Walker vs. Beckett

Jamie Walker after a controversial balk call:

No way in hell did I balk on that pitch,'' he said. "That was a horse----- call. I don't know if the guy has a problem with me or what, but it was a (expletive) call...I don't know if he had money betting on the game, but that was a (expletive) call.

No doubt Walker will be in hot water with the league. A couple of weeks ago, the Red Sox' Josh Beckett endangered the health of another player. Video and recap on the link if you have forgotten the incident. Beckett's suspension was reduced to five games which, for a starting pitcher, meant that one start got pushed back one day.

Anybody want to bet me that Beckett's sticks and stones rate less of a punishment compared to Walkers name calling? It might just be my Orioles inferiority complex talking, but I think MLB will use Walker and the Orioles to send a message. With Beckett and the Sox, they were interested in fairness.

OPACY Grass: Too Long or Acapulco Gold?

The Baltimore Orioles lead the majors in unearned runs and are fourth in errors. This team was supposed to be built around defense but so far the results have been discouraging. Yesterday, Peter Schmuck put up an article on the Baltimore Sun page arguing that the grass is too long in OPACY and it throws the infielders' timing off, thus accounting for the team's early defensive struggles. I want to be the first to call 'bullshit', but before I make my argument, I'll let Schmuck and the Orioles infield make theirs. Peter Schmuck first:

Then there is the thing that everybody talks about but nobody in the organization wants to address. The beautiful new infield, with its cool, checkerboard mow pattern, might be the biggest contributor to the club's erratic defensive performance.

Aubrey Huff:

The grass is so thick here that a ball is scorched and you think you have to dive for it and you don't because the grass slows the ball down so much. You've just got to remember the grass here is the longest grass in baseball.

Cesar Izturis:

You have to get used to it, but if they cut it a little shorter, I think it would be better for everybody.

So the point here is that Baltimore infielders aren't catching the ball because it is rolling too slowly? That doesn't pass the smell test for me, but I'm not the one with a Gold Glove sitting on my mantle. Time to put Mr. Izturis to the statistical test.

If the O's struggle with their timing on long grass, surely they were better last year when the grass was shorter. Last year the O's committed 100 errors in 161 games, an average of one error in 62% of their games. This year at OPACY they have committed eight errors in 13 games, an average of one error in 61.5% of their games. It doesn't look like the long grass is the problem if we are almost exactly where we were last year. That approach might have too many variables though (changes in personnel as well as changes in mowing patterns). Time to compare apples to apples.

As I said, at home the O's committed averaged committing an error in 62 percent of their games. How about on the road where the grass is shorter? In seven road games, the O's have committed six errors, one error in 85 percent of the games. In other words, our defense is even worse in short grass on the road.

You can argue that my sample size is too small, and it is, but when you look at the commonsense ease of catching a slower ball and also consider the two statistical points I've raised, I think you have to concede that the "Long Grass" theory doesn't hold water. I have a different theory. Its the "Weak Excuse" theory. Our defense is off to a bad start and they don't want to blame themselves, so in a stunning example of group think, they have collectively decided to blame the lawn mowing. Its a weak excuse for what is hopefully a short-term case of bad hands. It is much more likely that Melvin Mora's injury and the WBC's interruption of spring training is responsible. Also, Ty Wigginton and Aubrey Huff aren't the strongest defenders in the league.

One more quote to look at, this one from Brian Roberts:

I think it affects double plays a lot. It also makes it tough on the pivot guy with the runners bearing down on you.

I have an easier time with B-Rob's assertion. It makes sense that a slower rolling ball would lead to slower double plays. Does it? The O's have only turned five double plays in thirteen home games (38%). On the road they have turned six in only seven games (85%). We turn DPs more than twice as much on shorter grass. Statisticians call that a "significant" difference.

Quick summary: Long grass contributes to errors? No. Long grass leads to fewer double plays? No doubt.

Are the Orioles the Rangers?

On the surface, the Orioles and Rangers seem nearly identical. I would have said they were. Both are big hitting teams with poor pitching. Both have a lot of help coming from the minors, but not much of it is major league ready yet. At the moment the season series is tied 3-3. Except for one blowout, they have all been close games featuring big hits and big momentum swings.

Adam Jones had this to say on the topic: "We're different ballclubs, different style teams." Huh? How so Adam? "They hack." Jones always struck me as one of the smarter players around so I wanted to do a little research and find out what he meant by that.

"They hack." Mark Hendrickson said something similar after allowing four home runs to the Rangers. He called them "free swingers." Are Jones and Hendrickson implying that the Rangers are a team full of Rob Deers, taking big swings that sometimes connect and sometimes create a cooling breeze? Its early, but here are some year to date stats:

O's--99 SO
R's--158 SO

O's--83 BB
R's--49 BB

O's--.360 OBP
R's--.329 OBP

Looks to me like AJ is right. There is some hacking going on in Arlington.

Without naming names, I'm not the only Orioles writer who thought the two teams were twins. Like many other internet writers, I am a fan first and I care about results. I look at runs and wins. Adam Jones is a hitter and he cares about the process of getting those runs on the scoreboard, thus he sees the two teams as being completely different.

Now that I have looked at both sides, I tend to agree with Adam that the Rangers are a very different team on offense and further, I think we are doing it better. Maybe the Rangers can get by with what they are doing in the AL West, but in the East the O's are better served by taking more pitches, raising pitch counts, and trying to get to the bullpens of opposing teams. I hope Jones and the other guys keep it up.

Ty Wigginton in April

George Sherrill was the obvious goat in last night's loss to Texas, but lots of other people are pointing the finger of guilt at Ty Wigginton who went 0 for 4, leaving six men on base. Not what you want from your number five hitter. A part of the problem is that Wiggy is much better against left handed pitching. With Mora's injury, Wigginton has been forced into action against every pitcher, including the toughest right handers.

The Baltimore Sun ran an article Thursday claiming that Wigginton is just a slow starter with a .237 March/April batting average. Wigginton is quoted as saying "Am I concerned about the slow start? Not in the least bit. I know if I get my at-bats by the end of the year, the numbers will be there." Lets take a closer look at Ty's Aprils...

