andino and Chad Moeller.

Question: Is George Sherrill the closer again? He closed tonight. Was that just because lefties Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena were coming up? Are we still doing the committee thing?

Question: How many home runs can Adam Jones hit? Counting his two tonight, he is on pace for 40. But that's insane, right? Because he only hit nine last year. Right? Will pitchers eventually decide they would rather walk Jones to get to Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff?

Question: Have we seen the last of Mark Hendrickson as a starter? He's been pretty bad all year and tonight he allowed five runs in two innings. On the other hand, Rich Hill's rehab is going well (Six scoreless innings on Sunday). Will Hendrickson see another start? Is he good for anything besides junk time relief?

Bonus question from the Diamondbacks game I watched tonight: What two D-Backs pitchers hit home runs in their inaugural season? Andy Benes and...

Brooks Robinson wins a big one

Brooks Robinson retired in 1977, the year before I became conscious of Orioles baseball. Still, he means so much to the Orioles that his recovery from prostate cancer has to rate as the biggest and best O's story of the year. Thanks to Brooks for going public and I wish him continued good health. No more illnesses please. Brooks Robinson should be 29 years old forever, playing legendary defense and leading the team to World Series titles.

Apologies to Kam Mickolio

I had ZERO internet yesterday (It was torture!) and I missed posting Kam Mickolio's birthday. Even though he has had a rough start at Norfolk (0-2, 9+ ERA), he has a live arm and real talent. I hope to make it up to Kam by putting belated birthday wishes here on the front page.

Happy Birthday Kam! A day late.

Introducing Joey Gathright

Baseball is a weird game. Over the winter we traded Ramon Hernandez because we didn't need him, he was a pain in the butt, and he was blocking a prospect. We got Ryan Freel in return. Then we picked up Ty Wigginton and Robert Andino. With them on board, we really didn't need Freel, he was a pain in the butt, and he was blocking a prospect. Today we traded him to the Cubs (of course) and got Joey Gathright in return. We REALLY don't need him, but he already cleared waivers so he won't block any prospects and if he is a pain in the butt, he will do it in Norfolk. We also traded away the money we could be saving on car insurance to pay off the difference in salaries.


I didn't know anything about Gathright and a quick look at Baseball-Reference told me why. He played his best years for the Royals, the only team in the AL more anonymous than the O's. He is a speedy, slap hitting outfielder who is reputed to play good defense. As such, he will be in line for playing time behind Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Felix Pie, Lou Montanez, Luke Scott, and Norfolk's Nolan Reimold. We REALLY REALLY don't need him.

In an attempt to learn more about Gathright, I went to Royals Review, a Royals blog. They wrote a nice retrospective of his KC career. Check out the whole thing because it is well written and describes Gathright well, but here is the best quick description of his play:

Gathright has one fundamental limitation: he does not hit for power. I don't mean that in the sense that Mark Teahen or David DeJesus aren't power hitters. No, Gathright does... not.. hit... for... power. In any way. None. Gathight looks at Willie Harris with envy. He does not hit homers, ever. He does not triple, ever. He does not hit doubles, ever. In 1239 big league PAs, Gathright has a total of thirty eight extra-base hits. He walks, hit hits singles, that's it, and on most team that just isn't good enough. He's one of the most extreme slap hitters in the modern era.

Royals Review nicknamed him "Slappy Joe," a wonderful nom de guerre that I intend to rip off shamelessly. Anybody with so few extra-base hits deserves the nickname. He is Ryan Freel lite, but we needed him to get rid of Freel. Who we needed to get rid of Hernandez. There was an old lady who swallowed a fly. I don't know why she swallowed a fly...

Fantasy Baseball Q & A

Check out Fantasy Baseball Hot Stove where I answer questions about the fantasy impact of certain Orioles players. I opine on Adam Jones, the O's bullpen, and high impact prospects. If you look through the rest of the blog, they have a good selection of team bloggers answering burning questions.

I'm still on the road, but I see that the O's won a wet one. If all our games could be called around the six inning mark, we might be in first place.

ESPN just interrupted their 24 hour Favre coverage to debate Joe Girardi's job security. I'm feeling pretty good about the baseball world today.

Replacing George Sherrill

With Sherrill having blown two saves recently, I am reading a lot about how George isn't really a closer. I'm reading a lot less about who should replace him. Many fans assumed that Chris Ray would eventually supplant Sherrill in the ninth inning, but Ray is carrying a 7.56 ERA and I can't say I feel any more confident about him then I do about Sherrill. Who does that leave?

Jim Johnson's name is the next one that pops into my mind. For some reason, I thought JJ was doing worse than his numbers indicate he is. I was surprised when I looked him up and found a 2.70 ERA with 7 Ks and 3 walks. I expected worse. Maybe I saw one bad game and that is coloring my take on his season.

I'd hate to see this because he has done well in middle relief, but it would be unfair not to mention Danny Baez. He has closed before and right now he is our most effective reliever. He brings power to the mound (12 Ks) and could certainly make the four out save if it were needed. Memories of his horrible '07 season make this a hard call for me.

With Dennis Sarfate's numb finger putting his short term future in doubt, there might be someone called up from Norfolk to take his place. Why not a closer? Birthday boy Bob McCrory has been sharing the job with Jim Miller. A quick look at the Tides' pitching stats shows that both have been effective. I'd lean toward Miller, who has the bigger strikeout numbers and looked good last September, but whatever.

Go O's!

Eugene, Oregon

I'm on the road for the next week or so helping an uncle move from Oregon to New Mexico. I'll be posting as opportunity and wifi allow, but it will be less frequently than I am used to. I hope to at least keep the birthdays up in the sidebar.

My uncle's new wife is a Mariners fan. I made sure to thank her for Adam Jones.