Sexson? Nah.

I don't believe the O's have any interest in Richie Sexson. We have Oscar Salazar in house and Kevin Millar waiting for our call. Salazar isn't young, but he is still young enough to surprise us. Millar hit 20 dingers last year, is a great guy, and has a solid glove at first. Sexson is old, plays poor defense, and his offensive numbers fell off a cliff two years ago. He was suspended once last year, benched once, and cut twice including being cut by a 100 loss team. I'm just not buying the current round of Sexson rumors.

Here is what I think happened. Sexson's agent was calling around trying to figure out somewhere for his client. Somebody in the O's office said something non-committal like "We haven't made any decisions about first base yet." Or "We'll think about it and let you know." The agent hadn't had any other bites so he rushed to publicize the exchange, characterizing it as interest on the part of Baltimore. If I'm wrong and Sexson gets a minor league contract with ST invite, fine. I don't care if we throw a hundred of those things around. If I'm altogether wrong and Sexson gets handed a major league contract? I'll save my anger for when it happens. There is enough to be angry about already without inventing things.

Off topic, the Cubs signed Aaron Miles which means at least two of their army of undistinguished middle infielders are expendable. Brace yourself for another round of Peavy/Roberts/Pie/Olson trade rumors. Yay!

I Should Know Better

I learned my lesson. The Orioles aren't going to spend money this winter unless they are sure they are getting a great deal. We are going to settle for the Hendricksons of the world and maybe a Looper if we are lucky. I know that. But a prerequisite for being an Orioles fan in these dark days is a propensity for baseless optimism. Its what keeps me going.

Two Cuban ballplayers crept off the island and are on their way to the Dominican Republic in search of major league contracts. Yadel Marti (29? Looks older) is a stud pitcher who dominated the World Baseball Classic (0 runs in 12 2/3 innings) in '06. Yasser Gomez (28) is a speed and contact outfielder. They haven't played much recently after an earlier attempt to flee Cuba was discovered. I read that and I instantly fantasized that Andy Mac was catching a flight straight from his Florida vacation to the D.R. with contracts and fancy pens for the signing all ready. I know it won't happen. The White Sox have done a really good job grabbing Cuban defectors lately. They probably have the inside track. That is a shame because Cuba will be the next big market for foreign free agents.

Based on their decrepit appearance, it won't be long before the Castros are done ruling Cuba. When that happens, it is almost certain that the US and Cuba will resume their historically close trade relations. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see what that means for baseball. The worst players on the Cuban National Team would start for any AAA ball club in the States. The better ones, like Marti and Gomez, would head straight for the majors. With major league developmental money going to the island, baseball mad Cubans would make Japan and the D.R. look like Saharan Egypt in terms of producing top products. I'm dreaming of the O's overpaying Marti, treating him like the King of Baltimore and positioning themselves to skim the cream of the first wave of Cuban free agents. I know I am often guilty of seeing only the small picture (my own discontent with 11 consecutive losing seasons) but in this case I think I have the big picture nailed. Whoever gets a foothold in Cuba now will have a huge edge in recruiting in two or three years.

Just a couple of side notes. Via Cot's Baseball Contracts, I learned that Mark Hendrickson had $500,000 in incentives for starts built into his contract last year. His contract called for graduated bonuses beginning at 20 starts, building up to a total of $500,000 for thirty starts. Guess how many starts Mark got. 19. Coincidence? Right. In the wake of the Tex debacle, I have found that many smart bloggers blame the player for being greedy. I'm sure they have a point but the other side to the story is that if the players don't take the money, ownership and upper management surely will as evidenced by the way the Marlins screwed Hendrickson out of his bonus.

While I'm on the topic of Hendrickson, Dempsey's Army is doing a disturbing but probably accurate series on how our starting pitchers stack up statistically against Daniel Cabrera. Its not pretty...in fact its sickening...but Heath is his usual statistically thorough self.

WE SIGNED MARK TE...Mark who?

We signed Mark Hendrickson. Who? I sort of remember him from his Washington State days. I was living in Kentucky and watching lots of college basketball then. He went on to be the eleventh man on a couple of NBA teams. He was routinely posterized by more talented guys. No shame there. Jordan never got a sniff of MLB. As a pitcher Mark is a former 20th round draft pick who can almost keep his ERA under five in the NL. Neither the Orioles nor Hendrickson's people have disclosed the terms of the contract yet so it is hard to critique it. Could be all right, could be a bad omen.

If we are talking about a minor league deal with a spring training invite and incentives, that's great. We need all the depth we can get. Hendrickson is more effective as a reliever but he has started quite a bit and is a good insurance policy for either position.