2009 .224/.274/.241 .516 OPS
2008 .250/.304/.400 .704 OPS
2007 .253/.292/.434 .727 OPS
2006 .281/.323/.607 .930 OPS
2005 .145/.161/.200 .361 OPS
2004 .188/.216/.333 .549 OPS
2003 .267/.368/.422 .790 OPS

Looking at those numbers, its pretty clear that he has had some solid starts. His April 2006 was very good and his rookie year of 2003 was fine as well. '07 was mediocre. Throw out '08 because he had very few ABs in April. His cumulative April numbers look bad because two awful starts in '04 and '05 have pulled them down.

The real question is whether his April numbers are predictive of the rest of each year. Unfortunately, the answer is yes. His hot start in '06 resulted in a .828 OPS, the second best of his career. The two miserable Aprils in '04 and '05 ended with .757 and .788. Only his rookie year OPS was lower.

No doubt, Wigginton will improve his current .516 OPS, but looking at his past performance, it would be a surprise if he reached last year's .876 OPS. It will be a relief when Mora returns and Wigginton is able to return to a role that allows him to sit against the better righties.

Adam Eaton just needed LOVE!

Two nights ago Dave Trembley stood up in front of the assembled Baltimore media, who were clamoring for Adam Eaton to be run out of town. Trembley said "NO!" He stood up for his pitcher, saying that he was a veteran who only needed some innings. Adam Eaton, after years of being booed silly in Philly, stood up straighter, held his chin up high and went out to face the Sox determined to earn his manager's confidence. He and catcher Chad Moeller had a new strategy. Throw strikes! So he reared back and threw with all his might! And the first batter singled to left.

In the past, that's all it would have taken to cause a collapse. Not last night! Basking in the glow of his manager's love, Eaton returned to the mound with a clenched jaw and a small manly tear in the corner of his eye. He wasn't letting the skipper down! Gritting his teeth so hard that the muscles in his jaw quivered, Eaton threw again and again, striking out the side. Fans (who started drinking early) blinked their bleary eyes in disbelief and roared their approval. It was a love-in and Adam Eaton was at the center!

Buoyed by the love in the three-quarters empty park, Eaton threw seven shutout innings, striking out nine. He had a little trouble in the eighth but left to a standing 'O' from the crowd. So am I going to write about "what a great pitcher he is" as Trembley suggested? No, but I will concede he isn't as bad as the 11.25 ERA he was sporting before yesterday's effort. That's all I'm saying, because Adam Eaton needs love.

He struggled in front of the infamous Philadelphia fans because they didn't show him love. The Fenway "faithful" hurt Adam's feelings last week. But on a day when his manager and the fans were behind him, Adam came through. From now on, no more bashing Adam Eaton for me. Nothing but love! Until he has another bad start or two. But don't tell Adam about that last bit.

By the way, another whipping boy, Felix Pie, went 2 for 4.

Orioles Minor League Pitchers

After an ugly loss, you can wallow in it or you can look at something else. Today I am going to cheer myself up by looking at how some of the young starters in the minors are doing.

Norfolk:

• Chris Waters--2-1, 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• David Pauley--1-1, 2.31 ERA, O.86 WHIP
  
• David Hernandez--0-0, 2.08 ERA, 15 K in 8.2 IP
• Chris Tillman--0-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
• Jason Berken--1 start, 7 IP, 0 runs, 0 walks, 4 hits

Bowie:

• Brandon Erbe--0-2, 1.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP. Hard luck.
• Troy Patton--2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
  
• Jake Arrieta--1-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

Frederick:

• Brian Matusz--1-1, 3.45 ERA, 18K vs. 7 BB
• Zach Britton--0-0, 1.93 ERA, 0 HR allowed
• Tim Bascom--1-1, 3.27 ERA, 2 BB in 11 IP

Does that make anybody feel a little better? It does for me.

Brad Bergesen and other ongoing issues

Brad Bergesen looked good in his first major league appearance. Not great, but good. Its a sign of how bad our starters have been that 3 runs allowed in 5 2/3 makes him seem like a savior. He's not a future ace and he will have some bad outings this year. I hope fans are patient with him.

With Bergesen's success, lots of fans want more youth in the rotation. If Eaton has another bad start tomorrow, would anybody object to seeing Chris Waters? At 28 years old, the team would hardly be rushing him. He has to be better than Eaton, right?

Alfredo Simon is out for the year, about to have surgery. Tough luck. He'll be 28 in a couple more weeks and this might have been his last chance. With the kind of talent the organization has in the minors, there is no reason to invite him back next year.

Ryan Freel is on the DL and not happy about it. I really feel bad for the guy. The O's traded for him then didn't have a place for him. I think his salary is too high to make him a trade candidate. My prediction is that Freel and the Orioles will have an unhappy relationship for as long as it lasts. On the good side, Lou Montanez came up and went 1 for 5 with a double and an RBI.

Speaking of the outfield, Felix Pie is in the doghouse with many O's fans. He is off to a 5 for 37 start, including 11 strikeouts. I've avoided stating an opinion on the matter because there are so many variables in his situation, but here I go. I can be patient while seeing if his hitting will develop. I just want to see the plus defender I was promised. This team is built on defense. If he can't play D, I'll turn on him quickly.

Can we please rest Adam Jones' hamstring for a few days? I don't want to see this linger for weeks, then turn into a stint on the DL, as happened with Melvin Mora.

Matthew from Roar from 34 left a comment a few days ago on my post about Radhames Liz. This is a part of it, and I think it sums up our current situation quite well. At least as well as it can be in a couple sentences: "They're clearly stocking up on talented arms in the farm system, which is a huge step in the right direction. The next, equally important step is knowing how to manage that talent." I agree fully. Andy MacPhail and his team have done a nice job accumulating talent. They need to find how to best put it to use now.

Al Bumbry Factoids

Its Al Bumbry's birthday and I am choosing to write about him rather than wallowing in our current losing streak. Bumbry was possibly the first Oriole I was aware of. When I went to my first game at Memorial Stadium I clearly remember him fouling about seven straight pitches into the stands. Most or all were caught by fans, leading to the "give that fan a contract" call. I was seven years old and didn't have any idea about baseball players and contracts so the call was a mystery to me. I figured it must have something to do with Bumbry. I was down with it though, so the next time Bumblebee came up I screamed "Give that fan a contract!" Dad tried to explain it to me but I don't think I really understood for another year or two.

