Monday, June 15, 2009

Orioles Trade Possiblities

Baseball Prospectus gives the Orioles a 0.279% chance of reaching the playoffs. Okay, safe to assume that veterans are on the trading block. Its time to start some groundless trade rumors. These are in order of likelihood.

Danys Baez--The O's have a chance to sell high this time. He's pitching very well, but his contract is up after this season and I'll be wishing him a happy 32nd birthday in September. There are several right handed relief options in the organization. He is trade bait.

Possible trade partner--The Texas Rangers are clinging to first place in the West, but they just put their closer on the DL. They have a deep farm system but have been unwilling to part with top prospects. Baez offers a reliable arm in the pen and would probably only cost a second tier prospect. This seems win/win. I hope Andy MacPhail and Nolan Ryan are reading. As they sometimes do. Never.

Aubrey Huff--Big Aub isn't going to duplicate last year's big numbers, but he is still a good left handed bat. Like Baez, his contract is up soon. Unlike Baez, there is no major league ready replacement for him in the system, so the price would be high.

Possible trade partner--How bad are the Cinncinnati Reds corner infielders? Ramon Hernandez is getting lots of starts at first base. Despite that, the Reds are only 2.5 games out of first place. Huff, a noted second-half hitter, would rock National League pitching in the Reds' hitter friendly park and carry them to an NL Central title. Wayne Krivsky came to the Orioles from the Reds and would be able to expedite the deal.

Luke Scott--I've been hearing Luke Scott trade rumors for six months and not liking them. I still don't. Scott is playing well and this is only his first arbitration year. He is a good guy and I hope he stays in Baltimore. Rumors persist though and there are contenders who could certainly use him.

Possible trade partner--The Atlanta Braves spent a jillion dollars on their rotation this winter, then left the offense in the hands of Garret Anderson and Jeff Francoeur. We saw how well that worked out. Scott would be huge for them. The Braves have a top heavy farm system, with a few untouchable prospects and a bunch of high risk/high reward guys. They would have to be creative in putting a package together.

George Sherrill--He is another one I'm not sure the O's want to trade. We don't have lots of left handed relief help in the system. Sherrill is pitching well and I believe he is under club control (arb eligible) for another year. Still, there will be a market for him at the trade deadline and the O's would be foolish not to listen.

Possible trade partner--We love trading with the Chicago Cubs, and they could really use a strong lefty out of the pen.

Jeremy Guthrie--He is under club control for the foreseeable future, he pitched well for two years, and everyone likes him. His poor performance this year has made him into a trade deadline X-factor though. Would the O's trade him? Would anyone give much up for him? A Guthrie deal seems unlikely.

Possible trade partner--The NY Mets desperately need a financially cheap way to bolster their rotation. Guthrie is that, but MacPhail will ask for an inflated price in prospects. My impression is that their farm system hasn't recovered from the Santana trade yet. A deal would be tough to make but not impossible.

Other Veterans:
Melvin Mora--No-trade clause.
Brian Roberts--Just resigned.
Ty Wigginton--Maybe, if he heats up.
Cesar Izturis--Is anybody THAT impressed with Robert Andino? Nah.
Mark Hendrickson--Does anyone want him? Anyone?
Gregg Zaun--Orioles are serious about Zaun mentoring Matt Wieters. He stays.
Koji Uehara--He would make an interesting trade chip. He's shown the ability to get major league hitters out. He just hasn't shown the stamina to be a starter. Lots of teams could use him. I think he O's want to keep him in order to make themselves more attractive to other Japanese players. He'll stay through the year.

3 comments:

Zach said...

People are freaking out about these trades. You've got to trust Andy Mac! He's not going to deal our guys for just anyone. I think Huff will probably go, but Luke Scott better bring in some pretty amazing players.

Dave Mc said...

Outside of the Bradford trade, which was more a salary dump, I've liked all MacPhail's trades so far.

I think Baez will go...Huff and Scott less likely but certainly possible. They'll command a high price in prospects.

mdbirdlover said...

Cool hand Luke ain't going nowhere.

Don't know how much we'd get for huff-daddy.
Remember last year with Roberts and look how that landed? Not that Huff is Roberts by any stretch, but still...does MacPhail have a good handle on what he can get for Huff? Perhaps not the best parallel but my point is Huff might not command as much as MacPahil would want.

I think I am going to do my damndest to ignore trade rumors until they become fact.
Whoops, guess I've blown that already.

good post, as always.