If it is a contract like last years' with the Marlins, we are talking about 1.5 mil for one year. He has a lifetime ERA just over five and a lifetime WHIP that is pushing up near 1.5. I don't see him as a big upgrade over Waters, Burres, Bass, Simon, etc. Especially since he will turn 35 this season and be more expensive than the young guys. Still, he isn't bad in the long man/spot starter role assuming we fill out our rotation. Low risk, limited upside.

If this is our big pitching signing and Hendrickson is going to be called on for 35 starts then its going to be a long year. When the Warehouse first started talking about signing a couple of starters, I got the wrong idea. I thought they meant guys who were league average; maybe one who was better than that. So far it has meant Mark Hendrickson and Brad Hennessey, two guys to whom "league average" is a career year. Rumor is that we are still in the running for Looper, Redding, and the two Japanese cats. I hope we are more aggressive in pursuing them than we were with some other free agents this year. If not, I'll be able to post a pic of Tex hitting a massive dinger off Hendrickson right next to the pic of Jordan jumping over him.

New Book Review

I found a list of great baseball books and I've been working my way through it. I tried to find it again, but I can't. I apologize to whoever made the list I am using. I would credit you if I could remember what I plugged into Google to find it.

Most recently, I read The Celebrant by Eric Rolfe Greenberg. The blurb on the cover quotes W.P. Kinsella as raving "Simply the best baseball novel ever written." Who am I to argue with the author of Shoeless Joe? I read The Celebrant nearly straight through in one sitting. When I finished it I wished there was more of it to read. The story starts in 1901 and centers around Jackie, a young Jewish jeweler who Americanizes himself by playing and learning about baseball. Through the family jewelry business, Jackie meets his idol, Christy Mathewson, and becomes involved in all the major happenings in baseball in the first twenty years of the century. He is a baseball version of Forest Gump, observing but not participating in history.

I don't want to say much more and spoil the book, but it is excellent. Greenberg is a good writer who recreates historical figures well and does a terrific job of recreating the feel of an era. Its very much worth a read.

What's left to say?

The Teixeira saga is over. I memorized the spelling of his name for nothing. Teixeira, Teixeira, Teixeira. I've been thinking that since we can't sign anyone, we should look into cloning Nick Markakis. Theoretically, it can be done for about $50,000. Might as well get Roberts and Guthrie while we are at it. Hell, we can dig up Babe and make his clone train instead of drink. Seriously though, I hope we have a backup plan to Tex. Next year, we could lose Huff, Mora, and Roberts with no replacements on the farm. If we don't figure out first base this year, we have an impossible amount of holes to fill next year. Tillman, Arrieta, and all will have to be better than advertised because we will score about two runs per week.

I'm not really mad at the Yankees. Being mad at the Steinbrenners for spending money would be like getting mad at winter for being cold. Besides, Forbes.com says that the Yanks are the least profitable team in the bigs. That is hard to believe and I wonder if Forbes isn't leaving some revenue streams out. Certainly it will change when the new park opens. For the time being though it is possible to portray the Steinbrenners as good owners who want to deliver a winner to their fans more than they want to turn huge profits. Its possible to say that Cashman is hustling to make their wish come true. Its impossible to accuse our owners and managers of those things. I can't believe I just compared the Yankees favorably to the O's. I feel queasy.

Read Bugs & Cranks on the Teixeira family Christmas. Boo! BOOOOOO!

Dual Book Review

Yeah, two books. When you are unemployed, you have some time on your hands. Taking Roar from 34's kind reference, I went down to the library and checked out a copy of 9 Innings by Daniel Okrent. Okrent spent two years researching and writing the book and it shows. 9 Innings is about one midsummer game in the 1982 season between the Brewers and the Orioles. He breaks the game down play by play, explaining the tactics that each manager employed. He is good at telling vignettes about each player and manager, working the biographies into the action so they are a part of the game, not a distraction from it. A common problem that baseball writers have is how much they should tell about each player. Some books are little more than hero worship, some drag players' names through the mud. Okrent strikes a nice balance, showing the good and the bad in each player. He praises Earl Weaver for being a managerial genius, but also reminds readers of his DUI. The famous one when the cop asked Weaver if he had any disabilities and Earl answered "Jim Palmer."

My one real problem with the book is in how Okrent portrays Bud Selig, who is one of the most important figures in 9 Innings. In 1982 Okrent couldn't have known what would happen decades down the road, but today its hard to swallow Selig as a small market hero. Other than that, Okrent's narrative has stood up well to the test of time. Even when his descriptions are anachronistic, it works for today's reader. For instance, Okrent flashes back to the 1981 Winter Meetings, when clubs balked at giving out $700,000 per year contracts to future Hall of Famers like Don Sutton. The disconnect between that figure and today's free agent fortunes is immense, but it demonstrates that this one game was being played at an important time in baseball history when the owners and labor were still struggling to determine how big a share of baseball's profits would go to the players. Its fun to be reminded of a time when players weren't all multi-millionaires.