Anyway, here are some facts about Al Bumbry that you may or may not know:

• He was born Alonza Benjamin Bumbrey.
• Bumbry was one of only six MLB players to have served in Vietnam. Six seems like a low number to me, but that's what Baseball Almanac says. Lt. Bumbry was a platoon leader in '69 and '70. He won a Bronze Star for bravery.
• Al was Rookie of the Year in 1973, hitting .337 and leading the AL with 11 triples.
• He played 13 seasons with the Orioles. In 1980 he got some MVP votes, hitting .318 with 44 stolen bases.
• Bumbry is a member of the Rochester Red Wings Hall of Fame.
• After his career was over, he was a coach or instructor for several teams including the Orioles and the York Revolution.
• Bumbry recently retired to run his own baseball clinic and help coach his son, Steven.
• Steven Bumbry is a starting outfielder for Virginia Tech. He looks like a good all-around player based on his stats.

The Orioles are back at home tonight against the White Sox. Brad Bergesen and Lou Montanez are both on the way to help out. The pitching bar has been set pretty low. If Bergesen can manage six innings and four runs allowed, he'll look like a savior. Go O's!

It is Hard to be an Orioles Fan

It is hard to be an Orioles fan because we don't know what to cheer for. Should I cheer for Adam Eaton to do well so the kids in the minors can have more development time? Maybe. Should I cheer for Eaton to implode quickly and mercifully so the O's will cut him? Maybe. We might win a few more games and I would get to watch a better pitcher. I don't know.

Should I cheer for Alfredo Simon to get healthy quickly? I suppose I should. What kind of fan is happy when his own player gets injured? On the other hand, it will be fun to watch new Oriole Brad Bergesen pitch. Of course we don't really know how he will do and I could wind up pulling for him to get demoted quickly. He looked good in spring training, but so did Simon. I don't know.

Should I cheer for Ryan Freel's injury to be nothing but a bump on the head? Maybe I should cheer for Lou Montanez to come up and play well even though I like Freel just fine. While I am discussing the outfield, should I pull for Felix Pie, or should I join the hater camp and wait for his poor play to allow Nolan Reimold to get his chance? I don't know.

Should I hope the Orioles finish .500 or should I hope for a total implosion and another good draft pick? Should I hope for any of the stopgaps to succeed or should I feel glee when the younger guys replace them. What if the young guys aren't quite ready? I don't know.

Generally, I don't think any of us know what we want from this year. I'm sure Dave Trembley and Andy MacPhail want enough wins for some job security, but what if it doesn't happen quickly? How bad to the veterans have to be before its reasonable to start cheering against them and hoping for the next generation to do better. How long can Orioles fans be expected to have patience with the stopgaps and experiments? Can attendance go down any more? I don't know.

The easiest thing for a fan would be if the O's put a team out there that we all knew could win and we could cheer for them. When the Orioles field a team that can't realistically win, what do we cheer for? .500? Injuries? High draft picks? In the case of a young player, say Felix Pie, I can at least pull for incremental progress. With Mark Hendrickson? I don't know.

Divisional Surprises

Two weeks into the season, every division but one has a leader who is a surprise to one degree or another. Among the favorites, only the Dodgers in the NL West have made an early move into first place. Which of the upstarts can hang in there and which will fall out? Here are my best guesses, from most likely to finish in first to least likely.

Florida Marlins--They are for real. Everything is going their way. They hit, pitch well, every key player is young and healthy. They have a run differential of +32. The best part is they racked up their early record against the best competition in their division. They swept the Braves and went 2 for 3 against the Mets. They have the Nats and the Pirates next. They could easily have a seven game lead by May 1. If I were still in Vegas, I would be RACING to the sports book to place a futures bet on them.

Seattle Mariners--They were a 100 game loser last year, but I have a feeling about them after seeing their hot start. They have the only defensive outfield that compares favorably to Baltimore's. Erik Bedard and Jerrod Washburn are both healthy and in contract years. They have an energetic new management team and their new acquisitions are playing well. Ken Griffey Jr. is giving them an emotional boost. The Angels are banged up and the A's are starting a long road trip against the AL East. Why not the Mariners in the West?

St. Louis Cardinals--I'm a little unsure on this one. The Cardinals looked better until Chris Carpenter went down again. Dropping two out of three to the Cubs didn't make them look very good either. Its tough to pick at this point and the Cards definitely have a chance but I would bet against them.

Detroit Tigers--I'm not sure who the favorite was in this wide open division. The Royals? It sure wasn't the Tigers but there they are, tied with KC and the defending AL Central champion White Sox. That's with Bonderman, Willis, and Zumaya on the DL. Mostly what they do well is win at home. 4-1 at home, 3-4 on the road. I'd feel a little better about them if they played more home games. As it is, I give them a one in five chance of winning this division. Same as I give the other four teams. The Central is wild.

Toronto Blue Jays--Their problem last year was that they couldn't hit. This year the hitters are in a groove and the pitching has been surprisingly good given the youth in the rotation. Jesse Litsch getting injured hurts them. The other reason I don't trust them is that they built their nice record against teams from the Central and West while the big boppers in the East were beating up on each other. Call me when the Jays have won a few series against AL East competitors.

One quick Orioles note. I don't know why a 2-1 loss feels better than a 6-4 loss or a 10-8 loss but it does. It makes me feel like I am watching professional pitchers instead of batting practice coaches. One more crack at the Sox, then we can get the hell out of Fenway for a while.

Standing up for Ryan Freel

This morning Jeff Zrebiec with the Baltimore Sun ran an article in which Ryan Freel complains about his lack of playing time. The article got picked up quickly on the blogs and the consensus seems to be that Freel is whiny and the O's should ditch him. Since Freel is hitting and slugging .091, that is an easy argument to make (to be fair, he has walked five times and is carrying a respectable .375 OBP). I'm going to stand up for Freel though. Partly I'll do it because I'm feeling contrary this morning; partly I'll do it because it gives me a chance to expound on a troublesome pattern in Orioles management this year.

The O's managers are terrible at defining roles for players. When you go into work, don't you like to have some idea what you are going to do? Everyone does. Knowing that allows us to prepare ourselves mentally and physically. It helps us get the appropriate knowledge and training. Despite that common sense idea, the Orioles under Andy MacPhail and Dave Trembley have done a bad job of giving a player a role and sticking to it. Examples?