While I was at the library, I grabbed a copy of Buzz Bissinger's Three Nights in August. I thought it would be good to read the two books together because, like 9 Innings, Three Nights looks at baseball from a micro perspective. Bissinger dissects a three game series in 2005 between the Cubs and Cardinals from the perspective of Card's manager Tony LaRussa. Before I start, I have a quick disclaimer. I don't like Buzz Bissinger. I thought Friday Night Lights was overrated. I lived in West Texas for several years and in Ft. Worth for several years and I felt that Bissinger didn't capture the true character of Odessa or West Texas High School football. Also, I didn't care for his berserk rant about why sports bloggers are bad. The only reason I grabbed the book at all was because I had just found it on a list of great baseball books and it was right next to Okrent's book on the library shelf. No surprise, I didn't like Three Nights in August as much.

My biggest problem with it was the same problem I had with Friday Night Lights. Bissinger, a graduate of Andover and Penn, doesn't understand his subjects. How could Andover have taught him about what is in the mind of a black high schooler from Odessa or a Dominican outfielder who grew up in a shack? In Three Nights, Bissinger tries to get around his lack of insight by describing the players through the eyes of LaRussa. As a result, his descriptions are shallower than Okrent's. Also, LaRussa comes off as an unblemished hero, a genius manager who lives only for the game. Which leads me to the other weakness in the book.

Even though Three Nights in August is only three years old, it hasn't aged well. Bissinger writes about LaRussa's nightly trips to a St. Louis restaurant as though they were just for a snack after the game. Since LaRussa's 2007 arrest for DUI, those post-game stops seem a little more sinister. Was the genius getting tanked nightly? Bissinger's odes to Mark Prior haven't stood up well either. Prior clearly doesn't have pitching mechanics that should be described as "exquisite, almost without exertion." Ditto to Bissinger's equally loving paragraphs devoted to Kerry Wood. It is unfair to expect Bissinger to predict the injury problems the two pitchers had, but I believe that Okrent would have painted a more nuanced picture of the players rather than the one-dimensional treatment Bissinger gave them.

Bissinger is certainly a good writer, and I might have enjoyed his book more if I hadn't read it opposite 9 Innings, which is a classic. Unless you are a Cards or Cubs fan, I would point you towards Okrent's work.

Dave Tries Statistics

Tired of Hot Stove talk, and leery of falling into the same trap I accused Buster Olney of being caught in...writing BS when there is nothing to write...I decided to try something different. I've been wondering how much an improved defense helps a pitching staff. We all intuitively know that it makes some difference, but does it make a one run per game difference or one run per week? A pitcher with a strong defense behind him gets an extra out here and there. Obviously that means fewer base runners and fewer runs. It also means the starters can go longer into each game since they are facing fewer batters. They might even have a little more confidence and be more willing to go after batters more aggressively. The bullpen gets less work and stays fresher and healthier. At least that is the theory. But I wasn't sure how to quantify it without spending days plugging data into a spreadsheet.

I got a big hand from a Baseball Prospectus article by Nate Silver. He ranked the teams with the top ten improvements in team defensive efficiency (since 1954). I wanted to compare that to improvement in ERA and total innings the bullpen pitched so I did a little research and here is what I found:

TEAM	DE CHANGE	ERA CHANGE	IPR CHANGE
08 TBA	0.058	-1.71	-13
80 OAK	0.049	-1.29	-181
81 TEX	0.046	-0.62	-185
91 ATL	0.039	-1.18	-4
81 DET	0.034	-0.72	-160
82 SDN	0.034	-0.2	86
88 MIL	0.034	-0.79	-58
71 SFN	0.032	-1.18	-8
08 FLO	0.032	-0.52	-67
68 CLE	0.03	-0.59	-22
Avg. Ch.	0.0388	-0.88	-61.2

The 2008 Rays set a record for increased defensive efficiency. From '07 to '08, they made huge defensive strides. That translated into a massive improvement in ERA and a shocking first place finish. Oddly, their relievers threw only 13 fewer innings than they did in '07. Did picking up Wheeler and Percival change the pitching dynamic somehow? Anyway, looking at the chart, it appears there is a direct correlation between defensive efficiency and ERA. When you get a big increase in DE, you get a big decrease in ERA. Its not clear that the relievers get a break. In some cases there is a big reduction in bullpen innings, not so much in other cases. I thought about throwing out the '82 Padres because their numbers were skewed in comparison to the '81 strike shortened season, but I left them; its not like I'm being really scientific with this.

The O's were a middle of the pack defense last year. I have to think that gaining Izturis and Freel while losing Hernandez will help. I didn't think Millar played a bad 1B, but Teixeira is reputed to be better. If we get a better than average defensive catcher and Roberts plays through the entire year, we could make a big defensive jump.

This was a lot of work for a boring post. I may not do math again. Here is a link to a video of the '83 Series that mlb.com had up. That's more fun. Enjoy.

Bangin' on Buster (again)

Wow, Buster Olney is a waste of a laptop. I guess I haven't paid too much attention to him in recent years, but his series on the Tex chase has me reading him and realizing what a horrible writer and reporter he is. ESPN pays this guy? I could name five Orioles bloggers who write better and cite/critique their sources more clearly. They don't even collect a salary. Here is the opening of his most recent entry on why the O's won't land Tex.

Unless free agent Mark Teixeira is willing to give the Orioles a major hometown discount, it does not appear he will be playing in Baltimore.

The Orioles have stood by their initial offer and have not upgraded it, and sources say that the other teams involved in the bidding -- the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals -- have gone beyond Baltimore's proposal for the slugging first baseman.

First, why does each sentence get its own paragraph? I guess it saves time on coming up with all those difficult segues and topic sentences. Second, tell me about the "sources" in question. If they are from Scott Boras' office, that means one thing. If they are in the Orioles organization, that is another. Most likely it is just someone else's supposition that Olney agreed with so he printed it. Olney is being lazy and opaque by not describing his source. Here is his next "thought":

The only way the Orioles can be considered a serious player for Teixeira now, sources say, would be if the Maryland native were to take their offer, which is believed to be for seven years and about $150 million.

This is the most asinine sentence/paragraph I've been subjected to in a long time. Olney is telling us the the Orioles can be considered a serious player for Tex is if he signs with them. I guess that would make them a serious player. Again, an unidentified source. I understand he can't always give me a name, but something like "a source in Orioles management" would do to establish reliablity and bias. Of course he can't do that because he hasn't bothered to pick up a phone and talk to Orioles management. How do I know this? Because unknown Dan Connolly with the low budget Baltimore Sun did what nationally known Buster Olney couldn't do with the weight of ESPN behind him. He picked up a phone and asked a question of a source who might actually know. He called Andy MacPhail and learned that the Orioles are absolutely willing to offer more money to Tex. Thank you Dan, that is how to write news. Buster, if you are going to write opinion peices, I have no problem with it. Just make it clear that you are stating opinion; don't try to buttress your wild ass guesses with unreliable, unidentified sources.

There is no telling where Tex will land. Boras lies to inflate the price. Teams stay mum to keep their best offer secret. Other teams lie about their best offer in the hope they persuade a rival to overspend. You can't believe anything you read. Connolly quotes MacPhail as declaring "Until we are told he is signing somewhere else, I don't think you can take yourself out of it." That is totally true. I think we are underdogs in the chase, but it makes me mad that Olney is burying us before we are dead. That he writes so poorly while doing it is even more upsetting. Its time for ESPN to hire someone who understands how to write effectively on their site.

The Other Side of the Story

Yesterday, Buster Olney at ESPN put out a thousand word hatchet job on the Orioles' ability and need to sign Mark Teixeira. A summary would be "You suck and are mid-market at best. Stay in your place!" Not that I'm angry about it. Today, Jeff Moore at Dugout Central posted the other side of the story. Before you click on the link, understand that this isn't a shallow 3-minute read like Olney's piece. You are going to put in some time with it. If you have to pee, go now, then read.

I can't summarize or quote it effectively because it is too sprawling. Moore looks at the O's payroll situation over the next couple of years and takes a stab at what the rotation and lineup might look like through the first part of the long contract. He talks about the impact Tex would have over several years. He makes a lot of good points and is worth the time if you are interested in that kind of thing. I suppose you are or you wouldn't be reading Weaver's Tantrum. I have two quick critiques. First, Moore is too dismissive of the Nat's farm system, which isn't as bad as he implies. Second, he doesn't talk about the impact of Tex' glove, which I think would be significant when coupled with defensive improvements at short and catcher. Taken together, the defensive improvements at the three positions could shave a couple tenths off the team ERA.

I've hoped we would get Tex, even though I thought it was unlikely. The Moore article says why we should better than I could have. BTW, I don't put a lot of credence into the rumors that the bidding is up to 28 million per year. That is just the Boras leak machine doing its thing, aided and abetted by reporters who have to find something to write about daily. I'm sure it will be an obscene figure though. That's the cost of doing business...no point in complaining about it.