• Just a couple days ago I wrote about Radhames Liz, who got sent to the minors to become a relief pitcher, and suddenly called back a week or two later.
  
• Chris Waters came into spring training as a starter, then told he was going to be a reliever. Soon afterwards, he was sent to AAA...as a starter.
• Hayden Penn, a lifetime starter, came into spring training and was treated as a reliever for a month. Suddenly, he was given a start and told he was pitching for his career.
• Luke Scott was confused and a little unhappy at the beginning of spring training when reporters told him he was likely to be the full time DH. It took Mora's injury to clarify the issue of playing time between Scott, Felix Pie, Aubrey Huff, and Ty Wigginton.

Now we have Ryan Freel, who spent spring training taking ground balls in the infield. Once that role was made obsolete by the acquisition of Robert Andino, Freel was left without any idea what he was supposed to be doing. One can argue there is no role on this team that Freel will find acceptable unless someone gets injured, traded, or plays badly enough to free up playing time. Still, why didn't anybody pull Freel aside and explain this to him? Why did he have to go to MacPhail for clarification?

While I am on the topic, the Sun article does say that Freel went to MacPhail with this issue. Why not Trembley, who is responsible for allocating playing time? Two possible answers suggest themselves. First, Freel already went to Trembley and didn't get the answer he wanted, so he decided to try the big boss. Second, Freel was asking for a trade or release, which is MacPhail's bailiwick. Good luck trading him and his large salary.

Red Sox 10, O's 8

Another game, another night spent trying to find a creative way to say that Baltimore can hit like nobody's business but they pitch bad. Danny Baez took the loss, but Jeremy Guthrie was not as his best with four walks and a pair of long balls allowed. Man, we can hit though.

Sox 10, Orioles 8

Radhames Liz Redux

I just got done posting and saw Roch's report that the O's have called up Radhames Liz to replace the injured Alfredo Simon. I want to go on record now about how much I hate this move.

I dislike it from the O's perspective because I don't think Liz is ready to be successful. I hate this move from Liz' perspective. In '07, the Orioles called Liz up because they were desperate. He wasn't ready and he got bombed. In '08, the Orioles started him in the minors because he wasn't ready, then called him up too quickly. I seem to remember that he got sent down again, then recalled? In any event, he was never left in AAA long enough to learn much, or gain confidence.

This year, the Orioles started him in the minors to become a relief pitcher. Fine. Did he learn that in a week? NO!!! The O's aren't giving Liz a chance to get set at AAA before they recall him. I would much rather they call up a reliever with some small chance of success, like Bob McCrory, Jim Miller, Alberto Castillo, even Chris Waters. A lot of those guys come with issues of their own, but I really hate the way the Orioles are treating Liz. He needs to be left in Norfolk to learn the bullpen routine. Liz has a live arm. Lets give him the best possible chance of success.

Better lucky than good

The O's are 6-2 and sitting alone atop the AL East. Its great and every Orioles fan should celebrate with the alcoholic beverage and loved one of their choice. Just don't think it will last. The team has had a HUGE amount of luck.

The Yankees series is the one series where luck wasn't a major factor. The Camden crowd shook up the Yanks on opening day. Further, their bullpen is just as bad as it looked. Its early, but that is a trend that will continue through the year unless the Yanks make a significant move. Yankee fans might argue that A-Rod being out was a lucky break for the O's, but injuries are a part of the game. The Orioles have plenty of their own to deal with.

The O's got lots of breaks against the Rays. The pitching match ups were as favorable as they could have been. The O's saw the Rays' number four and five starters. James Shields came up in the third game, but with Adam Eaton pitching poorly for the Orioles, it was a lost cause anyway. The Rays outscored the O's but lost two out of three.

The Rangers series has been the luckiest of all for the O's. They should have lost each of the last two games. The starters stunk and/or got injured. The pen has been shaky. If Adam Jones weren't on his freakish offensive and defensive hot streak, the Orioles would be O and 2 on the series. As it is, they have a chance to sweep with Kris Benson and his 12.6 ERA headed to the mound for the Rangers.

Looking ahead, there is a four game series at Fenway Park, which is usually where Oriole luck runs out. This time? Dice-K went on the Disabled List with shoulder problems. Josh Beckett got suspended for throwing at Bobby Abreu. Beckett is making noise like he will appeal, but that seems dumb to me. Would the Sox rather have him out against Baltimore this weekend or against the Yankees next week? Either way, it will be a distraction. A little more luck for the O's. Sooner or later it will even out, but enjoy it till then.

Is spring training over yet?

I'm not sure if the regular season has started because we are still trying to figure out our rotation. We ought to have it straight by November.

I went out for a jog, came back and saw that Alfredo Simon had only allowed three runs. I was pretty much thrilled until I saw he allowed them all in 1 1/3 innings and left with elbow "soreness." Assuming he goes on the DL, is it time for Brad Bergesen already? Or do we wind up with Brian Bass in the rotation? Or someone else? David Pauley? Chris Waters? Matt Albers? I had really hoped Bergesen would have a few successful AAA starts under his belt when this happened. How is it possible that we brought 38 pitchers to spring training and it still wasn't enough to protect the young guys? Oh yeah, because lots of the immortal 38 sucked.

Anyway, the pen came through tonight; Dennis Sarfate got the win with a solid 3 1/3 in emergency relief. Speaking of the pen, wouldn't it be nice if George Sherrill could put together a 1,2,3 inning? He's racking up saves with a 6.75 ERA.

Another day, another defensive gem and huge hit for Adam Jones. I know its early, but I believe in him this year.

For your reading pleasure, check out Norfolk Tide Justin Turner's new blog. Its MLB approved, so it won't be as much fun as Jake Arrieta's effort. On the other hand, it will last longer.

Also, there is a new feature at Weaver's Tantrum, in the crowded right sidebar. Its a happy birthday box, because I hate sounding negative all the time. The first Oriole birthday celebrated in that space is Gregg Zaun. Happy birthday Gregg.

Rich Hill and the DL

I'm going to take a break from my usual bellyaching and pass along something substantial I learned. I was trying to learn how long the O's could keep Rich Hill in rehab assignments. I wound up with a long trip through MLB's official rules and Collective Bargaining Agreement. Here is what I learned.

Going on the Disabled List isn't as automatic as I thought. Teams can't just put players on the DL. They actually submit an application package to the Commissioner's office, the player, and the union. See CBA, page 47. Also, the official rules, 3.17, although that doesn't apply to Hill. It is more about players on the DL but still physically present with the major league club. Implicit in the wording is that the Commissioner, player, or union could reject the application. The player also has the right to seek a second medical opinion.

Does it seem unlikely that the team and player wouldn't agree? Apparently it happens fairly often at the minor league level. Chris Coste, the Phil's backup catcher, wrote about it in his book, The 33-Year-Old Rookie. While in the minors with another organization, Coste lost his AAA job when the organization added a veteran catcher. Rather than releasing him, the team asked him to go on the DL with a phantom injury. Coste refused, opting to become a free agent. If the player is compliant though, there doesn't seem to be much preventing a team from keeping a player on the DL for quite a while.

So lets say Hill comes off the DL shortly. Word is the O's want start him with a minor league rehab assignment. How long can that last? Quite a while. Referring to the CBA again (pg. 50), players with more than five years of major league service can refuse a rehab assignment. Jeff Weaver did that a couple years ago when he was a Mariner. The M's were forced to build his arm strength from the bullpen. Hill, who has less than five years service, can be forced to accept a 20 day rehab assignment. However, if he gives written consent, that assignment can be longer.

The short answer to my initial question is that if Hill is willing to stay on the DL and/or accept a long rehab assignment, there is no limit on how long it might take him to get to Baltimore. I suppose sooner or later, Hill will get tired of pitching BP to 19-year-olds. I suppose sooner or later, the O's will get tired of paying Hill for nothing while Simon and Eaton struggle. For now, neither side seems to be in a hurry. Hill is going to hang around minor league camp trying to build arm strength and control. We are going to watch Adam Eaton face the Red Sox.

Coors Field visit

Saturday's 6-0 win over the Rays was about as good as gets. Unfortunately, I didn't see it. I was at Coors Field, surrounded by Troy Tulowitzki jerseys, watching the Rockies play the Phillies. I did get to watch every minute of today's humiliating 11-3 beat down. Yay for that.

Coors Field is one of the nicer parks I've visited. In my informal rankings it is only behind OPACY and the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Here are the high points:

• Nice neighborhood. I had dinner at a good Irish pub nearby.
• Cheap seats! There is a section called The Rockpile that sells out fast at $4 a pop.
• Cool to see the defending World Series champs. The Phils won.
• Good view of the field, even from the cheap seats.
• They have a margarita vendor who makes them so strong, by the time I finished it I couldn't feel the ice hitting my teeth.

I only have two real criticisms. First, parking is expensive and you aren't too close. Parking is always a problem with downtown stadiums. The Rockies didn't solve it effectively. Second, when the don't sell out they rope off unsold seating. Lots of times at games I'll move back a ways where there is room for me to spread out a little. The Rockies prevented me from doing that.

There isn't much to say about today's Orioles game. Let the Adam Eaton death watch begin! I'm setting the over/under at three starts. Its just a question of whether Rich Hill or Brad Bergesen takes his spot.

Unhappy with Brian Bass' performance? Eh, who isn't? Talk about it on the Brian Bass Sucks Forum. I think it is a leftover from his Twins days. Is it too early to start a Brian Bass death watch? I expected him to be around replacement level. His 16 ERA is disappointing to say the least.

Praising Mark Hendrickson

Mark Hendrickson has already done more as an Oriole than many expected. He came in and everybody wanted him in the pen. Hendrickson said he was preparing to be a starter. In spring training, bloggers (including me), professional reporters, and O's management talked about him as a reliever. Hendrickson worked on building his stamina to start. Sure enough, injuries piled up and the man got into the rotation.

Yesterday, he held a potent Rays offense to one run in 5.1 innings. Theoretically, he will go a little deeper into games as the season progresses and his arm gets stronger. The more cynical among us might point to his lifetime stats and claim that his success won't last long. The naysayers might also argue that his desire to be in the rotation is rooted in incentives for starts in his contract. That all might turn out to be true, but for now I applaud Mark Hendrickson for his quiet persistence. He had a goal, he stuck to it, and he made it a reality. Congratulations, big guy.

O's beat Rays

I really don't like most live blogs of games and I never thought I would do one. Tonight I clicked on the MLB TV free preview and popped open a beer and just found myself typing. Sorry. I tried to limit myself to one thought per inning because who needs to read a play by play after the game is over?

First inning

Four games into the season and Melvin Mora needs a vacation. He started with a sore hamstring. Now he is hopping around with a hurt foot. It looked like Carl Crawford pinned it to the bag trying (unsuccessfully) to stretch a double to a triple. Mora is staying in and looks OK.

Second inning

Sometimes I think Adam Jones is trying to do too much defensively. He overthrew a cutoff man on opening day. He just had a near collision with Cesar Izturis.

Third inning

The announcers keep throwing out a stat that Tampa Bay was “only” one game over .500 against lefties last year. Is that bad? I’d dance if the O’s could manage that in ’09. I’d do the robot.

Fourth inning

Today in 1947 the Brooklyn Dodgers purchased Jackie Robinson’s contract from the minors. Don’t ever believe that sports don’t matter.

Fifth inning

Aubrey Huff just got an infield hit, went first to third on a Mora base hit, and then scored on a wild pitch. Is Dave Trembley planning on him manufacturing a lot of runs with his legs?

Ryan Freel’s batting helmet is already dirty. Did he rub it with grease to match his “gritty” persona?

Sixth inning

We are going to the pen awfully early. I thought Trembley would let Hendrickson finish the inning.

Seventh inning

When I was a kid going to Memorial Stadium, there was a cute teen aged girl with pale, pale blond hair who danced in short shorts with the Oriole on top of the dugout. Of course they danced to “Thank God I’m a Country Boy.” I just realized she’s at least 40 now. I’m going to drink more.

Eighth inning

If there were two guys I was sure of in the pen it was Ray and Johnson. Johnson just served up a high, soft one to Longoria. The pen looks iffy so far. I never though I would write this sentence: Danys Baez is currently our best pitcher. I must be drunk.

Ninth inning

I don’t know what to say about George Sherrill. Too many fat jokes. He found all the weight I lost backpacking last summer. He made it exciting with a home run, but struck out the side otherwise. O’s win, 5-4.

Just don't tell me!