Wild Idea

I've had an idea bubbling around in the back of my head. What if OPACY raised ticket prices by $20 a pop but then gave a $20 per seat discount to anyone with a valid Maryland drivers license? We could even be regional and extend the discount to anyone with a drivers license from a Mid-Atlantic state; Mid-Atlantic defined as any state south of New York and north of wherever. We make much more money from the Yankees and New Englanders so we can sign some free agents with which to defeat them. Yankee fans would feel at home with ticket prices more in line with what they are accustomed to. Everybody wins. Doesn't that make sense?

Adios Danny

I missed my prediction…nothing new. The Orioles let Daniel Cabrera’s contract expire. I predicted the opposite yesterday, but here is the thing. I don’t like sitting on the fence. Writers who constantly stake out the middle ground are boring. Who wants to read someone who irresolutely opines “it could go either way…” I like writers who make strong statements so I try to do so. I thought the Orioles would keep Cabrera because he is cheap for what he brings and because we have NOBODY to replace him. Jon Garland wants 13 million per year for results that aren’t that much better. He might not get it, but he will certainly get more than double what we would have paid Cabrera. Why not keep D-Cabs one more year? My logic was wrong though; you have my mea culpa.

What does Cabrera’s release mean to us as we go forward? I fear that it means yet another Quad A arm in the rotation but I am taking heart in Jeremy Guthrie’s recent statement on the topic:

"I would say, yes, I'm surprised, because we really haven't been able to sign any pitchers or make any trades, and it takes one of the guys out of the rotation. Moving forward, we're going to have to fill that hole."

I’m clinging to that last clause like a drowning man to a Baywatch babe. “We’re going to have to fill that hole.” If I were grading our winter performance so far I would give us a “C.” Just like my performance in high school, we have done what we had to do; no more, no less. We had no shortstop so we got a perfectly average one. We had a veteran catcher blocking a hot prospect so we traded him for players who block no one. Now we have released thirty starts per year and Guthrie is right, “we’re going to have to fill that hole.” Getting rid of Cabrera forces us to go get a league average pitcher and we will have to do it sooner rather than later, or they will all be off the market. There is no choice. Maybe this is the move that forces a sense of urgency upon our regally detached front office.

On the other hand, maybe we’re looking at Guthrie, Liz, Olson, Waters, and Simon for next year’s rotation. It could go either way…

Annie and Thurman

I had a very different post planned for today. One that would contain analysis of our 2010 infield, a critique of the Izturis signing, and a prediction on the Daniel Cabrera signing/non-tender. Just to have it on the record, I predict we keep Cabrera.

While I was looking for a quote and pic to spice it up, I found something that provided the part of my brain concerned with baseball a respite from hot stove thoughts. It is an unused scene from Bull Durham in which Annie explains how she came to love baseball and have a shrine to Thurman Munson in her house. I've edited the scene for brevity. Full original script here. When I was a kid I saw Munson play in Memorial Stadium and despised him for how he beat up the Orioles. I remember him dying and a newsman saying the Yankee dynasty was over. With the innocent callousness of childhood I thought "Good!" As an adult I regard Munson as the best catcher of my lifetime. I know that is probably incorrect by any rational statistical measure, but I could swear he hit about .700 against us in games I watched. Charlie Lau once said "Of all the Yankee hitters, Thurman Munson was the one that scared me the most when he came up. He had that swing and that heart, he was just totally clutch."

Here is the scene and I am sorry it didn't make the movie.

 ANNIE
                    My mother died.
                   I bought a car for $200 and drove to
                   Ft. Lauderdale to bury her.
                   And after we'd sung some hymns in
                   some wretched Florida funeral home,
                   I went outside and something happened --
                   The smell of cut grass in the warm
                   March air overwhelmed me and I heard
                   a noise --tok, tok, tok -- and some men
                   shouting... then tok, tok, tok.

         Crash smiles slightly. He knows.

                                     ANNIE
                     I crossed the street -- it was the
                   New York Yankees spring training
                   field -- tok, tok, tok, was the sound
                   of a ball hitting a bat -- and I sat
                   in the warm bleachers to think about
                   my mother...
                            (beat)
                   And I saw him.

                                     CRASH
                     Who?

                                     ANNIE
                     Thurman Munson.
                        (beat)
                   He was covered with dirt and he was
                   fighting with everybody -- it was
                   beautiful...
                        (beat)
                   And he called the ump a cocksucker
                   and got thrown out of the game even
                   though it was an exhibition!
                        (beat)
                   So I stayed in the bleachers all
                   spring and gradually came to
                   understand what's so great about
                   baseball.