I had to go to "work" (volunteer job...no pay) after three innings yesterday. As far as I am concerned, Alfredo Simon threw a complete game one hitter. The bullpen wasn't involved at all. Tex left Baltimore one for twelve. If anything else happened, just don't tell me.

I know the Teixeira thing has been done to death, but I found a quote I wanted to pass on from when Tex was traded to the Braves. I've tried to find a full version of the quote but haven't had any luck. He is talking about how Chipper Jones was his favorite player as a teenager and how he wore Chipper's #10 in high school. "I thought that was the player I want to be!" OOOOOOKAY. How many favorite teams and players does this guy have? In my professional life I have said a few things I didn't mean when starting a new job, but seriously. Doesn't he know this stuff will follow him?

More media criticism

Its a hard time for the national media and while I often criticize them, I am sympathetic of them at the same time. Also somewhat jealous of their access to the game I love. They have to get ratings or page views. That means they have to cater to large markets like New York, Boston, and Chicago. It also means they aim their reporting at the lowest common denominator. Ever wonder why ESPN avoids statistics that are more complicated than a home run count? They don't want to scare potential viewers off with anything they might have to think about.

Having said that, their shortcomings are the reason Orioles bloggers can gather an audience. We provide focus, passion, and depth. If you want Orioles news, you know where to go. You don't have to sit through a half-hour of Baseball Tonight to get to Orioles coverage. Since bloggers don't have to maintain a large audience to meet our low overhead, we can write whatever we want without worrying about our hit count. There are Orioles sites that do statistical analysis that is ten times superior to anything going on at the major outlets.

ESPN and Fox Sports have both tried their hand at blogging, but it hasn't addressed their fundamental problems. Its the same writers doing the same stories in a slightly different format. As usual, the Baltimore Sun is a step ahead of the competition. They have a new online page, The Toy Department, that breaks new ground. It combines the access of a news network with the passion and depth of a good fan blog. There are several contributors, but Rick Maese and Childs Walker have done my favorite entries so far. You want fan passion? Check out Rick Maese trying to pin Mark Teixeira down on what his childhood team was. Looking for a smart interview? Childs Walker put up a terrific one with statistician Nate Silver. Do you agree with Silver's assertion that Nick Markakis plays like Dwight Evans? The Toy Department will make you think. Also, the Toy Department is blog friendly, often linking to local blogs in their "Need to Read" sidebar.

Speaking of the online writing biz, I have been hired as a writer for Suite 101, a website designed for free lance writers to strut their stuff on a variety of topics. I'll primarily be a history writer for them. If you are interested, I have four articles up that you can find here. As I am paid in part based on page views, I hope you find something interesting enough to rate a click. Thanks.

Reporters don't learn

Reporters make mistakes, especially on TV. Tonight I heard Trenni Kusnierek from the MLB Network exclaim "Chien Ming Wang is making his first start since last season!" Her emphasis, not mine. Thanks. Lots of pitchers are making their first start since last season. Really though, that kind of stuff doesn't bother me. If my every word were recorded, the count of stupid statements would be outlandish. The stuff that gets me is when the big names don't get the big picture, even when they should have learned.

Last year the Rays taught everybody that a well run team can occasionally surprise the big boys. Same with the Rockies the year before. Could the major media outlets have forgotten that already? Yep. Here is Fox Sports' headline on today's O's/Yanks game: "Yanks 0-2 after Wang gets torched by O's." The story, according to Fox, is the Yankees losing. Not the O's winning. They didn't learn anything from the Rays.

Don't worry Fox. I'll bail you out. Here are some story ideas. The top of the Orioles lineup is for real. Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis aren't going to bat .619 all year like they are now, but they are for real. Jeremy Guthrie might be the best starter nobody has heard of. Koji Uehara just stopped the best lineup money can buy. Danys Baez started his comeback year by shutting down the Yanks for two innings.

I don't know if this can last. I predict a lot of two game winning streaks behind Guthrie and Koji, followed by a lot of three game losing streaks. Whatever. I'll be here writing about it. Fox Sports will be covering the Yankees until it becomes 100 percent clear who this year's version of the Rays will be. Then Fox will jump on their bandwagon late and hard. I guess that's what Fox has to do in order to keep their market share up. I don't really have a market share, so I can do what I feel. Orioles first, all the time. Sometimes angrily, sometimes lovingly, always with devotion. No bandwagons allowed.

Its a great day to be an O's fan

O's fans haven't seen too many days like this in the last decade or so, so excuse our giddiness. Everybody knows it is only one game, but it is one game against the Yankees, whose half-billion dollar spending spree reestablished them as MLB's arch-villain. Its a game in which $340 million dollars in talent looked like $800,000 in scared rookies. It was like 1997 when the Yankees regarded the O's as serious rivals and the Orange and Black filled OPACY. Could it get better? Yep.

Now Oriole fans have an off day. We'll use it to soak up the win like sunshine on the first pretty spring day. Will I live tomorrow? Well I just can't say. But I know for sure, the O's got the win and the national media suddenly realized there is still a team in Baltimore. Yankees fans are already starting to jump off the bandwagon. Here is a look.

Patrick Smith at Bugs & Cranks is always tough on the O's. Maybe even tougher than they deserve. But now he writes "More than 48,000 fans - overwhelmingly O’s fans - packed the Yards and did everything they were supposed to do." The article is entitled "A Trip to the Woodshed for Tex and the Yankees." B & C also has this bit of trivia. The last time a Yankee starter was so rudely treated on opening day was in 2002 when the O's hung 8 runs on Roger Clemens in 4.1 innings.

Duk with Yahoo's Big League Stew wrote an article stating that Tex deserved some rough treatment. From the comments he got you would think he was raping babies on streaming video. Here is my favorite: "Hey "Duk", do the world a favor and kill yourself. Nobody would miss you." Wow! Have I thanked my readers lately for being rational human beings?

The New York Post predictably creamed their home team, leading with a headline "CC, Tex stink it up in opener." The Worldwide Leader was right in step with the Post, gushing "CC, Teixeira gag in Yanks debuts."

Its a mad, mad, mad, mad world when the Yankee blogs are the voice of reason, but they are. Of course their readers are having none of it. Here are selected quotes from the game thread on LoHud.com. One LoHud commentor claimed that live threads bring the crazies out. That may be so, but its not like I looked hard to find these quotes. If they aren't representative of all Yankee fans, they are at least a sizable minority. Here comes the crazy:

What a pathetic waste of money.

CC = Kevin Brown, Weaver, Irabu and Pavano.

Trade Sabathia! Trade him to his beloved Angels.

RANDOM IS TERRIBLE! TRADE HIM Ed. Note: Yeah, OK.

if they win this i will lick my own poop Ed. Note: WTF???

So much for that paper championship. What an awful team.

what a waste the captain is, this is what makes me sick about him, he cost us this game...

If this was Japan, Cashman would do the honorable thing and “resign”

OK. I guess this is why they say New York is such a hard place to play. We get another crack at them tomorrow. Enjoy today!

Opening day...Yankee time

The Yankees were in town today to open the season. I'll try to keep my anti-Yankee bias in check.

• Here is Teixeira on the possibility of some booing: "Oriole fans are going to boo Yankees. It doesn't matter where you're from, where you grew up, what your name is. If you're a Yankee, you're going to be booed, so I expect a little bit of it." A little bit of it?!?!?! He didn't understand what was coming and it impacted his play. He was 0-4, leaving five men on base.
  
• A related thought is that it was a live, loud Baltimore crowd. On the ESPN broadcast they kept referring to the loud booing. The crowd came through clearly. I'm sure there were Yankee fans there but they couldn't be heard on TV. Good work, Baltimore!
• I hated Melvin Mora hitting cleanup. He's not that type of hitter. Everyone knows it should have been Cesar Izturis hitting fourth. Mora did fine, but I'm still hoping not to see it much.
• Sabathia was bad, but he has a reputation for being a slow starter. He'll get his eventually. Same with Tex. They may not be worth 340 million, but they'll be better than they were today.
  
• The Yankees suddenly don't like fan interference!
  
• What does spring training mean? Jeremy Guthrie had a terrible spring training but pitched pretty well today. Chris Ray was untouchable this spring but looked awful this afternoon. Jim Johnson was shaky in both situations.
• Our vaunted outfield defense didn't look so good. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones both had catchable balls carom off their gloves. They weren't easy chances but we are pinning our slim hopes this year on improved defense.
  
• Brett Gardner is going to make it. He made some nice defensive plays, got a solid hit, and nearly bunted for another hit.
• A lot of Oriole hitters were in mid-season form. Jones, Izturis, Markakis, and Brian Roberts all had multiple hits.
• OK, here comes my anti-Yankee bias. Sorry. I've thought for a while that Girardi's Yanks are soft and play with a smug sense of entitlement. Not the confidence of a champion but the pretentiousness of a spoiled child. Xavier Nady ran through a stop signal from the third base coach, then stopped and placidly waited to be tagged. It contrasted badly with Roberts' rundown which required several throws and pretty much the entire Yankee infield. Posada should have come up with one of Sabathia's "wild pitches." Zaun would have. Cody Ransom let a couple soft grounders go for hits. He didn't exactly dive for them. I'm not impressed.

The final score was 10-5, Baltimore. Looking forward to Koji's debut Wednesday.

Erik Bedard Update

While I'm waiting for the OPENING DAY game to begin, here is a quick update on one of my favorite former O's, Erik Bedard. I know lots of people disliked his surly demeanor with the press but it never bothered me. Its not like I had to try to interview him. He played on some dismal teams that were only watchable every fifth day, when Bedard took the mound. The games were rarely carried on cable in Las Vegas, so I went to the Sunset Station Casino sports book, drank beer and watched Erik rack up Ks on their satellite big screens. Last winter he brought a great return in trade, so I have a soft spot for him.

Of course Erik didn't have the success he wanted in Seattle last year. He was good when he pitched (6-5, 3.67 ERA, 72 Ks in 81 innings), but he missed most of the year after shoulder surgery. Despite that, the Mariners gave him a 7.75 million dollar salary to avoid arbitration. They have injury prone starters and took the sensible but expensive step of keeping them all. He was a major question mark going into spring training and his performance there didn't reassure anyone. He was healthy and successful in a couple short appearances but got knocked around as soon as the M's tried to stretch him out. His final spring training numbers were 1-1, 5.56 in 11.1 innings.

Despite those numbers, Bedard will be the M's number two starter. He is in his contract year and the Mariners would LOVE for him to stay healthy and show his stuff in the first half. Since the Angels and A's are the favorites in the West, the Mariners would love to move vets like Bedard, Jerrod Washburn, and Adrian Beltre for youth. As always, I like Erik and wish him well. Maybe he'll get traded to a team like the Mets and lead them to a World Series. I'd feel good for him. As long as it isn't the Sox or Yanks.

On to opening day!

Happy Birthday Koji Uehara

Koji celebrated his birthday by baffling Washington hitters. Sure, its just the Nats, but I'm still excited to watch him pitch when it counts. Opening day is right around the corner. At this moment, Koji is our best starter.

Somebody with the Orioles stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. They found a way to keep a thirteen man pitching staff and a four man bench. Trembley just won't call up his fifth starter (Eaton) until he needs him around April 11. Slick! I guess that diet soda helped.

We finally make our minor league talent respectable and now our minor league training facility isn't. Crap, that's embarrassing. If there is a silver lining, its that Jeff Zrebiec and the Sun did some old school investigative reporting to put a solid article together. Nice work hombres.

While I am discussing Baltimore media, why is it so hard for me to get Orioles games on internet radio? I have had better luck with our opponents' radio stations.

For the last week I have been writing that Hayden Penn can't help the Orioles and trading him is the right thing for Penn and the O's. I'm not just basing that on his poor spring performance, but on his undistinguished AAA numbers over the last two years. As I have been articulating my viewpoint, Dempsey's Army has been telling the other side of the story. Heath and I have agreed to disagree. You be the judge...

Orioles Preview 2009

I was going to wait on this but I guess it doesn't matter that much who our 12th pitcher will be, especially given how much change there will be in our staff. Here I go.

In a couple different forums I have predicted a 74 win season, a marginal improvement over last years' 68 wins. Now that I have seen a 12-20 Grapefruit league record that culminated in blowing an eight run lead to the Mets' minor leaguers, I'm starting to doubt that. I'm going to stick to my guns though. Here is why:

Offense--We improved a little at shortstop and a lot on our bench. Adam Jones looks like he is primed for a breakout year, and Nick Markakis is still improving. That should be enough to make up for some decline in Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora's production. I'm not knocking those two guys, but they both had very surprising years in '08 and its asking a lot of them to repeat. We should see a SLIGHT offensive gain.