Peripheral happenings

Or things only peripherally connected to the Orioles. First, I want to thank the people who read this blog for being thoughtful, articulate fans. I've been following the coverage Roch and Schmuck have been providing of the Winter Meetings and some of their commentators are ridiculous. I don't remember which thread it was, but one comment began with the phrase "No offense, but..." Whenever a sentence starts like that, you know trouble is coming. Sure enough the whole paragraph was pure poison directed at another comment, finishing with the phrase "have you lost your mind?" Good thing he prefaced that with the "no offense" bit or somebody really could have taken it badly when he questioned their sanity. Since he wrote "no offense," obviously it was all OK and no similarly vituperative response followed. Anyway, thanks to my readers for leaving comments that make me happy to be an Orioles fan and happy to be a part of the blogging community. If I had Peter Schmuck's readership I'd be looking into how to file a restraining order against blog commentators. Here are some non-Oriole things that caught my eye from the meetings.

• New Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik hasn't had time to decorate his office yet but he already hired a new manager and pulled off a massive deal that totally reverses the suckage of the last fourteen months. At a stroke he changed the whole organizational culture. Kudos Z. Now make Ichiro give back that Gold Glove he stole from Nick.
  
• Just because Jon Garland's agent thinks he is worth 13 million for three years doesn't mean he will get it. The market for #4 starters isn't set yet. Don't forget about him. When he is still waiting for a call in early February, his agency will lower their demands.
• I'm really pumped about the rumors that catcher Matt Treanor could join the Orioles. I'm looking forward to Misty May-Treanor becoming a sports-bra-wearing, Orioles watching version of Ashley Judd.
• What caught my eye most about the CC/Yankees courtship was how aggressive Brian Cashman was about chasing CC. Will you be in Vegas? Great, see you there! Going to Frisco? I'll catch a flight and meet you. I don't believe for a minute they are out of the Tex Derby, especially if they can't nail down AJ, Sheets and Lowe. They are determined and wealthy this winter.
  
• Speaking of, aren't we all glad the O's got out of the bidding for AJ before it reached "stupid?" I hope the Yankees get him so I can mock their greed when he gets injured and misses most of 2009.
• Lastly, Hugging Harold Reynolds has an early glimpse of the Red Sox new logo. That's some great investigative reporting.
  

Watch out Bernie

You think you have it tough as an Orioles fan? At least you aren't Bernie Brewer. First, Bernie had to watch his team get stomped out of the playoffs. Then he looked on as the Yankees relentlessly chased after the Brewers' best pitcher (CC), actually leaving the Winter Meetings to shower him with cash while the players union egged them on. But it could have been worse, right? At least they made the playoffs. Besides, the Yankees had to give Bernie their first round draft pick this summer plus he gets a sandwich pick. Bernie likes sandwiches. But the real screw job is coming. Now the Yankees are getting ready to make an offer to Bernie's best remaining pitcher, Ben Sheets. If the Yankees get him, it will instantly knock the Brewers out of contention in their division. Also, the Yankees don't have another first round pick to give up. The Brew Crew would have to settle for a second rounder plus a sandwich. Unless the Yanks scoop up AJ as well, in which case the Brewers would only get a third round pick plus a sandwich selection for Sheets (explanation from Keith Law). This puts small market Milwaukee in the unenviable position of having to outbid the mighty Yankees for Sheets. Sorry Bernie, I always liked you. Except in 1982.

As an aside, Dean Jones did a very thorough write up of the two prospects coming over from the Reds. Neither is a sure thing, or we wouldn't have gotten them for Ramon Hernandez. On the other hand, the Reds have done a nice job of drafting and developing young players over the last few years. As an organization, we are thin at second and third base. Maybe these guys will do us some good.

I don't want Ryan Freel!

HE'S GOT NO ARMS!!!

To read Reds fans debating whether Freel plus a prospect in exchange for Hernandez plus cash makes sense, go here or here. They think more highly of Ramon than most O's fans do. They might be right. Contract year, change of scenery...Ramon could do well there. We clear the way for Wieters, get a right handed outfielder whose hustle was respected by Reds fans, and some minor league depth. Looks win-win from where I sit. So I guess I do want Ryan Freel to come to Baltimore, arms or no. Both Roch and Schmuck say the deal is done and we are just waiting for league approval and a formal announcement.