Defense--Everyone says we will be better defensively, but I'm not so sure. Cesar Izturis will help. Zaun/Moeller/Wieters will be better than Hernandez/Quiroz. After that? Kevin Millar was a solid fielder and Aubrey Huff is shaky. We'll go backwards at 1st. Luke Scott wasn't bad in left and we are giving a lot of his reps to Felix Pie. Pie might turn out to be an upgrade, but he looked bad in spring training. Defense is supposed to be Pie's calling card, so he might turn it around. I'm going to predict a SLIGHT defensive improvement, although it could turn out to be a more substantial gain if Pie catches fire.

Pitching--I believe most of our improvement will come from our pitching. We actually have depth! Chris Ray burned up spring training. He adds strength and depth to the pen. The Eaton/Simon/Hendrickson project seems doomed to failure, but if only one turns out OK, we are still in good shape. Brian Bass, Rich Hill, and Brad Bergesen are all reasonable alternatives. When it comes time for our August collapse, Andy MacPhail picks which minor league pitcher seems most ready and we get to watch a legitimate future ace in action. I think our pitching depth nets us the six extra wins we need to get to 74. Besides, Adam Eaton says we are "going to be pleased" with him in the rotation, so we have that going for us.

There you have it. I am fearlessly sticking to my 74 win prediction. Here are a few additional predictions.

• George Sherrill gets traded for a prospect. Ray becomes the closer, Wilfredo Perez gets called up. Our relief depth makes Sherrill expendable.

• Adam Jones doubles (at least) his home run count from last year.

• By May 1, Hill is in the rotation, Eaton is not. Possibly wishful thinking.

• Brian Matusz is the first of the Big Three to be called up.
  

Andino through Marlins fans

Policy at Weaver's Tantrum is to refer to trades by the name of the new Oriole(s). It is a way of looking forward rather than back. Therefore, here is a little more on the Andino trade.

I spent some time cruising Marlins blogs to find the fans' viewpoint on Andino. I got the most from Teal and Black, a message board like Orioles Hangout, but good comments were scattered through the Marlins blogosphere.

Nobody pretends that Andino can hit, but a sizable minority think that he didn't get a fair chance after the Marlins picked up Hanley Ramirez. One troubling comment I read held that Andino had "bad instincts" on the base paths. I'm not totally sure what that means, but it bodes ill on an Orioles team that did a lot of running this spring.

A few asked who Hayden Penn was. One remembered Penn being untouchable in AJ Burnett trade talks a few years ago and found some irony in that. Several pointed out that a pitcher with a tiny bit of upside is better than a middle infielder with a tiny bit of upside. Good point, but it is situational. The O's have lots of unproven pitchers with a bit of talent but few young middle infielders with MLB experience.

Andino singled in his first Oriole spring training at bat then scored on a Oscar Salazar double. Chad Moeller was named the backup catcher, so the position players are set. The only decision left is whether Baez, Eaton, or Bass gets cut. I think Bass is the best of the three but that is only part of the equation along with salary, etc. We'll see shortly. Eaton is pitching and has thrown the ugliest three innings of shutout ball ever. Walks, hits, he loaded the bases once and got away with it.

It will be an interesting decision. I have no prediction.

Introducing Robert Andino

I had a post written about why Hayden Penn should be cut in favor of Brian Bass and/or Alfredo Simon, but that is academic now as the O's have traded Penn to the Marlins for shortstop Robert Andino. Both are prospects who are out of favor, out of options, and neither had a place on their former teams. Here is a quote from our only GM on the trade:

I happened to be sitting with Larry Beinfest when Hayden was pitching and he asked about him, so one of the calls we made was to Larry, asking if he had interest. He did.

Seriously? That's how I make fantasy trades. I thought major league teams had a more complicated process that that. The O's didn't even have to buy him a bus ticket since the Marlins were in the other dugout. Penn just walked across the field and introduced himself to his new team. I suppose Robert Andino was introducing himself to the O's at the same time.

Here is what Google reveals about Mr. Andino. He is a Miami native who was drafted by his home team in the second round of the 2002 draft. He struggled in his first two years, but suddenly put it together in 2004, when he hit exactly .281 in both A and A+, despite 126 Ks. He piled up strikeouts again in '05 but his strong defense, 22 stolen bases, and .269 BA were enough to earn a September call up.

That was really the high point of his career. He was still a valued prospect, ranked 6th in the organization by Baseball America. BA also named him the organization's Best Defensive Infielder and Best Infield Arm. Andino must have felt like a million bucks until the Marlins traded for Hanley Ramirez and turned Andino into yesterday's news. He spent the next three years shuttling between AAA and the majors trying to break into a middle infield of Ramirez and Dan Uggla. He still strikes out a ton for a guy with little power and has not shown any signs of being able to hit major league pitching. His career major league line is .201/.250/.299.

This offseason, the Marlins acquired another young infielder, Emilio Bonifacio, and the writing was on the wall for Andino. He asked for a trade and the team agreed. Here is a quote from him on the topic, via Marlins Today:

That's good. About time I get some playing time. Who wants to be a backup? Nobody. I don't want to be a backup.

Sorry Robby. You'll be a backup in Baltimore unless you have a freakish eye for AL East pitching. Andino will be a defensive replacement and pinch runner. His projections, from Fangraphs, rough out to .235/.285/.340. Since he is out of options, he will stick with the team, meaning a four man bench of Andino/Freel/Wigginton/a catcher. So much for Chris Gomez and Jolbert Cabrera. It also means a twelve person pitching staff which leaves Bass and Baez on the bubble.

In the big picture, the O's got a little younger, faster, and better defensively. It only cost a pitcher who wasn't going to make the team anyway. Here is Florida's perspective on the deal from the Sun-Sentinel.

Hayden Penn gets the proverbial change of scenery and a reunion with former pitching coach Mark Wiley, but will it help? The NL East has its share of good sluggers, and Florida has some good young arms who will be competing for playing time. Good luck Hayden, and welcome Robert!

Nick Markakis top defensive RF

According to ESPN's Web Gems. Nice to see Nick getting some well deserved credit.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4029959&categoryid=2521705