Low Expectations

The Winter Meetings have started and I, like most Orioles fans, am hoping for Tex, CC, Peavy, and Furcal. Since that's totally insane, I think the key to enjoying these meetings is keeping expectations low. I think that might also be the key to enjoying the 2009 season but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Here is what I want. First, a free agent pitcher to stuff into one of the gaping holes in our rotation. I'm still hoping for one of the Japanese pitchers. Koji Uehara is my favorite.
Second, I want a Rule 5 pick with upside. One of those "first round picks that never put it all together" guys. We probably won't get a Johan Santana but maybe a healthier Randor Bierd.

Anything beyond those two pickups is gravy.

My crappy fantasy football team is on the verge of a huge playoff upset so I'm wrapping up the rest of my thoughts quickly.

• The Veterans Committee put some Yankee I've never heard of into the Hall of Fame. He was an MVP when all the good players were fighting WWII. I'm for making it tougher for the Veterans Committee to elect players.
  
• Schmuck thinks the Las Vegas Strip is overbuilt. Silly Schmuck, the poor economy will just lure MORE self-destructive, alcoholic gamblers to town. Vegas is recession-proof.
• ESPN keeps running ads for the remastered Greatest Game Ever Played. I'm surprised how odd "Baltimore Colts" sounds in my ears.
  
• Hernandez for Freel? Sounds good.
• I just added Koji and Uehara to my Word spellcheck. Where did this burst of confidence come from? Dunno.
  

Book Review

Recently, Roar from 34 said good things about Wait Till Next Year by historian Doris Kearns Goodwin. Since I enjoy Roar and respect their opinions, and because I always do what bloggers tell me, I went to the library and checked out a copy. The main problem with the book is that Goodwin is writing under a handicap. She is describing growing up in Brooklyn, as a Dodgers fan, in the 1940s and 1950s. Its a topic that has been thoroughly covered. A quick Wiki search turned up 34 books on the topic, and I only quit counting because I got bored. There are a lot more. I now believe that everybody who grew up in Brooklyn during the baby boom era went on to write a paean to their lost team. Goodwin not only has to write a good book, she has to tell us something about Dem Bums that isn't already well known. I don't think she makes it.

I found the descriptions of her family life and the closeness of her neighborhood to be simplistic and mawkish. Her parents are cardboard characters, identical to Beaver's parents, until the final chapter. The neighbors all love each other and the only conflict is good natured jawing between Dodgers, Giants and Yankees fans. Goodwin has nothing to add to the Dodgers mythology. She employs the old "Dodgers' move was the end of childhood innocence" metaphor that we have all heard.

Its not all bad. Goodwin's reputation as a historian rests on her ability to tell a good story and she shows those skills here. Her chronicles of Dodger game action are engaging even for someone like me who knows how the key games end. Goodwin gives a meaningful account of how her admiration of Jackie Robinson led her to support civil rights causes later in her life. In the last chapter, Goodwin's father finally becomes a three dimensional character when he has to cope with the death of his wife.

Overall, if you want to read a fawning history of the relationship between Brooklyn and the Dodgers, read Roger Kahn's The Boys of Summer. I still love you Roar, and if you have another recommendation for me, I'll give it a shot. I was a little disappointed in this one though. Maybe I have to rethink my policy of doing EVERYTHING that blogs tell me to do. First though, I have to get the Nativity Scene Finger Puppets that mightygoods.com told me to buy.

Short at Short

At shortstop today, the Orioles depth chart shows...nobody? That's right, just a big blank on the chart. As entertaining as that might be to teams with "talented players" at every position, I think we need to address it. Sadly though, it was a shallow pool of available players to begin with and its quickly shrinking. If you haven't heard, Khalil Greene went to the Cardinals yesterday and Edgar Renteria signed with the Giants. I'd love for us to get our birdy hands on Raffy Furcal if he is healthy, but that is pie in the sky. Both the health and us getting him.
With those options gone, it looks like we are down to Cesar Izturis or one of the Cubs' many mediocre middle infielders. Say helloooooooo, Ronny Cedenoooooo! Lucky for us, while it is a crappy free agent pool, it is a really deep draft at SS. There is a real possibility that three SSs get taken in the top fifteen picks, five in the top thirty. So maybe we can get a phenom who will work his way up the ladder quickly and supplant whatever SS we wind up with for '09. For giggles I did a little research and this is what I learned about our potential draftees:

Grant Green--He is the best of the bunch. He hits for average with some power (.390/.438/.644). At 6'3" there is speculation that he will play third base in the pros. The Orioles have had success with big shortstops before though. The only down side is that Green won't make it to our 5th draft slot. San Diego is drafting 3rd and they just traded their starting SS. Green is a USC product. No way the Padres don't grab the hometown stud. If I'm wrong on that, he is a dream pick. He could be ready for prime time by 2011.
Robbie Shields--He is a Florida Southern player who also hits well. Shields' line is .348/.424/.571. Here are his stats from the FSU website. Defense is another story. 18 errors in 50 games indicates that there is still some polishing to be done, although those numbers aren't that bad for a collegian. Most mock drafts have him going somewhere around 10th-15th but there is no telling what happens between now and draft day.
Ryan Jackson--He is a defense first SS but he hit reasonably well at Miami (.360/.422/.496). Defensively, he has been compared to fellow Hurricane Alex Cora although he is projected to hit a little better. He stayed out of the draft after high school to go to college where he is an honor roll student. Jackson is all over the place on mock drafts. I've seen him as high as 8th and as low as 32nd.
Matt Davidson and Mychal Givens--Both are high schoolers so I didn't research them on the assumption that the O's wouldn't want to draft a long term project. Givens also pitched and might wind up on the mound for someone. Givens looks like a mid first round pick, Davidson near the end of the first round.

We have some choices...its all about getting the right one. If Grant somehow falls to us, I'd be surprised and disappointed if we don't jump on him. Its a good draft all around though. There is very good pitching to be had with the 5th pick, but I keep reading that Dustin Ackley, an OF/1B type from U of North Carolina is our most likely pick. Compares to Steve Finley or Mark Grace. Personally though, if we wind up with a Ronny Cedeno playing short I'd rather we grabbed a first-round talent so we have some long term hope for the position.

Attendance and the Offseason

The above chart is the Orioles' attendance since 1996. Not surprisingly, '97 was our best year in average daily attendance. 45,816 fans showed up for every game. We led the AL East all year and finished with a .605 winning percentage. People loved to come to the park. Since then, its been all downhill. The team got worse and attendance went down with it. In 2001 we had a .391 winning percentage and even Cal Ripken's extended farewell couldn't keep attendance from continuing its downward plunge. The team improved slightly in 2002 and 2003 but still couldn't challenge for a playoff spot and attendance slipped under the 35,000 line.

The anomalous spike in attendance in 2004 is really what I want to look at. Why did fans suddenly return to the park? Average attendance in '03 was 30,302. In '04 attendance increased by nearly 4000 people per game to 34,300. The team was slightly better but the Orioles still weren't in playoff contention. The difference was that the O's spent some money and brought in exciting free agents. Angelos brought in Miggy that year as well as Javy Lopez and an aging but still able Rafael Palmeiro. There was excitement surrounding Orioles baseball and fans responded. Fans actually do come out to see good players. We weren't able to follow that up though. There was no depth on the farm and we weren't able to sign the right free agents from '05 through '08. The team's record has gotten worse every year since '04 and attendance has gone with it. In '08, daily attendance hit 25,000, more than 20,000 people less per game than the team drew in 1998. If it weren't for the fact that some of our divisional rivals travel well, the figures would be much worse. The truth is that Baltimore has already lost its casual fans and is gradually chasing away the hard core bird watchers.

I don't know how much lower attendance can go, or if merchandise sales are linked to attendance. My point is that lots of people talk about player salaries from the expense side but few talk about the revenue side. Good players and a winning team improve revenue. In '04 we signed interesting players and attendance went up. So I find myself more and more willing to scrap MacPhail's "win later" approach in favor of spending money and giving our apathetic fans something to cheer about. It may not be the best baseball approach, but I don't think Orioles fans can be expected to wait another few years for a winner while Peter Angelos' bank account gets fatter.

First, lets extend Nick. The Red Sox, Phillies, Rays, Marlins, and Jays have all locked up a young building block. Why can't we? Second, we need a big free agent signing, which we haven't had since '04. I lean towards Tex, but whatever gets fans back. Third, we need resolution on Brian Roberts. I'm still for trading him, but I'm fine if we re-sign him. What nobody wants is another eight months of trade rumors and uncertainty. That just drives fans away. Last (for now), I'm for signing one of the available Japanese arms. There are no aces on the Japanese market, but that works for us. We need a reasonably priced, reasonably competent starting pitcher and by all accounts, Koji Uehara offers that. Sign him and I think fans will come out to see our new import.

I'm not writing out of anger. What I am describing is free market economics. The Orioles compete for entertainment dollars and they are losing because of the poor, boring product they have been selling. Casual fans are already gone and it will take two or three straight years of winning to bring them back. As attendance figures show, they just aren't in the habit of coming to the park anymore. The Orioles' task this winter is to give their die-hards some hope and some energy. With attendance down ten years out of the last eleven, there is no more room for excuses. The club can't just walk away from the bargaining table when they don't like what Markakis wants. Not if they want to save their fans and their ticket sales.